jday
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 9,321
- Reaction score
- 13,284
Imagine, if you will, that you and 31 other friends decide to play a drinking game. You fill 7 cups with various amounts of liquor. The object of said game is to take 7 sips from various types of liquor before all the liquor in said cup is gone. In this hypothetical scenario, the strategy should be obvious: you want to take sips out of the cups with less liquor first and work your way down to the cups that have more liquor, right? Does everyone see where I am going with this?
If you guessed that I am likening this drinking game to the Cowboys potential approach to this year’s NFL draft, you are correct. I bring it up because I suspect us Cowboys fans may be in for a surprise on the first night of the draft. Why? Because, it turns out the Cowboys greatest needs (S, CB, and DE) also happen to be the fullest cups in this year draft. So, logically, one can assume that the Cowboys may actually draft a player that does not address an exact need in the first round for the simple fact that the player comes from a cup that is not as full as the cups represented by corner, defensive end and safety.
Furthermore, I think we can eliminate DE from the first round all together. Why? Aside from the aforementioned reasons suggesting that DE has several excellent candidates this year, I suspect the Cowboys also feel that DE isn’t quite the ardent need that we fans think it is. They added Demontre Moore in Free Agency, and have Tapper, D Law, David Irving and (eventually) Gregory already locked down. So unless they see a guy at 28 that is an obvious improvement on those five, Defensive End will likely be address on Day 2.
That brings us to Safety and Corner. The Cowboys have already expressed comfort in going into the season with Jeff Heath as the starter at Strong Safety. Rather that is simply posturing or not is truly beside the point. Heath, as for as the Cowboys are concerned, is a proven commodity. They trust him. Anyone they draft hasn’t earned the same respect as Heath, regardless of how great their college career was or how amazing their combine performance looks. Heath will still trump anyone they bring in until that individual proves otherwise after the fact. For this reason, I suspect the Cowboys won’t draft safety in the first round unless a clear cut improvement falls in their lap. Malik Hooker and Jamal Adams are the only two safeties I would feel comfortable as a describing as a clear cut improvement and they will likely be gone long before the Cowboys have a chance at 28. Everyone else is unproven.
So, that leaves corner. The problem here is the injuries to two of the first round candidates, Sydney Jones and Fabian Moreau. Their injuries likely pushes them out of day 1. And the Cowboys have shown in recent history (Jaylon Smith) that they will gamble on these types of injuries to secure otherwise premier players. So the question then becomes will either of these 2 make it to 60 and what corners get pushed down further as a result?
I am not a draft expert. But when it comes to the Cowboys, I do feel I have a pretty good handle on how they like to conduct business in the draft today. Outside of ability and flexibility (e.g. the ability to play several different positions), the Cowboys look for 3 things: 1. Big school / big competition. 2. Team captain / RKG. 3. High SPARQ / athlete that can compete at an NFL quality level.
If you have been watching the Cowboys draft for the last 10 years you can see why these 3 things have become so important. Remember when the Cowboys tried to be the smartest guy in the room picking up premier players from smaller schools? Remember when the Cowboys tried to bring in guys with great numbers at big schools but didn’t have the requisite speed to compete in the NFL? Remember the knuckleheads the Cowboys drafted that turned into eventual locker cancers? These missteps have shaped how the Cowboys draft today. So now, particularly for day 1 and day 2 of the draft, the Cowboys make sure they meet those big 3 before even considering the tape/combine.
With that understanding, teamed with who the Cowboys bring in for visit, you should be able to ascertain a fairly good idea of what their draft board looks like. The only missing ingredient is what the team thinks the other 31 teams will do and how they value these same players. Add in the understanding I attempted to impart with the drinking game example and you can see that there is a very good chance the Cowboys draft will be vastly different from any mock thus far offered by anyone.
Thoughts?
If you guessed that I am likening this drinking game to the Cowboys potential approach to this year’s NFL draft, you are correct. I bring it up because I suspect us Cowboys fans may be in for a surprise on the first night of the draft. Why? Because, it turns out the Cowboys greatest needs (S, CB, and DE) also happen to be the fullest cups in this year draft. So, logically, one can assume that the Cowboys may actually draft a player that does not address an exact need in the first round for the simple fact that the player comes from a cup that is not as full as the cups represented by corner, defensive end and safety.
Furthermore, I think we can eliminate DE from the first round all together. Why? Aside from the aforementioned reasons suggesting that DE has several excellent candidates this year, I suspect the Cowboys also feel that DE isn’t quite the ardent need that we fans think it is. They added Demontre Moore in Free Agency, and have Tapper, D Law, David Irving and (eventually) Gregory already locked down. So unless they see a guy at 28 that is an obvious improvement on those five, Defensive End will likely be address on Day 2.
That brings us to Safety and Corner. The Cowboys have already expressed comfort in going into the season with Jeff Heath as the starter at Strong Safety. Rather that is simply posturing or not is truly beside the point. Heath, as for as the Cowboys are concerned, is a proven commodity. They trust him. Anyone they draft hasn’t earned the same respect as Heath, regardless of how great their college career was or how amazing their combine performance looks. Heath will still trump anyone they bring in until that individual proves otherwise after the fact. For this reason, I suspect the Cowboys won’t draft safety in the first round unless a clear cut improvement falls in their lap. Malik Hooker and Jamal Adams are the only two safeties I would feel comfortable as a describing as a clear cut improvement and they will likely be gone long before the Cowboys have a chance at 28. Everyone else is unproven.
So, that leaves corner. The problem here is the injuries to two of the first round candidates, Sydney Jones and Fabian Moreau. Their injuries likely pushes them out of day 1. And the Cowboys have shown in recent history (Jaylon Smith) that they will gamble on these types of injuries to secure otherwise premier players. So the question then becomes will either of these 2 make it to 60 and what corners get pushed down further as a result?
I am not a draft expert. But when it comes to the Cowboys, I do feel I have a pretty good handle on how they like to conduct business in the draft today. Outside of ability and flexibility (e.g. the ability to play several different positions), the Cowboys look for 3 things: 1. Big school / big competition. 2. Team captain / RKG. 3. High SPARQ / athlete that can compete at an NFL quality level.
If you have been watching the Cowboys draft for the last 10 years you can see why these 3 things have become so important. Remember when the Cowboys tried to be the smartest guy in the room picking up premier players from smaller schools? Remember when the Cowboys tried to bring in guys with great numbers at big schools but didn’t have the requisite speed to compete in the NFL? Remember the knuckleheads the Cowboys drafted that turned into eventual locker cancers? These missteps have shaped how the Cowboys draft today. So now, particularly for day 1 and day 2 of the draft, the Cowboys make sure they meet those big 3 before even considering the tape/combine.
With that understanding, teamed with who the Cowboys bring in for visit, you should be able to ascertain a fairly good idea of what their draft board looks like. The only missing ingredient is what the team thinks the other 31 teams will do and how they value these same players. Add in the understanding I attempted to impart with the drinking game example and you can see that there is a very good chance the Cowboys draft will be vastly different from any mock thus far offered by anyone.
Thoughts?
