@jday
Taking it position by position:
At DE, I do think they would take that position at 28 if they really like the guy there. I get the feeling that they won't be sold on one there though. Once you get past Garrett and Barnett, there are good prospects but I'm not so sure the team will feel like they're first round good. I could see a situation where they like several DE's in the second and may very well, like you said, wait until then to take one (or even later). I don't know if that's a function of them thinking the glass is fuller (to use your analogy) or more in respect to it being simply the way the prospects stacked up.
In other words, there may be a bunch of corners, safeties, WR's, and TE's between their 2nd ranked DE (probably Barnett) and their 3rd ranked DE.
At Safety, I agree with you that they likely would be ok going into the season with Heath and probably a low to mid level FA acquisition to go along with Jones and Frazier. I'm pretty sure they know that wouldn't be ideal and if the right guy is sitting there at 28, I do think they'd pull the trigger. He would have to be well liked by the team though. Maybe a Peppers if he falls. Maybe Baker if they're truly looking for proven, big-school playmakers who have seen some big moments in big games.
Of course, they could see the position as stacked and figure they can get a good safety in the 2nd or 3rd, like you're talking about.
What I think they're going to do is take the best playmaker available at 28. If they really like a safety or a DE or a corner, I don't think they'll think twice about it. They'll just follow their board, which will likely have been stacked with playmaking, RKG, big conference experience weighed in heavily. I think they want it to be defense, but they don't really care that much if it is a S, CB or DE. They have plenty of holes on defense, they need playmakers and they don't want to miss on a guy. They won't reach for any position although they do want defense. They could even go offense if a highly ranked player fell to them... I don't think they'd hesitate. They (finally) have a method... a plan... a direction to their drafting. They know what they want in a player now. Whoever they draft at 28 is going to fit their profile, I promise you that.
So to summarize: I don't think what they end up doing will have nearly as much to do with position as your OP says. IMO, their only real "position" type thinking is the vague desire for guys on the defensive side of the ball... but even the need on defense isn't going to make them deviate from their draft board.
So my guess is defense and if you had to pin me down more than that, I'd say probably a CB or safety at 28 simply because of the depth of those two spots and my perceived gap between Barnett and the third ranked DE. Am I right? We don't know but it won't be long until we find out.
First, I want to make something clear. The OP is my attempt at trying to get into the heads of the Cowboys based on what I have observed from them in the last several years of drafting; not necessarily what I would do. I should further point out that is not necessarily to say that I think the Cowboys approach is wrong, but really it is me admitting that I do not go to the lengths the Cowboys do to find players that meet all of their requirements (e.g. scheme fit, SPARQ, big school, team captain, size/athleticism). And to be fair I only have a vague idea of what those parameters entail, as it is. . I do know the Cowboys are looking for value relative to the pick and since I haven't the slightest idea the formula they use to determine value, I am as lost as anybody, at the end of the day.
Secondly, beyond the approach I attempted to impart with the liquor analogy, I fully understand that come draft day in the war room there will be a variety of voices in the room swaying opinion...hence the name "War Room." As I see it, out of every position, there will only be several out of the hundreds that meet the aforementioned requirements (e.g. big school, high spark, RKG) and grace the Cowboys big board. DE, S, and CB will likely have more candidates than any other position, not only because that is a Cowboys need, but also, as we have already agreed upon, because there also happens to be alot of talent from those same 3 positions that should be available throughout the draft. Meanwhile, all the other positions that the Cowboys have to address will likely only have a handful.
So then, what happens when one of the few is available, while several candidates are still available from the aforementioned positions of need? The first discussion, I imagine, that occurs is BPA. There board is right there in front of them, so clearly that's not a long discussion. But it is worthy of pointing out, because the Cowboys have shown in the past (based on their post-draft released big boards) that they don't always take the BPA on their board.
The next discussion that I suspect occurs is how much separation is there between a guy they can get now and a guy they believe they can get in a later round. From there, I'd imagine, a serious debate ensues...especially if there is only 1 guy from a particular position they like left also available for that pick...and mind you by "like" I mean like better than the starter or backup they already have on their roster. Do they get their favorite and say better luck next year to the other position or do they address both positions in one draft and hope the guy they get later can be coached up? Clearly, there is not a set answer to this question from one draft to the next.
So to be clear, I'm not saying for certain that the Cowboys won't address any of the big 3 in the first round....not even the Cowboys could answer the question now. Also, I considered entering quality of liquor into the analogy but decided against it because doing so would have necessitated a much longer post that most people would not bother reading (afterall, I don't get paid to do this; my compensation is conversations exactly like the one you and I are having right now). But not doing so, did create a lot of confusion for some of the readers. My analogy does not include what happens when a brimming shot of Johnny Walker Blue get's slid in front of you, and you see Crown Royal waiting in the wing with about a sip left. Crown Royal is my drink of choice, but I've never had Johnny Walker Blue, and there's a good chance with 31 of my friends waiting to take a sip, I won't get another opportunity. So, what do I do? I piss all my friends off and chug the shot in front of me with a big ol smile on my face, losing the game be-damned.
So, you may ask: Who are my Johnny Walker Blue equivalents? So glad you asked (In no particular order):
1. Myles Garrett
2. Malik Hooker
3. Marshon Lattimore
4. Marlon Humphrey
If a QB, WR, RB, even TE (or any other position) falls into our lap, I'm on the phone seeing if I can pick up my missing 5th rounder for a short drop into the second round...very short drop, because I'm hoping Obi Melifonwu will still be available and also I'm hoping to use that 5th on Donnell Pumphrey.
As for Jabril Peppers, I get the appeal. He is an explosive, heady, wrap-up tackler...he reminds me of Church and Lee in his ability to diagnose plays, sift through traffic and deliver the big hit. He played alot of positions in college, which suggest position flex, which we all know the Cowboys like. Trouble is, how many of those positions will he play in the NFL? I don't see him as a great returner in the NFL. Clearly he won't play linebacker, as he did in college. And most scouting sites I have looked at says he struggles in coverage (also like Church), which means him sliding down to corner could be a liability for the Cowboys. He had one interception in three years. Even if opportunities were less than the other candidates, that is still a staggeringly low number for a team that wants to improve in turnovers.
Meanwhile, watch Obi's tape. There are definite similarities in their game, in that, while not as explosive, Obi diagnosis well, sifts through blocks, and makes wrap up tackles. Add to that 8 interceptions over 4 years. Furthermore, he has great size and athleticism to cause all kinds of problems for opposing QB's in jump ball situations.
Granted, if the Cowboys draft Obi at 28, it might be considered a reach considering the level of competition he played against in college. I get that, which is why I'm hoping they can trade down and still get him. But I honestly would not be that upset if they went ahead and took him at 28.
But like I said in my first response setting this response up, you and I agree on most points.
