Reverend Conehead
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Yes, this is the consensus among those who studied the period but it is still speculation. There is no way to get the definitive answer. And again, hundreds of others on the train would die and we have no way of knowing what effect that would have on the future. Consider this, even the train destroyed in the wreckage could be an important link to future events that would be altered. The possibilities are infinite, and not all good.
You're right. It's not a guarantee that things would be better or that von Papen would have been Chancellor. It would be really interesting if there were some way that we could know.
Another thought is this:
Wait till Hitler is a struggling artist in Vienna and gets rejected twice by the art school there, then offer him a scholarship to an art school in America. Then maybe he becomes an artist and stays out of politics.