My thoughts on the runners on the roster

[darthseinfeld]

Not meant to be a " we are good at HB" or " we need a HB thread' I just want to kick start some discussion about the guys we do have.

Joe Randle: Randle seems to he the front runner right now. Had alot of success in limited carries. Not a power runner like Murray, more of a slasher. I running style I would compare him to a less powerful Fred Jackson. Functional all 3 downs, but I dont see him as a plus blocker or reciever.

Ryan Willams: To me he is Randles biggest competitior. Physically a superior talent, but it hasnt translated in the NFL. Has a good blend of quickness, agility and power and runs hard however to challenge for the starting job he will have to display vision. He ran behind a poor line in Arizona so its hard to really guage his vision at the pro level. McFaddens presence makes his question marks in pass pro and as a receiver easier to live with.

Darren McFadden : A very valuable addition however I don't feel it will be as a lead back, but as a 3rd down back. Been a very long time since he was an effective runner and is way to injury prone to be counted on. However he is an excellent pass protector and excellent reciever. Limiting his carries may provide more juice in his legs. Will be interesting to see how fast and quick he looks and how much injuries has taken its toll on him

Lance Dunbar- Still a very interesting player, but will have to show significant improvement in ball security and as a pass blocker to make the 53 again. Not sure we keep 4 again

Synjyn Days- Long shot for the 53, but is the type of runner ( power) we lack. Is also considered a strong fit in a zone blocking system. If he showes up in pass pro and as a receiver he could be a real darkhorse to make the roster.

 

[Risen Star]

You're a little higher on these guys than I am, but I agree that Williams is the best pure runner. If he can't protect Romo though, you can't have him on the field. I don't know if a player whose been in the league for years suddenly becomes good at picking up the blitz.

Randle's my hope. If only to give them production for one year until we can add talent in the offseason.

 

[xwalker]

Not meant to be a " we are good at HB" or " we need a HB thread' I just want to kick start some discussion about the guys we do have.

I really don't know who is most likely to be the starter. It could be any of the top 3.

Joe Randle: Randle seems to he the front runner right now. Had alot of success in limited carries. Not a power runner like Murray, more of a slasher. I running style I would compare him to a less powerful Fred Jackson. Functional all 3 downs, but I dont see him as a plus blocker or reciever.
I think they are treating it as if Randle is in the lead to be the starter to help him get mentally prepared and to see how he handles it. Some players perform best when they are the starter because of their mental/emotional makeup. I could see Randle being one of those types.

Ryan Willams: To me he is Randles biggest competitior. Physically a superior talent, but it hasnt translated in the NFL. Has a good blend of quickness, agility and power and runs hard however to challenge for the starting job he will have to display vision. He ran behind a poor line in Arizona so its hard to really guage his vision at the pro level. McFaddens presence makes his question marks in pass pro and as a receiver easier to live with.
He is talented. The questions are health, pass blocking and special teams. If he is #1 then ST is not and issue. If he is #3 then ST is a major issue. They've had him focused on Pass Blocking for almost a full year now. I don't know if he will ever be a plus pass blocker, but he should be much better now. Can he stay healthy?

Darren McFadden : A very valuable addition however I don't feel it will be as a lead back, but as a 3rd down back. Been a very long time since he was an effective runner and is way to injury prone to be counted on. However he is an excellent pass protector and excellent reciever. Limiting his carries may provide more juice in his legs. Will be interesting to see how fast and quick he looks and how much injuries has taken its toll on him.
I would not rule out him being the starter. Two things are certain. He is a terrific pass blocker and terrific receiver. I've reviewed several of his games on the All-22. I focused on 2014 but also reviewed some previous seasons. He still appears to be very fast and much faster than Murray. Health is obviously the top question with him. I would not want to see him play too many snaps.

Lance Dunbar- Still a very interesting player, but will have to show significant improvement in ball security and as a pass blocker to make the 53 again. Not sure we keep 4 again.
I could see them keeping 4. I don't expect them to, but it could easily happen. Dunbar is a decent ST player and could return Kicks if needed. He is exciting as a receiver but McFadden probably gets those types of plays now. Dunbar could almost be a slot WR.

Synjyn Days- Long shot for the 53, but is the type of runner ( power) we lack. Is also considered a strong fit in a zone blocking system. If he showes up in pass pro and as a receiver he could be a real darkhorse to make the roster.
They can keep him on the PS. Could he become a FB or H-back? His position in the triple option had some similarities to a FB. I would prefer a multi-dimensional type FB that is threat as a runner and receiver over a guy like Clutts.

 

[CCBoy]

All stated, even without a pre race favorite, there could well be two backs at about the 1000 running total for the season. And that would be as strong a horse running as was Murray last season.

 

[darthseinfeld]

You're a little higher on these guys than I am, but I agree that Williams is the best pure runner. If he can't protect Romo though, you can't have him on the field. I don't know if a player whose been in the league for years suddenly becomes good at picking up the blitz.

Randle's my hope. If only to give them production for one year until we can add talent in the offseason.

Im not that high on them really. Id rather get a better back in here, but for the purposes of the thread I just wanted to focus on what we have.

I think Randle can get 1,200 yards in a shade under 300 carries.

 

[Risen Star]

Im not that high on them really. Id rather get a better back in here, but for the purposes of the thread I just wanted to focus on what we have.

I think Randle can get 1,200 yards in a shade under 300 carries.

Which would have placed him 7th in the league in rushing last year.

You're higher on him than I am.

 

[xwalker]

Im not that high on them really. Id rather get a better back in here, but for the purposes of the thread I just wanted to focus on what we have.

I think Randle can get 1,200 yards in a shade under 300 carries.

I really like them from a talent perspective. Injuries are my top concern with this group but it was also a big concern with Murray.

 

[Broges74]

Go look at the stats in a limited role of Choice and tell me Randle can project to a starter.

 

[xwalker]

Go look at the stats in a limited role of Choice and tell me Randle can project to a starter.

Tashard Choice?
Randle
5 rushing TDs in 2 years (2.5 per year)
6.7 average in 2nd season

Choice
10 rushing TDs in 10 years (1 per year)
5.5 average in 2nd season

 

[AzorAhai]

Go look at the stats in a limited role of Choice and tell me Randle can project to a starter.

Yup, because b/u RBs never step in to be a starter. The absurdity of anyone to assume a b/u could ever step in and be productive. If they don't start from game 1 of rookie year, might as well cut them because they'll never be any good.

Oh and BTW, nearly every RB people have wanted to trade for outside of AP is a b/u with limited snaps. Grass is always greener I suppose.

 

[Broges74]

Tashard Choice?
Randle
5 rushing TDs in 2 years (2.5 per year)
6.7 average in 2nd season

Choice
10 rushing TDs in 10 years (1 per year)
5.5 average in 2nd season

8 tds in 3 years with the Cowboys. 5.1 and 5.5 YPC for the Cowboys the first 2 seasons in more carries.

Come'on man.

 

[AzorAhai]

Not meant to be a " we are good at HB" or " we need a HB thread' I just want to kick start some discussion about the guys we do have.

Joe Randle: Randle seems to he the front runner right now. Had alot of success in limited carries. Not a power runner like Murray, more of a slasher. I running style I would compare him to a less powerful Fred Jackson. Functional all 3 downs, but I dont see him as a plus blocker or reciever.

Ryan Willams: To me he is Randles biggest competitior. Physically a superior talent, but it hasnt translated in the NFL. Has a good blend of quickness, agility and power and runs hard however to challenge for the starting job he will have to display vision. He ran behind a poor line in Arizona so its hard to really guage his vision at the pro level. McFaddens presence makes his question marks in pass pro and as a receiver easier to live with.

Darren McFadden : A very valuable addition however I don't feel it will be as a lead back, but as a 3rd down back. Been a very long time since he was an effective runner and is way to injury prone to be counted on. However he is an excellent pass protector and excellent reciever. Limiting his carries may provide more juice in his legs. Will be interesting to see how fast and quick he looks and how much injuries has taken its toll on him

Lance Dunbar- Still a very interesting player, but will have to show significant improvement in ball security and as a pass blocker to make the 53 again. Not sure we keep 4 again

Synjyn Days- Long shot for the 53, but is the type of runner ( power) we lack. Is also considered a strong fit in a zone blocking system. If he showes up in pass pro and as a receiver he could be a real darkhorse to make the roster.

Nice write up. I think they're talented enough to be productive and get them through the year and can't argue with most of your descriptions.

 

[Jarv]

Synjyn Days- Long shot for the 53, but is the type of runner ( power) we lack. Is also considered a strong fit in a zone blocking system. If he showes up in pass pro and as a receiver he could be a real darkhorse to make the roster.
They can keep him on the PS. Could he become a FB or H-back? His position in the triple option had some similarities to a FB. I would prefer a multi-dimensional type FB that is threat as a runner and receiver over a guy like Clutts.

I was thinking the same thing about Days, always wanted that Mike Alstott type of FB, that could also take snaps at HB. Not sure about his blocking skills though? Did he ever do that in college?

If he could, I would dump Dunbar, Dmac is a better 3rd down back anyhow and dump all other FB and go with Randle, Dmac and Williams as the RBs, Days the FB.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I'm excited to see McFadden behind this line because he is the most physically talented of the guys we have.

I'm excited to see Williams behind this line because he has shown himself to have the most burst to and then through the hole of the guys we have.

I'm excited to see Randle behind this line because he's the only runner we have seen have success in this scheme before of the guys we have.

I am not excited for Dunbar.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Go look at the stats in a limited role of Choice and tell me Randle can project to a starter.

What does Choice have to do with Randle? Other than the fact both were back up RB's.

 

[Broges74]

What does Choice have to do with Randle? Other than the fact both were back up RB's.

Meaning using stats for a such a limited number of carries is a bad way to predict success over a greater number of carries.

 

[xwalker]

8 tds in 3 years with the Cowboys. 5.1 and 5.5 YPC for the Cowboys the first 2 seasons in more carries.

Come'on man.

My point is that you can skew stats to look good or bad, especially when the sample size is small.

An RB with less than 100 carries in a season can't really be judged on YPC.

People want to use YPC in a comparison of McFadden to his backup in Oakland, but then those same people don't like it when it is pointed out that Randle had a better YPC than McFadden's backup with both Randle and Latavious Murray have less than 100 carries.

 

[Broges74]

My point is that you can skew stats to look good or bad, especially when the sample size is small.

An RB with less than 100 carries in a season can't really be judged on YPC.

People want to use YPC in a comparison of McFadden to his backup in Oakland, but then those same people don't like it when it is pointed out that Randle had a better YPC than McFadden's backup with both Randle and Latavious Murray have less than 100 carries.

Then we are saying the same thing. Randle is an unknown when projecting out to a larger role. McFadden has a track record of a larger number of carries. To rely on him to put up vastly different numbers here than in Oakland is a recipe for disappointment. I expect some increase due to the better oline and he may be significantly better in a limited role but a larger number of carries might not be the best plan in a season where we are looking to get to a SB.

 

[xwalker]

Then we are saying the same thing. Randle is an unknown when projecting out to a larger role. McFadden has a track record of a larger number of carries. To rely on him to put up vastly different numbers here than in Oakland is a recipe for disappointment. I expect some increase due to the better oline and he may be significantly better in a limited role but a larger number of carries might not be the best plan in a season where we are looking to get to a SB.

Murray had 392 carries last year. They should just give the top 2 RB this season around 200 each, maybe less if the 3rd RB is producing also.

 

[Beast_from_East]

What does Choice have to do with Randle? Other than the fact both were back up RB's.

I think the point he is making is that a RB can look really good when he has limited carries but when he becomes the lead dog, the stats usually go way down.....................a better example would probably be Troy Hambrick.

Hambrick was a backup RB that had pretty good numbers in that role...............

2000...............he had only 6 attempts.............4.7 average
2001...............he had 113 attempts.................5.1 average

He was made the starter in 2003........................had 275 carries that season......................his average dropped to 3.5 (the lowest of his career)

Interestingly, he signed with Arizona the following year and they made him a backup again.................he had 63 carries....................guess what? His average rocketed back up to 4.5


The whole point of this example is to show that you cannot take a limited sample size that a backup RB has and project the numbers to him being the starter, it just doesn't work like that. Some guys (like Hambrick) were extremely good backup RBs but when made the starter their numbers fell like a rock. It is interesting to note that the only season of Hambrick's entire career where he did not average over 4 yards per carry was the season we made him the starter.


That brings us to Randle...............he has had 50 carries in 2013...................54 carries in 2014.....................he has a very good average with limited carries (just like Hambrick), but how will Randle's numbers look after 250 carries? (Hambrick had the worst average of his entire career when given that many carries), will Randle do the same?

That is the big unknown......................we knew that Murray could produce with a large number of carries (that's why we offered him $6 million a season)....................nobody knows if Randle can handle a large number of carries.