Mock draft 4.0: Ryan remains wild card in first round
By Pat Kirwan |
NFL.com
Senior Analyst
As the draft aproaches, there are more changes in the first round of my latest mock draft. We witnessed a few players admitting to failed drug tests, another player having heart surgery, a GM trying to get a pre-draft deal done, and the last of the pro days reshaping the first day of the draft.
The wild card in the first round is still Boston College QB Matt Ryan, who could land at any number of spots in the opening round. Lots of people have varying opinions of Ryan, and club executives in search of a quarterback can't waste much time comparing him to quarterbacks of years past. They need to ask themselves the question, if we pass on Ryan is there any guarantee we will get a player of equal or better talent next year? If he upgrades your team this year it will be very hard to pass him.
I get the sense that a few of the decision makers on draft day are struggling with medical and/or off-the-field issues, and for good reason. There's just too much money involved to take the risk anymore. A safe pick is going to trump a guy with great talent who may also present a risk. One-year wonders are another concern that seems to be on personnel directors' minds with little time left before the draft. Taking a guy who had one great year, or a guy with four solid years, is still a challenge in the NFL.
1. Miami Dolphins
Jake Long OT, MichiganLong is a safe pick and he addresses a need for Miami, whos new head coach, Tony Sparano, is a former offensive line coach. Whether Long can play on the left side or not, he will establish a point of attack for the run game. People who have worked with Long believe he can play on the left side. Whether he will do a pre-draft deal remains to be seen. If Long says no to the pre-draft deal he will be drafted by the Rams and the agent may believe there is more money at the No. 2 spot.
Second-round pick: Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
2. St. Louis Rams
Chris Long DE, VirginiaThe Rams know Leonard Little only feels comfortable on the left side even though he is undersized. Chris Long plays hard and that is a big concern to the Rams front office when they compare his effort to the other defensive end prospects. Another safe pick at the top of the first round and a guy who could move over to the left side when Little retires.
Second-round pick: James Hardy, WR, Indiana
3. Atlanta Falcons
Glenn Dorsey DT, LSUThe Falcons will solve their QB situation in the second round and take the "three technique" defensive tackle here. Lots of public sentiment not to take Matt Ryan in Atlanta and it may be heard by the ownership. Dorsey will make the others around him be more productive and that's just what the doctor ordered for Jamaal Anderson.
Second-round picks: Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware; Sam Baker, OT, USC; Justin King, CB, Penn State
4. Oakland Raiders
Vernon Gholston DE, Ohio StateThe Raiders may take Darren McFadden but Gholston has rare athletic ability. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan likes to play hybrid 4-3/3-4 defenses and Gholston is a key to that package.
Second-round pick: No selection
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Sedrick Ellis DT, USCThe Chiefs will think long and hard about Matt Ryan and offensive tackles Ryan Clady and Brandon Albert. Herm Edwards knows his defensive scheme needs a great three-technique tackle and Ellis' workout last week makes him a perfect fit. Alphonso Boone and Ron Edwards aren't in Ellis' class.
Second-round pick: Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
6. New York Jets
Darren McFadden RB, ArkansasThe Jets will have to move up for Vernon Gholston, but they can sit right here and get a game-breaking running back in McFadden. They may struggle with his off-the-field issues, but he's the best player on the board and can team up with Thomas Jones just like Adrian Peterson teamed up with Chester Taylor.
Second-round pick: Fred Davis, TE, USC
7. New England Patriots
Branden Albert G, VirginiaThe Patriots could select CB Leodis McKelvin here, but their history says take the big man when you can in the first round of the draft. Albert is a young talent with the skills to play left tackle for a long time. The Super Bowl demonstrated a pass rush may be the only way to stop Tom Brady.
Second-round pick: Cliff Avril, LB, Purdue
8. Baltimore Ravens
Matt Ryan QB, Boston CollegeThe Ravens need a left tackle and a corner but by time they go in the second round the quarterback population will have dried up. Ryan isn't perfect but he's a winner and the new head coach can build his team around him.
Second-round pick: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
9. Cincinnati Bengals
Leodis McKelvin CB, TroyThe Bengals need to move up for Sedrick Ellis and the Chiefs may be willing to move down and take an offensive tackle at this spot. If Cincinnati stays here, a solid corner would really help the defense, but so would linebacker Keith Rivers.
Second-round pick: Jamaal Charles, RB, Texas
10. New Orleans Saints
Keith Rivers LB, USCThe Saints cancelled their visit with Sedrick Ellis. Is that a smoke screen about their interest, or do they feel he will be gone when their turn comes? Rivers is a very solid prospect for the front seven and his pro day locked him in as a top 10 pick.
Second-round pick: Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
11. Buffalo Bills
Dominique Rogers-Cromartie CB, Tennessee StateThe word around the league is the receiver class is falling in the first round. The Bills may ignore that and take a receiver because it is such a great need. They also could use a corner, and Rogers-Cromartie has emerged as the second one on most boards.
Second-round pick: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
12. Denver Broncos
Ryan Clady OT, Boise StateThe Broncos need a left tackle, and Clady is still on the board because Albert pushed ahead of him and caused Clady to fall into the lap of Denver.
Second-round pick: Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
13. Carolina Panthers
Rashard Mendenhall RB, IllinoisThe Panthers have spent time with Mendenhall and he is an instant-impact player for a club that needs to win now. Mendenhall has little wear and tear on his body, can catch and break a long run which the Panthers need.
Second-round pick: Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
14. Chicago Bears
Jeff Otah OT, PittsburghThe Bears have issues on the offensive line and Otah can line up at right tackle from opening day. He will need tight end help in his pass protection early in his NFL career, but the future looks bright for this young tackle.
Second-round pick: Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
15. Detroit Lions
Derrick Harvey DE, FloridaAs Rod Marinelli always says, "feed the front when you can." Harvey brings pass rush to a front that needs help in that area.
Second-round pick: Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
16. Arizona Cardinals
Michael Jenkins CB, South FloridaThe Cardinals need a corner and Jenkins is the best one left after two have already been drafted. He's not a great tackler and the Cardinals may elect to take a different corner, or a physical offensive tackle like Gosder Cherilus.
Second-round pick: Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
17. Minnesota Vikings
Philip Merling DE, ClemsonThe Vikings need a defensive end in the worst way. They may take Calais Campbell here, but Merling has a higher grade on some of the boards. Who ever they take gets the luxury of a tremendous duo inside drawing the double teams. The sports hernia is not a big enough medical risk for the Vikings to pass because of past history with medical problems and defensive ends.
Second-round pick: Mike Pollack, C, Arizona State
18. Houston Texans
Chris Williams OT, VanderbiltThe Texans have called Chris Williams on all four of these mock drafts which tells me he will be gone by time they go at the end of the month. Williams has the skills to be a left tackle but does he have the motor?
Second-round pick: No selection
19. Philadelphia Eagles
Limas Sweed WR, TexasThe Eagles have the luxury of having the receiver class fall to them at the No. 19 spot. Devin Thomas is tops on most boards, but he's a one-year wonder who played in a junior college and two different high schools. Sweed has three times as many starts in college and is a big target.
Second-round pick: Terrell Thomas, CB, USC
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Antoine Cason CB, ArizonaThe Buccaneers are going to be very tempted to take a wide receiver such as James Hardy at this spot. But the talent pool at corner is running out so they take the safe pick.
Second-round pick: Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
21. Washington Commanders
Calais Campbell DE, MiamiCampbell's college coach is now on the Commander staff and he knows Campbell better than anyone. Washington needs a big left defensive end opposite Andre Carter. Campbell has rare size and speed with solid college production.
Second-round pick: Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
22. Dallas Cowboys (From Cleveland)
Devin Thomas WR, Michigan StateDallas is another team that is very happy the receivers fell in the first round. Thomas looks like a steal here and with his explosiveness he should contribute early. The Cowboys will come back in a few picks for a running back which leaves them searching for a corner in the second round even if they secure Pacman Jones.
Second-round pick: DaJuan Morgan, S, N.C. State
23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Gosder Cherilus OT, Boston CollegeCherilus plays the game the way the Steelers like to play football. He isn't perfect but he plays physical and to the whistle. He wins the right tackle spot in camp and never looks back for the next 10 years.
Second-round pick: Jason Jones, DE, Eastern Michigan
24. Tennessee Titans
Jerod Mayo LB, TennesseeJeff Fisher has always had a knack for finding aggressive defensive players and Mayo fits the bill. I watched three game tapes of him this week and he attacks. Mayo can play all three spots on the defense.
Second-round pick: Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
25. Seattle Seahawks
Kentwan Balmer DT, North CarolinaThe Seahawks have a need at defensive tackle and Balmer is still on the board. He looks like a better fit for a 3-4 scheme but the Seahawks like the size and strength.
Second-round pick: Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
Quentin Groves DE, AuburnGroves just had heart surgery but three teams told me they didn't drop his grade. An outside pass rusher with 25.5 sacks, 37 tackles for a loss in 22 starts compliments the rest of the front for the Jaguars. One personnel director didn't think Groves played hard all the time and another felt a 3-4 defense was a better fit. This pick could change next week.
Second-round pick: Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
27. San Diego Chargers
Jonathan Stewart RB, OregonThe worries about Michael Turner's departure and the wear and tear on LaDainian Tomlinson are over when the Chargers select Stewart if he's still on the board. I watched Stewart a lot last week on tape and he is a very physical back with some breakaway skills. He thinks of himself as another Jamal Lewis.
Second-round pick: No selection
28. Dallas Cowboys
Felix Jones RB, ArkansasThe Cowboys get the complimentary player for Marion Barber. Jones has little wear and tear on his body, and is a nice fit as a guy who will get 10-15 touches a game.
Second-round pick: DaJuan Morgan, S, N.C. State
29. San Francisco 49ers (From Indianapolis)
Dan Connor LB, Penn StateDan Connor is the perfect compliment to Patrick Willis at linebacker. Connor can call the defense and he is sound technically. He will turn lots of plays back to Willis and he is smart in coverage. He understands coverage's and will give Mike Nolan a chance to scheme the fronts better.
Second-round pick: Early Doucet, WR, LSU
30. Green Bay Packers
Brian Brohm QB, LouisvilleThe Packers depth is impressive and they can afford to take a quarterback early in this draft. They aren't looking to challenge Aaron Rodgers, but to replace Rodgers' role as the young developmental player.
Second-round pick: Charles Godrey, CB, Iowa
31. New York Giants
Kenny Phillips S, MiamiThe Giants see a few good players fall to them at the bottom of the draft and have already told me they are very happy to stay right where they are. Phillips is the best safety in the draft and the Giants need one. Their division is loaded with match up tight ends that expose poor cover safeties.
Second-round pick: Curtis Lofton, LB, Oklahoma
The Colts' first pick is late in the second round and they could do one of two things. If they see a player still on their board with a solid first-round grade as the second round starts, they could trade next year's first-round pick to get him. They did it last year with OT
Tony Ugoh and they got a first-round player for second-round money. For example, if they graded DT Trevor Laws from Notre Dame with his 224 tackles as a fit for them and his grade fit that philosophy, then why not go get him? The Colts' first-round pick in 2009 shouldn't be much better than that and they save a bunch of money.
