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Mock draft No. 5: Raiders go with Johnson
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
Note: Pat Kirwan will update his mock draft on Mondays between now and the April 28-29 draft.
(March 27, 2007) -- After spending a few days with the general managers, coaches and an owner or two at the NFL owners' meetings in Phoenix this week, I have a much different perspective about where the draft is headed.
Mock draft No. 5 reflects the trade between the Falcons and Texans that sent Matt Schaub to Houston, the Eagles-Bills trade involving Takeo Spikes, and all the information floating around Phoenix. Free-agent signings are slowing down a bit but there are still a few personnel moves affecting the draft.
The top of the draft seems to have changed the most in the past week as teams seem to be settling in on their plans. As one GM said, "There is the potential for more trades than ever on draft day."
Note: Changes from the fourth mock draft are marked with an asterisk. There are three hypothetical trades in this mock draft.
1. **Oakland: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech -- The Raiders have a lot of needs, but as long as quarterback is one of them, they have to respond by selecting the guy with the great deep ball, JaMarcus Russell. By passing on the opportunity to get Schaub in a trade, it looks like a quarterback is the pick -- but if the Raiders secure a QB like Josh McCown from the Lions, then here comes Calvin Johnson. Let's go with Johnson, the top-rated player on most draft boards!
2. **Cleveland (after trade with Detroit): JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU -- The Lions here could take Russell, Gaines Adams or move down, but it would not surprise me if it is a swap with Cleveland and the Browns take Russell.
3. **Detroit (after trade with Cleveland): Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson -- Now that they've traded down, the Lions could go in a lot of directions. I think they'll sit right here and take a quarterback later in the draft.
4. **Arizona (after trade with Tampa Bay): Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin -- There's no reason for the Bucs to move up if Calvin Johnson is gone at the top spot, so now they let the draft come to them. Joe Thomas would be a solid pick for teh Bucs even though they have Luke Petitgout, but they will seriously talk about Brady Quinn even though they have Jeff Garcia, Chris Simms, Bruce Gradkowski and maybe Jake Plummer. I say Tampa moves down one spot with the Cardinals and lets them take Thomas.
[FONT=arial,helvetica]NFL [/FONT]
5. **Tampa Bay (after trade with Arizona): Alan Branch, NT, Michigan -- Quinn is still out there, but I say the Bucs are thinking Branch. The massive Michigan nose tackle is a rare talent and the Tampa Bay defense needs an injection of youth.
6. **Washington: LaRon Landry, S, LSU -- There are a lot of rumors that the Commanders will trade out of this spot if they can get their hands on Chicago linebacker Lance Briggs. If they stay in the No. 6 spot, they could take Landry. If Chicago winds up in this spot, it could be for a defensive tackle like Amobi Okoye to pair up with Tommie Harris.
7. **Minnesota: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame -- The decision to stay put and not move up pays off for Brad Childress and his staff. Childress gets a solid quarterback who should be a 10-year starter.
8. Atlanta: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville -- The Falcons now are two spots higher at No. 8 and will take Landry if he's here. If not, it will be Okoye. Bobby Petrino is the new head coach and he coached the 19-year-old in college.
9. Miami: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State -- The Dolphins have not had a real solid left tackle since Richmond Webb. Brown will line up Week 1 in September and won't come off the field for 10 years.
10. Houston: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma -- Houston moved down two spots in the Schaub trade and probably lost the chance to take Levi Brown, so the Texans call Peterson's name. Even though they signed Ahman Green, Peterson is the highest-rated player on their board at this point.
11. San Francisco: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska -- Carriker is a great fit for coach Mike Nolan and his desire to build a solid 3-4 defense with high-character players. He plugs in as a rookie and holds his spot for eight to 10 years.
12. Buffalo: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi -- Willis is the best middle linebacker in the draft, and the Bills lost London Fletcher in free agency and traded Takeo Spikes to the Eagles. Willis recently ran under 4.4 in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day and is a tackling machine. Don't be surprised if Buffalo moves down a few spots and goes in a different direction. For example, Carolina could jump up two spots and take Willis while the Bills drop down for Penn State's Paul Posluszny.
13. St. Louis: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh -- There was a lot of debate on the Rams' pick this weekend by club executives studying this every day. Last week it was Leon Hall, but when Revis turned in a 4.39 40-yard dash with his size, the Rams switch.
14. Carolina: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State -- If the Panthers want Willis, they probably will have to get ahead of the Bills. But the guess here is they'll stay put and take Posluszny, who can line up at any of the three linebacker spots. The Panthers never recovered after losing Will Witherspoon, and Dan Morgan has medical questions.
15. Pittsburgh: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan -- The Steelers could easily take an outside linebacker here, but the corner might have a higher grade. Mike Tomlin plays Cover 2 and corners in zone defenses are not as big a priority as they are with man-coverage teams, but Hall is solid.
16. Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California -- The Packers needs a back and Lynch can catch the ball as well as run with it. I could see Green Bay in a serious discussion about tight end Greg Olsen at this spot.
17. Jacksonville: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida -- Deon Grant is gone, so a starting safety is needed. There will be discussions about other safeties like Michael Griffin, but Nelson's personal workout should make him the choice.
18. Cincinnati: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas -- The Bengals want a corner or a safety. Houston is a solid pick, but I wonder what kind of offense the team would have if Greg Olsen were selected here.
19. Tennessee: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC -- Drew Bennett is gone and offensive coordinator Norm Chow needs a few of his "own guys." Jarrett scores touchdowns and is a very big target in the red zone. Some people have Jarrett out of the first round, but here's a guy who scored a touchdown once every five receptions.
20. N.Y. Giants: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State -- The free-agent market for linebackers became lean when Cato June signed with the Bucs. The Giants then signed Kawika Mitchell, so the Giants could also go with LSU wide receiver Dwayne Bowe here.
21. Denver: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida -- The Broncos lost out in their pursuit of Patrick Kerney, so Moss makes some sense at this spot.
22. Dallas: Michael Griffin, S, Texas -- The Cowboys will look at the best corners, safeties and wide receivers at this spot. With three or four solid wide receivers and at least two defensive backs left with first-round grades, Jerry Jones will get a good player.
23. Kansas City: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State -- The Chiefs really want a great defensive tackle at this spot but the draft board says wait -- because the best are gone. If Ginn does fall to the Chiefs, it will be a big day for the Chiefs offense. He will push the field and create underneath lanes for tight end Tony Gonzalez. He also has eight touchdowns on kick returns, and Dante Hall isn't the player he once was.
24. New Orleans (after trade with New England): Greg Olsen, TE, Miami -- The Saints need a tight end and they must get ahead of the Jets to get Olsen. New Orleans gives up a fourth-round pick to move up.
25. N.Y. Jets: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas -- The Jets need help in the secondary and on the defensive line, and now that Olsen is gone, they discuss the remaining corners and take Ross.
26. Philadelphia: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State -- The Eagles set up their trade with the Bills by signing free agent Monte Reagor so they could trade Darwin Walker, so now they will turn to a cornerback or safety. They will discuss Jon Beason, Anthony Spencer and Brandon Merriweather before taking one of the biggest corners in the draft and one who can match up with the big NFC East receivers.
27. New England (after trade with New Orleans): Anthony Spencer, LB/DE, Purdue -- Even though the Patriots signed Adalius Thomas, Spencer makes plays and is a long-term answer opposite Thomas.
28. New England: Ryan Kalil, C, USC -- With two first-round picks and a very aggressive offseason in the free-agency market, the Patriots can afford to take the highest-rated center and not worry about the position for a very long time.
29. Baltimore: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan -- Joe had a big workout last week and has emerged as the third tackle in this draft. Ogden is thinking about retirement; Staley can play guard until that happens. The Ravens are going to have to find an OLB later on in this draft -- maybe a guy like Lamarr Woodley in the second round.
30. San Diego: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee -- The Chargers need an injection of young receivers and Meachem looked fast and smooth at the Combine. If he falls to San Diego, this would be a steal for the team. If he doesn't and Dwayne Bowe is available, he's another great choice.
31. Chicago: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU -- With Staley gone and Lance Briggs threatening to hold out, the Bears could go in a few directions. Bowe or one of the other wide receivers will fall to this spot. Bowe would be a wise choice here. If Washington acquires Briggs and winds up in this spot, then I could see the Commanders taking a defensive lineman here.
32. Indianapolis: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami -- It would not surprise me to see Colts general manger Bill Polian look at a defensive tackle, cornerback, safety or outside linebacker here, maybe a defensive tackle like Tank Tyler or a corner like Daymeion Hughes? But the best outside 'backer on the board wins out as the replacement for Cato June.
Mock draft No. 5: Raiders go with Johnson
NFL.com Senior Analyst
Note: Pat Kirwan will update his mock draft on Mondays between now and the April 28-29 draft.
(March 27, 2007) -- After spending a few days with the general managers, coaches and an owner or two at the NFL owners' meetings in Phoenix this week, I have a much different perspective about where the draft is headed.
Mock draft No. 5 reflects the trade between the Falcons and Texans that sent Matt Schaub to Houston, the Eagles-Bills trade involving Takeo Spikes, and all the information floating around Phoenix. Free-agent signings are slowing down a bit but there are still a few personnel moves affecting the draft.
The top of the draft seems to have changed the most in the past week as teams seem to be settling in on their plans. As one GM said, "There is the potential for more trades than ever on draft day."
Note: Changes from the fourth mock draft are marked with an asterisk. There are three hypothetical trades in this mock draft.
1. **Oakland: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech -- The Raiders have a lot of needs, but as long as quarterback is one of them, they have to respond by selecting the guy with the great deep ball, JaMarcus Russell. By passing on the opportunity to get Schaub in a trade, it looks like a quarterback is the pick -- but if the Raiders secure a QB like Josh McCown from the Lions, then here comes Calvin Johnson. Let's go with Johnson, the top-rated player on most draft boards!
2. **Cleveland (after trade with Detroit): JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU -- The Lions here could take Russell, Gaines Adams or move down, but it would not surprise me if it is a swap with Cleveland and the Browns take Russell.
3. **Detroit (after trade with Cleveland): Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson -- Now that they've traded down, the Lions could go in a lot of directions. I think they'll sit right here and take a quarterback later in the draft.
4. **Arizona (after trade with Tampa Bay): Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin -- There's no reason for the Bucs to move up if Calvin Johnson is gone at the top spot, so now they let the draft come to them. Joe Thomas would be a solid pick for teh Bucs even though they have Luke Petitgout, but they will seriously talk about Brady Quinn even though they have Jeff Garcia, Chris Simms, Bruce Gradkowski and maybe Jake Plummer. I say Tampa moves down one spot with the Cardinals and lets them take Thomas.
[FONT=arial,helvetica]NFL [/FONT]
5. **Tampa Bay (after trade with Arizona): Alan Branch, NT, Michigan -- Quinn is still out there, but I say the Bucs are thinking Branch. The massive Michigan nose tackle is a rare talent and the Tampa Bay defense needs an injection of youth.
6. **Washington: LaRon Landry, S, LSU -- There are a lot of rumors that the Commanders will trade out of this spot if they can get their hands on Chicago linebacker Lance Briggs. If they stay in the No. 6 spot, they could take Landry. If Chicago winds up in this spot, it could be for a defensive tackle like Amobi Okoye to pair up with Tommie Harris.
7. **Minnesota: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame -- The decision to stay put and not move up pays off for Brad Childress and his staff. Childress gets a solid quarterback who should be a 10-year starter.
8. Atlanta: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville -- The Falcons now are two spots higher at No. 8 and will take Landry if he's here. If not, it will be Okoye. Bobby Petrino is the new head coach and he coached the 19-year-old in college.
9. Miami: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State -- The Dolphins have not had a real solid left tackle since Richmond Webb. Brown will line up Week 1 in September and won't come off the field for 10 years.
10. Houston: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma -- Houston moved down two spots in the Schaub trade and probably lost the chance to take Levi Brown, so the Texans call Peterson's name. Even though they signed Ahman Green, Peterson is the highest-rated player on their board at this point.
11. San Francisco: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska -- Carriker is a great fit for coach Mike Nolan and his desire to build a solid 3-4 defense with high-character players. He plugs in as a rookie and holds his spot for eight to 10 years.
12. Buffalo: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi -- Willis is the best middle linebacker in the draft, and the Bills lost London Fletcher in free agency and traded Takeo Spikes to the Eagles. Willis recently ran under 4.4 in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day and is a tackling machine. Don't be surprised if Buffalo moves down a few spots and goes in a different direction. For example, Carolina could jump up two spots and take Willis while the Bills drop down for Penn State's Paul Posluszny.
13. St. Louis: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh -- There was a lot of debate on the Rams' pick this weekend by club executives studying this every day. Last week it was Leon Hall, but when Revis turned in a 4.39 40-yard dash with his size, the Rams switch.
14. Carolina: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State -- If the Panthers want Willis, they probably will have to get ahead of the Bills. But the guess here is they'll stay put and take Posluszny, who can line up at any of the three linebacker spots. The Panthers never recovered after losing Will Witherspoon, and Dan Morgan has medical questions.
15. Pittsburgh: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan -- The Steelers could easily take an outside linebacker here, but the corner might have a higher grade. Mike Tomlin plays Cover 2 and corners in zone defenses are not as big a priority as they are with man-coverage teams, but Hall is solid.
16. Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California -- The Packers needs a back and Lynch can catch the ball as well as run with it. I could see Green Bay in a serious discussion about tight end Greg Olsen at this spot.
17. Jacksonville: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida -- Deon Grant is gone, so a starting safety is needed. There will be discussions about other safeties like Michael Griffin, but Nelson's personal workout should make him the choice.
18. Cincinnati: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas -- The Bengals want a corner or a safety. Houston is a solid pick, but I wonder what kind of offense the team would have if Greg Olsen were selected here.
19. Tennessee: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC -- Drew Bennett is gone and offensive coordinator Norm Chow needs a few of his "own guys." Jarrett scores touchdowns and is a very big target in the red zone. Some people have Jarrett out of the first round, but here's a guy who scored a touchdown once every five receptions.
20. N.Y. Giants: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State -- The free-agent market for linebackers became lean when Cato June signed with the Bucs. The Giants then signed Kawika Mitchell, so the Giants could also go with LSU wide receiver Dwayne Bowe here.
21. Denver: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida -- The Broncos lost out in their pursuit of Patrick Kerney, so Moss makes some sense at this spot.
22. Dallas: Michael Griffin, S, Texas -- The Cowboys will look at the best corners, safeties and wide receivers at this spot. With three or four solid wide receivers and at least two defensive backs left with first-round grades, Jerry Jones will get a good player.
23. Kansas City: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State -- The Chiefs really want a great defensive tackle at this spot but the draft board says wait -- because the best are gone. If Ginn does fall to the Chiefs, it will be a big day for the Chiefs offense. He will push the field and create underneath lanes for tight end Tony Gonzalez. He also has eight touchdowns on kick returns, and Dante Hall isn't the player he once was.
24. New Orleans (after trade with New England): Greg Olsen, TE, Miami -- The Saints need a tight end and they must get ahead of the Jets to get Olsen. New Orleans gives up a fourth-round pick to move up.
25. N.Y. Jets: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas -- The Jets need help in the secondary and on the defensive line, and now that Olsen is gone, they discuss the remaining corners and take Ross.
26. Philadelphia: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State -- The Eagles set up their trade with the Bills by signing free agent Monte Reagor so they could trade Darwin Walker, so now they will turn to a cornerback or safety. They will discuss Jon Beason, Anthony Spencer and Brandon Merriweather before taking one of the biggest corners in the draft and one who can match up with the big NFC East receivers.
27. New England (after trade with New Orleans): Anthony Spencer, LB/DE, Purdue -- Even though the Patriots signed Adalius Thomas, Spencer makes plays and is a long-term answer opposite Thomas.
28. New England: Ryan Kalil, C, USC -- With two first-round picks and a very aggressive offseason in the free-agency market, the Patriots can afford to take the highest-rated center and not worry about the position for a very long time.
29. Baltimore: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan -- Joe had a big workout last week and has emerged as the third tackle in this draft. Ogden is thinking about retirement; Staley can play guard until that happens. The Ravens are going to have to find an OLB later on in this draft -- maybe a guy like Lamarr Woodley in the second round.
30. San Diego: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee -- The Chargers need an injection of young receivers and Meachem looked fast and smooth at the Combine. If he falls to San Diego, this would be a steal for the team. If he doesn't and Dwayne Bowe is available, he's another great choice.
31. Chicago: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU -- With Staley gone and Lance Briggs threatening to hold out, the Bears could go in a few directions. Bowe or one of the other wide receivers will fall to this spot. Bowe would be a wise choice here. If Washington acquires Briggs and winds up in this spot, then I could see the Commanders taking a defensive lineman here.
32. Indianapolis: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami -- It would not surprise me to see Colts general manger Bill Polian look at a defensive tackle, cornerback, safety or outside linebacker here, maybe a defensive tackle like Tank Tyler or a corner like Daymeion Hughes? But the best outside 'backer on the board wins out as the replacement for Cato June.
