new Kirwan Mock picks

[masomenos]

So you are saying Griffin will be the BPA if Bowe, Meachem, Jarret or even Spencer are all sitting there for us at 22?

So who you are?

If you are anything short of an NFL Scout or GM (which even they can be wrong) then it doesnt really matter.

You know how many writers or so-called "experts" out there are completely off when it comes to this time of year and rating players and predicting how well they will perform on the pro level? The original post of this thread is a perfect example.

You calling Watkins "expendable" on the lone fact he was a 5th round pick is pretty ridiculous yet most people would agree with you at 1st glance.

Then again, if you look at it closer you will realize that there are other facts to consider. There have been plenty of 1st round busts and plenty of 2nd day guys who have shined and gone on to do great things. I understand the number of players in these categories are lob sided but just because someone was picked on day 2 does not make them "expendable." Espicially with a sophomore kid like Watkins. There is this thing called developement. You cant expect to have a 1st day pick at every position who can start week 1 and give the team 10+ solid years. There will be players on every team who went overlooked, whether 2nd day picks or undrafted FAs.

lol, I am NOT an NFL GM or scout, which means I matter exactly as much (or as little) as you do.

I do know how many experts are wrong every years, that's why I don't count myself in their ranks. I'm just a fan. I have developed a grading system that has been quite reliable over the past 5 years though and I tend to favor my own prospective scores over others. Since the experts are wrong so often I like to think that people like you and me have AT LEAST as much credibility as them. No?

I'm not calling Watkins expendable because he's a 5th round pick, I'm calling him expendable because he's poor in coverage and I don't believe his ball locating ability will significantly improve from where it is now. I don't see him as a player who has very much potential in all honesty. If Watkins wasn't able to gain any ball locating skills during his career at FSU then I seriously doubt he's going to be improving, it's just something he can't do. Some linemen have naturally quick feet, some WRs have natural hands, some FSs have a natural ability to locate objects in the air once they turn their head from one point to the other. Watkins seems to be missing this and it's something that is critical.

Edit: Oh and yes Jarrett is slow out of his breaks and could have serious issues with separation, there's a good possibility that Meachem will be gone, Bowe wouldn't be a bad choice at all, and Spencer is not worth the 22nd pick at all, for one he shows poor off the line speed.

 

[Tristan]

First this Jack *** starts by saying that the Raiders must address their dreadful QB situation, then he points out that a guy with a rocket arm who throws a great deep ball (which Al Davis must have) is there for the picking. Then he states that Josh Mcown negates their need for a QB?, you gotta be kidding me!

After the Raiders passed on Phillip Rivers, Ben Rothlisberger, Jay Cutler & Matt leinart for the likes of Kerry Collins and Aaron Brooks and become the laughing stock of the NFL. So now they should pass on two more "franchise QB" prospects for Josh (worthless) Mcown?

And if we pass on Ginn at 22, I'll be livid, unless it is because we took Jarrett instead, but it would be a gift from God if either of those two are still there for the taking at our pick IMO.

 

[smarta5150]

lol, I am NOT an NFL GM or scout, which means I matter exactly as much (or as little) as you do.

I do know how many experts are wrong every years, that's why I don't count myself in their ranks. I'm just a fan. I have developed a grading system that has been quite reliable over the past 5 years though and I tend to favor my own prospective scores over others. Since the experts are wrong so often I like to think that people like you and me have AT LEAST as much credibility as them. No?

I'm not calling Watkins expendable because he's a 5th round pick, I'm calling him expendable because he's poor in coverage and I don't believe his ball locating ability will significantly improve from where it is now. I don't see him as a player who has very much potential in all honesty. If Watkins wasn't able to gain any ball locating skills during his career at FSU then I seriously doubt he's going to be improving, it's just something he can't do. Some linemen have naturally quick feet, some WRs have natural hands, some FSs have a natural ability to locate objects in the air once they turn their head from one point to the other. Watkins seems to be missing this and it's something that is critical.

I am only a fan and I dont count myself as "credible."

The only reason I asked who you were was you sounded as if you had some self-proclaimed credibility with the whole "you dont know who I am for A and B reasons."

Even I took it the wrong way, which I dont think I did, then my bad.

Your systems intrigues me though and wouldnt mind seeing it... I am curious how you rated the past 5 draft classes of secondary players and how well they have actually performed.

If you didnt ***** the numbers and were fairly accurate then you are obviously in the wrong place for there are may organizations that would pay well for an intelligent scout.

As for Watkins once again, I love how quickly one is too judge the kid after his very imited playing time. Your opinion on his ball-seeking ability only has 1 play that I can recall which supports your statement... which RW could have erased if not picked by bad positioning of the ref in centerfield. Maybe the flea flicker play against Philly but I honestly dont remember that clearly.

 

[masomenos]

I am only a fan and I dont count myself as "credible."

The only reason I asked who you were was you sounded as if you had some self-proclaimed credibility with the whole "you dont know who I am for A and B reasons."

Even I took it the wrong way, which I dont think I did, then my bad.

Your systems intrigues me though and wouldnt mind seeing it... I am curious how you rated the past 5 draft classes of secondary players and how well they have actually performed.

If you didnt ***** the numbers and were fairly accurate then you are obviously in the wrong place for there are may organizations that would pay well for an intelligent scout.

As for Watkins once again, I love how quickly one is too judge the kid after his very imited playing time. Your opinion on his ball-seeking ability only has 1 play that I can recall which supports your statement... which RW could have erased if not picked by bad positioning of the ref in centerfield. Maybe the flea flicker play against Philly but I honestly dont remember that clearly.

We seem to have a sort of a misunderstanding, I didn't mean "you don't know who I am" in the sense that I indeed was somebody, I just meant I have about 30 posts on the forums so you, indeed, don't know who I am at all. I'm just some new guy. So, I apologize for coming across the wrong way and if you did misunderstand me then it was my fault.

I've been working on my system over the past year though and I only have reliable ratings systems for safeties and WRs right now and I've only been able to take previous combine information and plug it into my system. However I can honestly say that with the formula I could have told you that Skyler Green was a wasted pick with a 53 and that Marques Colston was going to be a steal in the 7th with a grade of 82. However both systems have worked out with every past player I've been able to find information on. They aren't perfectly refined yet, but I've been working on them for a while and they seem to work fairly reliably.

The ball locating issue isn't the only problem I have with Watkins and I honestly can't cite specific plays from last year to identify that problem, but he is also pretty stiff in his hips and he had a poor 20 yard time if I recall correctly. At this point I just believe that he's a player who isn't going to improve that much, he reminds me a lot of Marvin White this year.

Like I said, I'm still working on my grading system but I, obviously, hope to have it done by the draft and I'll be more than willing to shed some light on the system I use at that point. Also, I again apologize, I didn't meant to come across sounding arrogant by saying "you don't know who I am" I just meant I'm new here and have no credibility at all, why should you believe me.

 

[smarta5150]

Some advice, try not to change your stories around.

Not good for cred

Oh well...

I do know how many experts are wrong every years, that's why I don't count myself in their ranks. I'm just a fan. I have developed a grading system that has been quite reliable over the past 5 years though and I tend to favor my own prospective scores over others. Since the experts are wrong so often I like to think that people like you and me have AT LEAST as much credibility as them. No?

I've been working on my system over the past year though and I only have reliable ratings systems for safeties and WRs right now and I've only been able to take previous combine information and plug it into my system. However I can honestly say that with the formula I could have told you that Skyler Green was a wasted pick with a 53 and that Marques Colston was going to be a steal in the 7th with a grade of 82. However both systems have worked out with every past player I've been able to find information on. They aren't perfectly refined yet, but I've been working on them for a while and they seem to work fairly reliably.

 

[masomenos]

Some advice, try not to change your stories around.

Not good for cred

Oh well...

Like I said, I've used college stats and combine results for past players to project what their rating would have been, 5 years is about as far back as I've been able to go.

Sorry if that was too abstract for you. ::edit:: and I don't mean that in a sarcastic way, I just mean I'm sorry if it wasn't clear

 

[cowboyz]

Like I said, I've used college stats and combine results for past players to project what their rating would have been, 5 years is about as far back as I've been able to go.

Sorry if that was too abstract for you. ::edit:: and I don't mean that in a sarcastic way, I just mean I'm sorry if it wasn't clear

please give your ranking for the cbs and wrs in this draft so we can see how it works out

 

[masomenos]

Sure thing. I think I said I had safety ratings earlier, not CB, but if I said CB then I meant safety. The CB rankings just started today. I'll post both safety and WR rankings, along with ratings, on Friday as that should be enough time for me to put the final tweaks in. Some things that won't change very much is that I'll go on record as saying that Dwayne Jarrett is grossly overrated, Steve Smith is underrated, Sidney Rice will never be explosive enough to get great seperation in the NFL (although he could be a good redzone WR), Johnnie Lee Higgins is one of the better prospects, and Dallas Baker could be a huge steal if he goes where people are projecting. Laron Landry is a tad overrated and shouldn't be a top 10 pick, Michael Griffin is the best safety prospect in the draft, and Brandon Meriweather could have a lot of trouble in coverage in the NFL.

Full results, and even explanations if you want, on Friday.

 

[Avery]

The flip-flopped picks in the top five make no sense. Why would Cleveland trade up for Russell? Why would Arizona trade up to nab Thomas with Tampa Bay?

Kirwan sucks.

 

[TDH]

Sure thing. I think I said I had safety ratings earlier, not CB, but if I said CB then I meant safety. The CB rankings just started today. I'll post both safety and WR rankings, along with ratings, on Friday as that should be enough time for me to put the final tweaks in. Some things that won't change very much is that I'll go on record as saying that Dwayne Jarrett is grossly overrated, Steve Smith is underrated, Sidney Rice will never be explosive enough to get great seperation in the NFL (although he could be a good redzone WR), Johnnie Lee Higgins is one of the better prospects, and Dallas Baker could be a huge steal if he goes where people are projecting. Laron Landry is a tad overrated and shouldn't be a top 10 pick, Michael Griffin is the best safety prospect in the draft, and Brandon Meriweather could have a lot of trouble in coverage in the NFL.

Full results, and even explanations if you want, on Friday.

I couldnt agree with the things you have said about watkins, and if the BPA is a safety at 22, then i agree...we take him. But i disagree respectfully with your opinion. I think (and most "experts" [realize they are often wrong] agree) that merriweather is a far better coverage prospect than griffin. Merriweather could actually play man CB, i dont think griffin could come close to that.

And to Smarta5150's comment "Its a joke that people thought it was a good idea to replace 1 unproven FS with another BEFORE we signed Hamlin and now its an even bigger joke that some people STILL wanna draft a FS @ 22."

- I would say that its ridiculous to say its a joke to replace 1 unproven FS w/ another. REALLY!!! Its a joke to replace 1 unproven 5th Rd FS (who had quite a few games to make a statement if he had wanted to) with a 1st Rd draft pick. That might be the worst logic i have ever seen on this site. ANY DRAFT PICK IS UNPROVEN!!! Why would we want to replace Sam Hurd with Calvin Johnson. I hope Smarta that you can see that it is your logic that is a JOKE!

I'll grant you that after we signed Hamlin (although he still cant cover) FS is less of a need, but if the BPA is available is a FS...then we take him. I would only consider a FS to be the BPA at 22 if it was Nelson.

 

[TDH]

meant to say "couldnt agree more" (about watkins)

And as to Kirwin - he hasnt changed our prediction to reflect the hamlin signing

 

[smarta5150]

I couldnt agree with the things you have said about watkins, and if the BPA is a safety at 22, then i agree...we take him. But i disagree respectfully with your opinion. I think (and most "experts" [realize they are often wrong] agree) that merriweather is a far better coverage prospect than griffin. Merriweather could actually play man CB, i dont think griffin could come close to that.

And to Smarta5150's comment "Its a joke that people thought it was a good idea to replace 1 unproven FS with another BEFORE we signed Hamlin and now its an even bigger joke that some people STILL wanna draft a FS @ 22."

- I would say that its ridiculous to say its a joke to replace 1 unproven FS w/ another. REALLY!!! Its a joke to replace 1 unproven 5th Rd FS (who had quite a few games to make a statement if he had wanted to) with a 1st Rd draft pick. That might be the worst logic i have ever seen on this site. ANY DRAFT PICK IS UNPROVEN!!! Why would we want to replace Sam Hurd with Calvin Johnson. I hope Smarta that you can see that it is your logic that is a JOKE!

I'll grant you that after we signed Hamlin (although he still cant cover) FS is less of a need, but if the BPA is available is a FS...then we take him. I would only consider a FS to be the BPA at 22 if it was Nelson.

You realize you just compared Calvin Johnsons ability to that of a FS that may just be available at 22... right.

If they were on the same page then Nelson, Merri, Griffin, etc. would all be considered top 10.

Its not like I said lets pass up Landry if he is there at 22.

We are are talking about late 1st round talent safeties, not 1 of, if not the best WR prospect ever to come out of college football.

 

[Achozen]

Please draft an offensive player!

 

[jswalker1981]

I'd be pissed if we passed on Ginn for Griffin. We have Watkins, just signed Hamlin, and Kirwan thinks that another safety is the way to go? Just imagine if Ginn could be our Devin Hester!

 

[dfense]

The Raiders opting out of a QB? For a position they're relatively deep at? Commanders taking a safety? My mock will be more accurate.

 

[Wolfpack]

Why would Cleveland and Detroit swap ??

I stopped right there....

 

[aikemirv]

I like Kirwan. I have found his past articles to be informative and knowledgeable.

I don't agree with the idea that Oakland would not take a QB, or that they might find Josh Mccown to be the answer but when was the last time the Raiders drafted a QB high and we know Davis seems to be fascinated with the WR's who can stretch the field - he has always been.

Cleveland and Detroit could easily swap picks if Detroit either took Jamarcus Russell (cause they need a long term QB) or made it seem like they wanted to and Cleveland came calling because they definately need him. That kind of trade happens because you want to make sure you get your guy and you are afraid that a team or 2 behind you is on the phones working a deal with Detroit too.


Watkins, during practice was exceptional as a ball hawk from what we heard from BP so the idea that his ball skills are not very good does not translate. He just seemed a little lost in actual game play which may be a huge problem or may be a comfort level issue that he will develope in time.

Meachum is the pick for me if he is there at 22. His size, speed, production combination does not come along very often and is worth the risk IMO.

 

[masomenos]

I couldnt agree with the things you have said about watkins, and if the BPA is a safety at 22, then i agree...we take him. But i disagree respectfully with your opinion. I think (and most "experts" [realize they are often wrong] agree) that merriweather is a far better coverage prospect than griffin. Merriweather could actually play man CB, i dont think griffin could come close to that.

Let me try to explain my reasoning. I do have Meriweather rated fairly highly in my rankings right now and I do think that his has a lot of potential. However, I also see that when it comes to range he may not be as effective as he was in college, that's where I think his cover issues come in. I say this because of his very poor times in the 3 cone drill, his awful 10 yard split, and his average 20 and 40 yard times. I realize that instincts will make up for some of these short comings but I think he is a player who just might not be as physically gifted as he looked in college. I know reports will go against this, but to me there is serious concern about his hip fluidity and coupled with a bad "to sideline time" as shown in his 10 and 20 yard splits, there's just a serious red flag for me there. I think it would be different if he had been super productive in college, but he really never was.

As far as Griffin, as I sad earlier he kind of got a bad rap this year because Texas' secondary was ranked so lowly but I really think it was more of him being asked to play closer to the LOS which took him out of range to support in coverage which in turn hurt the CBs. Griffin's raw coverage measurables are really second only to Leon Hall as he's shown very fluid hips and a great 20 yard burst, as well as very good leaping ability.

I understand that a lot of the opinions I have are going to go against the experts, so I don't expect people to agree with me on everything when it comes to player rankings, but that's what I've seen.