NFCE Predictions and why Dallas may win the East

[StarOfGlory]

While my heart says we probably don't win the East, my nerdy head is saying something different. Let me explain.

Up here in Eagleland, sitting with my Eagle-loving neighbor, he asked me to run a few stats for him since I'm a math geek. We looked at all the teams since the start of the 16 game schedule (1978) that improved their win total by five or more games in one season. The Eagles went from 4-12 to 10-6 last year, so they fit this criteria. We then looked at the same team's record the following year.

What I found was interesting. Teams that make an improvement of five or more wins in a season tend to lose, on average, 2.5 of those wins the following season. Yeah, I know you can't have "half a win", but this is an average, so all you ********** who want to say "Hey moron, you can't have half a win" can stuff it. There were also a few teams that bucked that trend, notably the Eagles under Andy Reid. Diving into the numbers more, I found that the two largest variables that cause this are strength of schedule and injuries.

The Eagles' schedule is tougher this year for sure. Also, other than Maclin early in the year, they were an unusually healthy team by NFL standards last year. Maybe Chip Kelly's sport science really is that good and keeps players fit and healthy, but I couldn't find a team in the last 20 years that was that lucky from year to year. Statistics show that that is unlikely to happen again--not impossible, but unlikely.

If NFL trends and stats hold true, teams like the Eagles and Chiefs will drop off this year. With that said....

Dallas: 8-8 (win tiebreaker)
Eagles: 8-8
Commanders: 7-9
GIants: 7-9

The NFCE will stink it up. I hope the Eagles don't buck the trend and break out winning like the Eagles did under Reid in his early years.

 

[Gridiron Man]

While my heart says we probably don't win the East,

In most cases I would say go with your head and not your heart, but in this case, I'd say go with your heart.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Eagles - 10-6
Commanders - 9-7
Giants - 7-9
Dallas 5-11

 

[jazzcat22]

In most cases I would say go with your head and not your heart, but in this case, I'd say go with your heart.

Any Cowboys fan's heart should say we win.
If your head says we won't, then it may need examined.

 

[cml750]

Eagles - 10-6
Commanders - 9-7
Giants - 7-9
Dallas 5-11

That would not surprise me at all.

 

[noshame]

That would not surprise me at all.

Sadly, I don't think it'll surprise the cowboys either.

 

[Risen Star]

In most cases I would say go with your head and not your heart, but in this case, I'd say go with your heart.

Yeah, I think he said that backwards.

He's looking for reasons why they'll win, but he knows it's not happening. This is a very bad football team.

 

[Gridiron Man]

Every season I have hope we can win the East. Some seasons more hope than others. As for this season, I'd say our defense is hopeless.

 

[Richmond Cowboy]

Yeah, I think he said that backwards.

He's looking for reasons why they'll win, but he knows it's not happening. This is a very bad football team.

I wouldn't say this is a very bad football team. I would say it's a great offensive team and a very poor defensive team that plays very good special teams. It will all come down to matchups. We will be in the mix for the division given that all the other teams in the NFCE have question marks as well.

 

[Zordon]

Eagles - 10-6
Commanders - 9-7
Giants - 7-9
Dallas 5-11

This is pretty much where I stand as well. This is going to be a miserable season.

 

[CrownCowboy]

Although I am not at all impressed with any other team in the NFC East, the Cowboys will struggle to get 6 wins this year.

I don't think I've ever seen a defense with less talent fielded by this team. At first, Jerry and the Cowboy's brass took the approach that they were so bad on that side of the ball last year that it couldn't get any worse. Oh yes it can and now you can start to see that they are coming to terms with what is about to happen.

It's still ridiculous how everybody still thinks that the Eagle's will compete for an NFC title. Give me a break with that mess.

 

[Cowboys606]

If Romo is healthy no way in hell cowboys go 5-11.

 

[LOBO7]

I think we are better than we were last year. we have players that will be healing and coming off suspension over the next few weeks. A new OC that is a step up from last year. Of course we have a chance to win the East. We are getting younger.

 

[The Quest for Six]

Eagles - 10-6
Commanders - 9-7
Giants - 7-9
Dallas 5-11

That looks about right to me...

 

[xwalker]

While my heart says we probably don't win the East, my nerdy head is saying something different. Let me explain.

Up here in Eagleland, sitting with my Eagle-loving neighbor, he asked me to run a few stats for him since I'm a math geek. We looked at all the teams since the start of the 16 game schedule (1978) that improved their win total by five or more games in one season. The Eagles went from 4-12 to 10-6 last year, so they fit this criteria. We then looked at the same team's record the following year.

What I found was interesting. Teams that make an improvement of five or more wins in a season tend to lose, on average, 2.5 of those wins the following season. Yeah, I know you can't have "half a win", but this is an average, so all you ********** who want to say "Hey moron, you can't have half a win" can stuff it. There were also a few teams that bucked that trend, notably the Eagles under Andy Reid. Diving into the numbers more, I found that the two largest variables that cause this are strength of schedule and injuries.

The Eagles' schedule is tougher this year for sure. Also, other than Maclin early in the year, they were an unusually healthy team by NFL standards last year. Maybe Chip Kelly's sport science really is that good and keeps players fit and healthy, but I couldn't find a team in the last 20 years that was that lucky from year to year. Statistics show that that is unlikely to happen again--not impossible, but unlikely.

If NFL trends and stats hold true, teams like the Eagles and Chiefs will drop off this year. With that said....

Dallas: 8-8 (win tiebreaker)
Eagles: 8-8
Commanders: 7-9
GIants: 7-9

The NFCE will stink it up. I hope the Eagles don't buck the trend and break out winning like the Eagles did under Reid in his early years.

I see that you're relatively new to the board. Welcome.

We could use more analytical type posts around here, so keep it up.

 

[Coy]

Yeah, I think he said that backwards.

He's looking for reasons why they'll win, but he knows it's not happening. This is a very bad football team.

I agree, but I keep thinking, how different are we than last year? And we still went 5-1 in the division and played for the NFC east title in week 17. The Defense can't be worse (I think) and the Offense should be good.
The Division still stinks although maybe i'm wrong about the Eagles.

 

[Bowdown27]

It's gonna be cowboys and Commanders making the playoffs. I honestly feel both will do well. Cue the THIS GUY IS OFF HIS MEDS from the board

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

I honestly think that 7-9 could still when this pathetic division. Unfortunately, I think the Cowboys are going to have to have alot of things go their way in order to get to 7-9.

 

[Risen Star]

I agree, but I keep thinking, how different are we than last year? And we still went 5-1 in the division and played for the NFC east title in week 17. The Defense can't be worse (I think) and the Offense should be good.
The Division still stinks although maybe i'm wrong about the Eagles.

That's a good point but I think we are clearly less talented on defense than last year. Nobody will ever convince me you can lose Ware, Hatcher and Lee and improve your talent base. IMO, the Cowboys will field an expansion team level defense in 2014.

Romo's a year older with back issues. We have no way of knowing whether that will be a factor this year. It's a roll of the dice.

But the real key why this team won't contend this year is the same as before. We have a coaching staff that lacks authority while overseeing a roster full of holes. You're never going to win that way. People get sick of hearing it, but I'll bang that drum consistently because it's the truth.

 

[Risen Star]

I honestly think that 7-9 could still when this pathetic division. Unfortunately, I think the Cowboys are going to have to have alot of things go their way in order to get to 7-9.

7-9 isn't winning this division. You'll have to get to 9 wins at the minimum.