NFL’s New Math: (10-1) x 2 = 1

[Gryphon]

NFL’s New Math: (10-1) x 2 = 1
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/xXxtasy/119975
Filed under: DallasCowboys GreenBayPackers IndianapolisColts NFL NewEnglandPatriots
Nov 22, 2007 11:12 PM | 121 views [report abuse]
Super Bowl XLI 3/4

Nov 29th, Super Bowl XLI 3/4, Green Bay vs. Dallas will be THE most important game of the 2007 NFL regular season. Yes, even more important than the New England/Indianapolis game in Week 9! This game will most certainly live up to all of the pre-game hype that it will get in the next 7 days. I’ve been predicting this 10-1 vs. 10-1 match-up since Week 4. This game will have so many underlying storylines and future implications no matter who wins it.

The game will, without a doubt, determine which one of these two NFC juggernauts eventually gets the #1 seed in the NFC and gains home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs. If Green Bay comes out on top, a game in January at Lambeau Field (a rematch of the “Ice Bowl” - check out my Blog "Ice Bowl II" Cometh - 40th Year Anniversary Game) would make it that much more difficult for Dallas to get a rematch against New England. Likewise, if Dallas comes out the winner, a rematch in Dallas at Texas Stadium in the playoffs would be much more difficult to win and may keep Green Bay from a Super Bowl XXXI rematch vs. New England.

I would almost consider these two teams as mirror images of each other in every aspect on offense and defense. Dallas does have a better running game but Green Bay’s keeps improving every week. Injuries to some of Green Bay’s key players in the last couple of weeks could become a factor if they don’t play.

Pre-game Analysis:
QB - Virtually Even but slight advantage to GB with Favre’s years of experience
RB - Advantage DAL
WR - Advantage GB (yes, even if Crayton plays)
TE - Advantage DAL
Offensive Line - Advantage DAL
Defensive Line - Even
Linebackers - Slight Advantage GB
Secondary - Advantage GB but if Woodson is limited then Even
Pass Rushers - Virtually Even but if KGB is limited then advantage to DAL
Special Teams - Virtually Even
Depth - Even
Coaching - Even (Mike McCarthy needs to be Coach of the Year)

Prediction: GB 37 - DAL 34 (in OT)


Packers Keys For Success:

1. Contain Jason Witten. This should be the #1 priority for the Green Bay linebackers! All-Pro Witten will be the difference maker in this game against the Packers who are giving up the most fantasy points to TEs. Brady Poppinga and AJ Hawk must no let Witten out of their sites depending on the side he lines up on. Green Bay should also have one of their safeties (Atari Bigby or Aaron Rouse) be ready to provide support should Witten run down the seam.

2. Pass First, Run Second. This formula has been working all season for Green Bay so why should they stop now. Dallas does not have the personnel to effectively cover all of Green Bay’s receiving weapons when they go to their 4 and 5-receiver formations. If Brett Favre is allowed time to throw, he will pick apart the Dallas secondary, that is giving up the 7th most fantasy points to WRs, all day long.

3. DT pressure up the middle. Tony Romo has been given a lot of time to throw the ball all season. Ryan Pickett and Johnny Jolly (Chris Cole if Jolly is still out) must get pressure up the middle and force Romo and the Cowboys RBs to turn and run right into Green Bay’s defensive ends who should be able to get decent penetration all game.

Cowboys Keys For Success

1. Pressure Brett Favre. The reason Favre has been having such an outstanding season is that no team has really applied pressure on him all season. Favre will stay in the pocket and only step up to throw when teams effectively rush him. Dallas must get an effective, quick push from their front-3 to keep Favre from going through all of his read progressions and force him to throw before he and his receivers are ready.

2. Terrell Owens line separation and physical advantages. Al Harris will bump and bump and bump Owens on every play. Even though Harris is small, he is one of the most physical CBs in the NFL and is not afraid of covering Owens man-to-man. Owens is the strongest WR in the NFL and must use his strength, quickness and moves to get separation at the line from Harris. Owens must then use his precise route running skills and height advantage while at the same time shielding defenders from the pass with his big body to keep drives going for Dallas.

3. Effectively run the ball and game clock management. Dallas needs big games from both Marion Barber and Julius Jones in order to sustain long, time-consuming drives and keep Favre and his receivers off the field. Even though Green Bay has a very good run defense, Dallas should be able to run on them with sweeps around the corner if they get great down blocking from their tackles and excellent blocking from their pulling guards.

My Fantasy Stat Predictions:
Favre: 33-for-44, 411 yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
Romo: 29-for-41, 324 yds, 4 TDs, 1 INT, 1 Fum
Driver: 9 rec, 97 yds
Jennings: 7 rec, 153 yds, 2 TDs
Jones: 5 rec, 59 yds, 1 TD
Lee: 5 rec, 52 yds
Owens: 8 rec, 92 yds, 1 TD
Austin: 4 rec, 46 yds
Witten: 11 rec, 109 yds, 2 TDs
Grant: 124 ru/rec yds
Barber: 109 ru/rec yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum
Jones: 83 ru/rec yds
Crosby; 3 FGs (42, 37, 46), 4-4 extra pt
Folk; 2 FGs (33, 39), 4-4 extra pt
__________________
for more updates visit http://gryphononcowboys.blogspot.com/

 

[dogberry]

If Green Bay goes 5 wrs, will Koren Robinson and Ruvell Martin be uncoverable by Dallas? Hard to believe that those two will be the end of our Super Bowl dreams.

 

[tomson75]

I'll take our linebackers.

GB LB production: tackles sacks fumbles

N. Barnett 91 2 0
AJ Hawk 72 0 0
B. Poppinga 31 0 0

Avg. (div. by 3) 64 .66 0

DC LB production: tackles sacks fumbles

D. Ware 63 9 2
B. James 69 2 0
A. Ayodele 39 0 0
G. Ellis 19 8.5 2

Avg. (div. by 4) 47.5 4.87 1



.....even our top two back ups outproduce there top two.

T. White 8 0 0
D. Bishop 4 0 0


K. Burnett 40 0 1
A. Spencer 27 2 0


I would have thought that they would have had far more dominating tackle stats than that. Our LB's have more responsibility, and seem to be putting up stats like many 4-3 teams' LB's. Their LB's are fast, but they also suffer against teams with good offensive lines...like ours. AJ Hawk is going to need a deep tissue massage from his man-wife after this one.

 

[Gryphon]

If Green Bay goes 5 wrs, will Koren Robinson and Ruvell Martin be uncoverable by Dallas? Hard to believe that those two will be the end of our Super Bowl dreams.

Gb's 5 WR set spells run and shoot formation.
from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Run_&_Shoot

The Run & Shoot is a type of offense in American Football. It is predicated on using multiple wide receiver sets, and as many formation adjustments as are needed to adapt to the opposing defense's tactics.

The scheme was pioneered by coach Glenn "Tiger" Ellison in the late 1950s and popularized by Mouse Davis in the 1970s at Portland State University, in the early 1980s in the CFL and in the mid-1980s in the USFL. The offense has evolved over the years into the fast-paced passing game common to football today. While it enjoyed a brief resurgence with some National Football League teams in the 1980s and 1990s, today it is primarily employed at the high school and college levels.

Examples of successful Run & Shoot offenses include the Warren Moon-quarterbacked Houston Oilers (n.k.a., Tennessee Titans) of the 1990s (coached by Jerry Glanville and then Jack Pardee), the Toronto Argonauts of the early 1980's and the present-day offense of the University of Hawaii, coached by June Jones. Quarterbacks in a Run & Shoot system usually have comparatively high performance stats (e.g., around 50 pass attempts per game). Because of this, the numbers put up by Run & Shoot quarterbacks are often discredited as being a "by-product of the system", rather than the result of that QB's personal ability. Such criticism is especially prominent at the college level. Critics are often affirmed when QB's who succeeded with this set in college, flounder without it in the NFL, often saddling them with the derogatory descriptor "system quarterback". Prime examples are 1989 Heisman Trophy winner Andre Ware (University of Houston), fellow Houston alumnus David Klingler and former University of Hawaii QB Timmy Chang.

Despite regular-season successes, the Run & Shoot ultimately fell out of favor in the NFL; its marginal running game was strongly linked with its teams' early playoff exits. The legacy of the Run & Shoot lives on, though, in the offenses it has inspired: Jerry Glanville's no-huddle Redgun Offense, the pass-happy shotgun formations favored by Urban Meyer, the Super Fastball of Missouri's Gary Pinkel (where the ball is intended to be snapped in only 10 seconds) and the Air Raid offense of Texas Tech's Mike Leach.

Another criticism of the run & shoot is that with no tight ends in the formation on the offensive line and maybe only one running back in the backfield to pick up linebackers or safeties on a blitz, the quarterback is subject to being hit several times (and injured) during a game. A lot of those hits come from linebackers, safeties or "speed-rush" defensive ends who, due to the lack of blockers, may get to the quarterback completely untouched.

 

[The Panch]

LOL @ this dude predicting Farva to throw for over 400 yards. Our secondary has a few major holes in it, but we aint that bad.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

So out of 12 categories, we only have the edge in three?

And BTW, he says they have a good run defense? They're 12th in the league in rushing yards/game, and 18th in YPC.

Especially after watching that Lions game, I'm not seeing this great young defense I've heard so much about.

 

[superpunk]

lol...**** the packers.

 

[The Panch]

So out of 12 categories, we only have the edge in three?

And BTW, he says they have a good run defense? They're 12th in the league in rushing yards/game, and 18th in YPC.

Especially after watching that Lions game, I'm not seeing this great young defense I've heard so much about.

The funny thing is, if the Lions didnt have such a pathetic O-line and Calvin Johnson wasnt dropping easy crucial passes in GB's side of the field, the stats would've shown how much more well Kitna lit up that secondary's ***.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

9 + 81 + 82 + Jc = Sb#6

 

[smarta5150]

9 + 81 + 82 + Jc = Sb#6

What position would Jesus play if he could suit up on Sundays?

 

[Aikbach]

The pregame sounds alot like the Bears game, I hope the outcome is exactly the same.

34-10 Cowboys.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

What position would Jesus play if he could suit up on Sundays?

What if God was one of us?

 

[CowboyBlog]

What position would Jesus play if he could suit up on Sundays?

Jesus would be a kicker. In college, he never really had the size or speed to compete for an offensive skill position and he was morally against playing defense.

I think he was at his best when he was bending feild goal kicks to get inside the uprights.

Just keep him away from the water jugs.

 

[CowboyBlog]

I think the packers have done well, but I dont see them beating the Cowboys this weak. I think Farve is at his worst when the pass rush scares him. That is when he forces balls and ends up throwing tons of ints.

I think our rush will decide the game early if our offense puts some points on the board. If it is close late, then I worry that our boys will be too tired to rush and Farve will have a better game.


Either way, I hate the packers and I hate the dope smoking farve.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

I think the packers have done well, but I dont see them beating the Cowboys this weak. I think Farve is at his worst when the pass rush scares him. That is when he forces balls and ends up throwing tons of ints.

I think our rush will decide the game early if our offense puts some points on the board. If it is close late, then I worry that our boys will be too tired to rush and Farve will have a better game.


Either way, I hate the packers and I hate the dope smoking farve.

The Old INT Favre will show up on thursday.... the only question is... will he show up or will be bring it out of him

 

[smarta5150]

Jesus would be a kicker. In college, he never really had the size or speed to compete for an offensive skill position and he was morally against playing defense.

I think he was at his best when he was bending feild goal kicks to get inside the uprights.

Just keep him away from the water jugs.