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(March 19, 2007): It's still early for a mock draft, but with free-agent signings slowing down a bit, it might be a good time to look at a few draft-day trades that could make the 2007 draft very interesting.
With each passing week, the free-agent signings and the latest information coming out of the Pro Day workouts clear up the draft picture. I had nine changes from the first mock draft to the second mock draft, and now with a few hypothetical trades and draft boards adjustments, there are 12 more changes.
Note: Changes from the second mock draft are marked with an asterisk.
1. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU -- The Raiders have a lot of needs, but as long as quarterback is one of them, they have to respond by selecting the guy with the great deep ball. I could see a move down, especially now that Cleveland will not need Adrian Peterson and someone was counting on tackle Joe Thomas or wide receiver Calvin Johnson.
2. **Tampa Bay (after trade with Detroit): Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech -- There is a relationship between Lions head coach Rod Marinelli and Tampa Bay general manager Bruce Allen and Allen loves to make deals. After the great workout by Johnson, it's time to move up to get him but not until the Raiders make their selection. There's no sense to move up if Johnson is already gone. The Lions get Tampa's second- and fourth-round selections to move down.
3. Cleveland: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin -- The signing of Jamal Lewis turned the top of this draft upside down. Thomas reminds me of the year general manager Phil Savage, then with the Ravens, took Jonathan Ogden with the third pick in the draft. Thomas can start for 10 years, but the Browns still need a quarterback.
4. **Detroit (after trade with Tampa Bay): Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame -- Detroit selects the quarterback of the future and will come back early in the second round with picks Nos. 34 and 35 and get the critical needs at safety and linebacker.
5. Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson -- The Cardinals could move up for Joe Thomas or move down a slot or two and take Levi Brown, but unless they have a dealmaker in the building, they stay put and improve the pass rush.
6. Washington: Alan Branch, NT, Michigan -- The Commanders will consider the best pass rusher at this spot but Branch is rare and can move for a big man. He may make the defensive ends better by just being on the field. The NFC East wants to run the ball and Branch is the best run stuffer.
7. **Atlanta (after trade with Minnesota): LaRon Landry, S, LSU -- With Brady Quinn gone, the Vikings are interested in moving down and the Falcons don't want to miss the opportunity to get Landry. Minnesota gets Atlanta's third-round selection to move three spots.
8. Houston: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State -- Signing Ahman Green to run the ball addressed a need for the Texans and Levi Brown addresses another big need. He plugs in at left tackle and plays for 10-plus years. The Texans say they will not move up for Quinn so this is the best choice right now.
9. Miami: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville -- A young, quick as a hiccup defensive tackle who can disrupt the pass protections and run block scheme is just what the Dolphins need with aging Zack Thomas, Jason Taylor and Joey Porter leading the way.
10. **Minnesota (after trade with Atlanta): Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas -- The Vikings still get Anderson to help bolster the pass rush. And with the third-round selection they pick up from Atlanta, the Vikings can put it together with their second-round pick to move up to the bottom of the first round to draft a wide receiver.
11. San Francisco: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska -- Carriker is a great fit for coach Mike Nolan and his desire to build a solid 3-4 defense with high-character players. He plugs in as a rookie and holds his spot for eight to 10 years.
12. Buffalo: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma -- The Bills need a back more than anything now that Willis McGahee has been traded. They may find a player in free agency or a trade but for now this makes perfect sense.
13. **St. Louis: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh -- There was a lot of debate on the Rams' pick this weekend by club executives studying this every day. Last week it was Leon Hall, but when Revis turned in a 4.39 40-yard dash with his size, they switch.
14. Carolina: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi -- Some people have Willis in the second round, but the 240-pound linebacker ran a 4.51 and the Panthers need linebacker help so they can stop worrying about Dan Morgan and his injuries.
15. Pittsburgh: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State -- Posluszny is a Steelers-type guy with football intelligence who can make plays no matter what scheme they eventually wind up in.
16. Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California -- The Packer needs a back and Lynch can catch the ball as well as run with it. I could see Green Bay in a serious discussion about tight end Greg Olsen at this spot.
17. Jacksonville: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida -- Deon Grant is gone so a starting safety is needed. There will be discussions about other safeties like Michael Griffin, but the personal workout by Nelson the other day should make him the choice.
18. **Cincinnati: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan -- The Bengals need help on defense, but the top two tackles are gone as well as the top two safeties. Revis escaped them after his great workout so they turn to Hall at this spot.
19. Tennessee: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC -- Drew Bennett is gone and offensive coordinator Norm Chow needs a few of his 'own guys.' Jarrett scores touchdowns and is a very big target in the red zone. Some people have Jarrett out of the first round, but he scored a touchdown every five receptions.
20. **N.Y. Giants: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State -- The Giants need a linebacker, and now that Cato June has signed with the Bucs, the free-agent market is lean.
21. Denver: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida -- The Broncos lost out in their pursuit of Patrick Kerney so Moss makes some sense at this spot.
22. Dallas: Michael Griffin, S, Texas -- The Cowboys will look at the best corners, safeties and wide receivers at this spot. With three or four solid wide receivers and at least two defensive backs left with first-round grades, Jerry Jones will get a good player.
23. Kansas City: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State -- If Ginn does fall to the Chiefs, it will be a big day for the Kansas City offense. Ginn will push the field and open up underneath lanes for tight end Tony Gonzalez.
24. **Seattle (after trade with New England): Greg Olsen, TE, Miami -- The Saints need a tight end and they must get ahead of the Jets to get Olsen. New Orleans gives up a fourth-round pick to move up.
25. **N.Y. Jets: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas -- The Jets need help in the secondary and on the defensive line, and now that Olsen is gone, they discuss the remaining corners and take Ross.
26. **Philadelphia: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas -- The Eagles need a corner and a safety to go a long with a top-flight outside linebacker. They signed Kevin Curtis this week to eliminate the wide receiver need and Houston falls to Philadelphia because the Giants went for a linebacker.
27. **New England (after trade with New Orleans): Anthony Spencer, LB/DE, Purdue -- Even though the Patriots signed Adalius Thomas, Spencer makes plays and is a long-term answer opposite Thomas.
28. New England: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State -- Bill Belichick has gone to the Fresno players in the past and McCauley will help a Patriots secondary that needs fresh talent.
29. Baltimore: Ryan Kalil, C, USC -- The Ravens don't need running back Michael Bush, so it would be smart to take the best outside linebacker to help replace Adalius Thomas or take Kalil and not worry about center for the next 10 years.
30. San Diego: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee -- The Chargers need an injection of young receivers and Meachem looked fast and smooth at the Combine. If he falls to San Diego, this would be a steal for the team. If he doesn't and Dwayne Bowe is available, he's another great choice.
31. Chicago: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU -- Chicago could really use tackle Joe Staley but Bowe should have a higher grade. There's a lot of good talent still left in this draft.
32. **Indianapolis: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami -- It would not surprise me to see Colts general manger Bill Polian look at a defensive tackle, cornerback, safety or outside linebacker here, maybe a defensive tackle like Tank Tyler or a corner like Daymeion Hughes? But the best outside 'backer on the board wins out as the replacement for Cato June.
LINK
With each passing week, the free-agent signings and the latest information coming out of the Pro Day workouts clear up the draft picture. I had nine changes from the first mock draft to the second mock draft, and now with a few hypothetical trades and draft boards adjustments, there are 12 more changes.
Note: Changes from the second mock draft are marked with an asterisk.
1. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU -- The Raiders have a lot of needs, but as long as quarterback is one of them, they have to respond by selecting the guy with the great deep ball. I could see a move down, especially now that Cleveland will not need Adrian Peterson and someone was counting on tackle Joe Thomas or wide receiver Calvin Johnson.
2. **Tampa Bay (after trade with Detroit): Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech -- There is a relationship between Lions head coach Rod Marinelli and Tampa Bay general manager Bruce Allen and Allen loves to make deals. After the great workout by Johnson, it's time to move up to get him but not until the Raiders make their selection. There's no sense to move up if Johnson is already gone. The Lions get Tampa's second- and fourth-round selections to move down.
3. Cleveland: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin -- The signing of Jamal Lewis turned the top of this draft upside down. Thomas reminds me of the year general manager Phil Savage, then with the Ravens, took Jonathan Ogden with the third pick in the draft. Thomas can start for 10 years, but the Browns still need a quarterback.
4. **Detroit (after trade with Tampa Bay): Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame -- Detroit selects the quarterback of the future and will come back early in the second round with picks Nos. 34 and 35 and get the critical needs at safety and linebacker.
5. Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson -- The Cardinals could move up for Joe Thomas or move down a slot or two and take Levi Brown, but unless they have a dealmaker in the building, they stay put and improve the pass rush.
6. Washington: Alan Branch, NT, Michigan -- The Commanders will consider the best pass rusher at this spot but Branch is rare and can move for a big man. He may make the defensive ends better by just being on the field. The NFC East wants to run the ball and Branch is the best run stuffer.
7. **Atlanta (after trade with Minnesota): LaRon Landry, S, LSU -- With Brady Quinn gone, the Vikings are interested in moving down and the Falcons don't want to miss the opportunity to get Landry. Minnesota gets Atlanta's third-round selection to move three spots.
8. Houston: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State -- Signing Ahman Green to run the ball addressed a need for the Texans and Levi Brown addresses another big need. He plugs in at left tackle and plays for 10-plus years. The Texans say they will not move up for Quinn so this is the best choice right now.
9. Miami: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville -- A young, quick as a hiccup defensive tackle who can disrupt the pass protections and run block scheme is just what the Dolphins need with aging Zack Thomas, Jason Taylor and Joey Porter leading the way.
10. **Minnesota (after trade with Atlanta): Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas -- The Vikings still get Anderson to help bolster the pass rush. And with the third-round selection they pick up from Atlanta, the Vikings can put it together with their second-round pick to move up to the bottom of the first round to draft a wide receiver.
11. San Francisco: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska -- Carriker is a great fit for coach Mike Nolan and his desire to build a solid 3-4 defense with high-character players. He plugs in as a rookie and holds his spot for eight to 10 years.
12. Buffalo: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma -- The Bills need a back more than anything now that Willis McGahee has been traded. They may find a player in free agency or a trade but for now this makes perfect sense.
13. **St. Louis: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh -- There was a lot of debate on the Rams' pick this weekend by club executives studying this every day. Last week it was Leon Hall, but when Revis turned in a 4.39 40-yard dash with his size, they switch.
14. Carolina: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi -- Some people have Willis in the second round, but the 240-pound linebacker ran a 4.51 and the Panthers need linebacker help so they can stop worrying about Dan Morgan and his injuries.
15. Pittsburgh: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State -- Posluszny is a Steelers-type guy with football intelligence who can make plays no matter what scheme they eventually wind up in.
16. Green Bay: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California -- The Packer needs a back and Lynch can catch the ball as well as run with it. I could see Green Bay in a serious discussion about tight end Greg Olsen at this spot.
17. Jacksonville: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida -- Deon Grant is gone so a starting safety is needed. There will be discussions about other safeties like Michael Griffin, but the personal workout by Nelson the other day should make him the choice.
18. **Cincinnati: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan -- The Bengals need help on defense, but the top two tackles are gone as well as the top two safeties. Revis escaped them after his great workout so they turn to Hall at this spot.
19. Tennessee: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC -- Drew Bennett is gone and offensive coordinator Norm Chow needs a few of his 'own guys.' Jarrett scores touchdowns and is a very big target in the red zone. Some people have Jarrett out of the first round, but he scored a touchdown every five receptions.
20. **N.Y. Giants: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State -- The Giants need a linebacker, and now that Cato June has signed with the Bucs, the free-agent market is lean.
21. Denver: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida -- The Broncos lost out in their pursuit of Patrick Kerney so Moss makes some sense at this spot.
22. Dallas: Michael Griffin, S, Texas -- The Cowboys will look at the best corners, safeties and wide receivers at this spot. With three or four solid wide receivers and at least two defensive backs left with first-round grades, Jerry Jones will get a good player.
23. Kansas City: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State -- If Ginn does fall to the Chiefs, it will be a big day for the Kansas City offense. Ginn will push the field and open up underneath lanes for tight end Tony Gonzalez.
24. **Seattle (after trade with New England): Greg Olsen, TE, Miami -- The Saints need a tight end and they must get ahead of the Jets to get Olsen. New Orleans gives up a fourth-round pick to move up.
25. **N.Y. Jets: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas -- The Jets need help in the secondary and on the defensive line, and now that Olsen is gone, they discuss the remaining corners and take Ross.
26. **Philadelphia: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas -- The Eagles need a corner and a safety to go a long with a top-flight outside linebacker. They signed Kevin Curtis this week to eliminate the wide receiver need and Houston falls to Philadelphia because the Giants went for a linebacker.
27. **New England (after trade with New Orleans): Anthony Spencer, LB/DE, Purdue -- Even though the Patriots signed Adalius Thomas, Spencer makes plays and is a long-term answer opposite Thomas.
28. New England: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State -- Bill Belichick has gone to the Fresno players in the past and McCauley will help a Patriots secondary that needs fresh talent.
29. Baltimore: Ryan Kalil, C, USC -- The Ravens don't need running back Michael Bush, so it would be smart to take the best outside linebacker to help replace Adalius Thomas or take Kalil and not worry about center for the next 10 years.
30. San Diego: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee -- The Chargers need an injection of young receivers and Meachem looked fast and smooth at the Combine. If he falls to San Diego, this would be a steal for the team. If he doesn't and Dwayne Bowe is available, he's another great choice.
31. Chicago: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU -- Chicago could really use tackle Joe Staley but Bowe should have a higher grade. There's a lot of good talent still left in this draft.
32. **Indianapolis: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami -- It would not surprise me to see Colts general manger Bill Polian look at a defensive tackle, cornerback, safety or outside linebacker here, maybe a defensive tackle like Tank Tyler or a corner like Daymeion Hughes? But the best outside 'backer on the board wins out as the replacement for Cato June.
LINK
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