Galian Beast
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Despite this season not going like we wanted it to, I do think there is a lot of reason to feel positively about this team. I think we still have the framework to be really good next year, and we're still in a situation this year where we could find ourselves in the playoffs with a fresh start.
Pros
Despite not having the defensive line firing on all cylinders, I think the defense has played extremely well this year. If not for the suspensions to McClain and Hardy, I think it would have easily been a top defense. Despite getting really no help from the offense and the two suspensions to top players, we're 5th in the nfl in yards allowed per game. We're 15th in points allowed per game (That includes a lot of points the offense and special teams have given up). We've given up 4 interceptions for touchdowns, 1 fumble for touchdown, 1 KR for touchdown. This defense has played well enough to win the last 7 games we've played.
I think that if we end up re-signing Hardy, and he comes into the next season less rusty, he will be more effective. I also think that we'll get more production out of Randy Gregory next year. The key for me on defense is that we still need to improve the secondary, which can actually be done very easily. Actually if you improve the secondary and you get a quality replacement for Hayden who can actually stop the run, I think you have one of the best defenses in the league. The pass rush needs to improve, but the secondary just doesn't play the ball, they are reactionary at best. 2:1 TD to interception ratio, and part of the problem is our offense, but it still needs to improve.
#1 Scandrick returns next year.
#2 You replace Carr in Free agency next year. If Josh Norman isn't franchised, I would definitely go after him.
#3 You draft one or two players high in the draft.
#4 Byron Jones improves in year 2, especially if he can focus just on FS.
You have a focus on Green or Collins being your starting right tackle next year. I include Collins, not because I want him to play right tackle at this point, but because if Green fails, at least you can start Leary and Collins, but hopefully you don't need to invest anymore in the position. That is the primary reason I would be playing Green now over Free, so you can at least get a baseline for him going into the offseason.
Cons
Offense simply isn't what it should be. I've said it for the month or so. This offense needs more speed and more catalytic players. Witten is great, but he is slow. Beasley is great but he is limited. Williams can be a playmaker but he is inconsistent. Dez and really no single receiver can carry an entire offense by themselves.
I think the primary focus should be getting the best running back available next year, whether it be Henry or Elliot.
RB1 Henry/Elliot.
RB2 Dunbar
RB3 Turbin
With Elliot or Henry, I think you can probably get away with having Williams as the WR2 for one more year, though I still would like to see Brice Butler in there.
Summary
I think the plan should be pretty simple for us this offseason. Improve the secondary and get a dynamic running back. I would probably make coaching changes at the following positions.
Entire Secondary
Defensive Line
Offensive Line
Wide Receiver
Quarterback
Special Teams
I keep Linehan one more year because I've seen him get the job done before. I'm still pretty happy with Marinelli.
I've always felt like our offensive scheme was entirely too limited and entirely too predicated on everything going exactly right. People think our offense sucks and right now it absolutely does. Teams are not afraid of our offense and as a result they do not take chances with our defense, which limits the pass rush and limits the turnovers. That could change if we can make it to the playoffs and Romo returns and plays well.
Not sure what happened with Romo in that Thanksgiving game, but he was just forcing the ball. Let me note that protection was definitely not great that game. We lost to the undefeated Panthers 33-14. 14 of their points came out Tony Romo interceptions, and we turned the ball over 3 times. They scored another field goal off an interception. That's 17 points off of turnovers. We ran the ball 12 times with running backs that day... It's vital that we still establish the run and if we're going to do anything in remaining games we're going to have to establish that running game somehow. Drafting one of the top 2 running backs could put us back on track pretty easily.
We're going to have to push the ball down the field in the air and make defenses at the very least respect the pass. I'd rather we lose putting the air in the ball rather than play to lose like we have most of the season. You look at the two "best" losses this year and they were to the Giants and Eagles where we had Cassel airing the ball out, which opened up the running game. That is why Murray was able to have so much success last year, not just because he had some talent, but because teams had to deal with a lot of facets in our offense and we used that multiplicity to keep the chains moving.
I keep going back and forth on re-signing Hardy, but my fear would be that the defense would implode without him and we would be forced to allocate a lot of resources trying to replace him. At this point I say sign him to a one year incentive based deal. I'm solidly on the side of re-signing McClain to a medium term deal with an exit clause.
Pros
Despite not having the defensive line firing on all cylinders, I think the defense has played extremely well this year. If not for the suspensions to McClain and Hardy, I think it would have easily been a top defense. Despite getting really no help from the offense and the two suspensions to top players, we're 5th in the nfl in yards allowed per game. We're 15th in points allowed per game (That includes a lot of points the offense and special teams have given up). We've given up 4 interceptions for touchdowns, 1 fumble for touchdown, 1 KR for touchdown. This defense has played well enough to win the last 7 games we've played.
I think that if we end up re-signing Hardy, and he comes into the next season less rusty, he will be more effective. I also think that we'll get more production out of Randy Gregory next year. The key for me on defense is that we still need to improve the secondary, which can actually be done very easily. Actually if you improve the secondary and you get a quality replacement for Hayden who can actually stop the run, I think you have one of the best defenses in the league. The pass rush needs to improve, but the secondary just doesn't play the ball, they are reactionary at best. 2:1 TD to interception ratio, and part of the problem is our offense, but it still needs to improve.
#1 Scandrick returns next year.
#2 You replace Carr in Free agency next year. If Josh Norman isn't franchised, I would definitely go after him.
#3 You draft one or two players high in the draft.
#4 Byron Jones improves in year 2, especially if he can focus just on FS.
You have a focus on Green or Collins being your starting right tackle next year. I include Collins, not because I want him to play right tackle at this point, but because if Green fails, at least you can start Leary and Collins, but hopefully you don't need to invest anymore in the position. That is the primary reason I would be playing Green now over Free, so you can at least get a baseline for him going into the offseason.
Cons
Offense simply isn't what it should be. I've said it for the month or so. This offense needs more speed and more catalytic players. Witten is great, but he is slow. Beasley is great but he is limited. Williams can be a playmaker but he is inconsistent. Dez and really no single receiver can carry an entire offense by themselves.
I think the primary focus should be getting the best running back available next year, whether it be Henry or Elliot.
RB1 Henry/Elliot.
RB2 Dunbar
RB3 Turbin
With Elliot or Henry, I think you can probably get away with having Williams as the WR2 for one more year, though I still would like to see Brice Butler in there.
Summary
I think the plan should be pretty simple for us this offseason. Improve the secondary and get a dynamic running back. I would probably make coaching changes at the following positions.
Entire Secondary
Defensive Line
Offensive Line
Wide Receiver
Quarterback
Special Teams
I keep Linehan one more year because I've seen him get the job done before. I'm still pretty happy with Marinelli.
I've always felt like our offensive scheme was entirely too limited and entirely too predicated on everything going exactly right. People think our offense sucks and right now it absolutely does. Teams are not afraid of our offense and as a result they do not take chances with our defense, which limits the pass rush and limits the turnovers. That could change if we can make it to the playoffs and Romo returns and plays well.
Not sure what happened with Romo in that Thanksgiving game, but he was just forcing the ball. Let me note that protection was definitely not great that game. We lost to the undefeated Panthers 33-14. 14 of their points came out Tony Romo interceptions, and we turned the ball over 3 times. They scored another field goal off an interception. That's 17 points off of turnovers. We ran the ball 12 times with running backs that day... It's vital that we still establish the run and if we're going to do anything in remaining games we're going to have to establish that running game somehow. Drafting one of the top 2 running backs could put us back on track pretty easily.
We're going to have to push the ball down the field in the air and make defenses at the very least respect the pass. I'd rather we lose putting the air in the ball rather than play to lose like we have most of the season. You look at the two "best" losses this year and they were to the Giants and Eagles where we had Cassel airing the ball out, which opened up the running game. That is why Murray was able to have so much success last year, not just because he had some talent, but because teams had to deal with a lot of facets in our offense and we used that multiplicity to keep the chains moving.
I keep going back and forth on re-signing Hardy, but my fear would be that the defense would implode without him and we would be forced to allocate a lot of resources trying to replace him. At this point I say sign him to a one year incentive based deal. I'm solidly on the side of re-signing McClain to a medium term deal with an exit clause.