Numbers Confirm It: Romo Already Top 3

percyhoward

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This is not a post about team accomplishments or post-season skins on the wall. It's a look at on-the-field individual performance over the last 19 weeks of regular season play. All these numbers were put up from the week of Romo's first start in week 8 last year until the games last weekend.

HUGE GAMES/CONSISTENCY

Code:
[B][I]Games, Rating above 120[/I][/B]
Brady     7
[COLOR="Red"]Romo      5[/COLOR]
Manning   5
Brees     4
Palmer    3
Roethlis  3
Bulger    2
McNabb    2
Favre     1

Only Brady has had more games of the "huge" variety.

Code:
[B][I]Games, Rating under 80[/I][/B]
(19 games unless otherwise indicated)
Manning    3 
Garcia     3 (16 g) 
[COLOR="Red"]Romo       4[/COLOR]
Brady      4
Garrard    5 (16 g)
Roethlis   6
Palmer     6
Kitna      6 (18 g)
Brees      7
Hasselbeck 6 (15 g)

McNabb     6 (13 g)
Favre      8 (including 2 this year)

Only two quarterbacks have had fewer bad games than Romo over the last nineteen. Both are in their 10th year of pro football. Pro Bowl vets like Brees, McNabb, and Favre will have their monster games, but will also have more than their share of horrible performances. Since Romo has been starting, he's had more in common with Brady and Manning than with those other guys. And remember, 3 of Romo's 4 bad games were last year.

Comparing 2006 to 2007 (to date), only Romo, Manning, Palmer, and McNabb have had 90+ ratings in both seasons. In fact Romo is the only QB who has had higher than a 92 rating both years. Remarkable, given the fact that he wasn't even playing in 2005.

3 QB's stand out in terms of consistency combined with big performances: Brady, Manning, Romo.



Here are some of the more standard measurements of a QB's regular season:

Code:
[B][I]Completion percentage[/I][/B]
Brady    69.0
Manning  65.8
Brees    65.5
[COLOR="Red"]Romo     65.4[/COLOR]
Kitna    64.5
Garcia   64.3
Palmer   63.3
Garrard  62.5
Bulger   62.4
Roeth    62.1

Code:
[B][I]TD/Int Ratio[/I][/B]
Garcia     3.8 
Brady      3.6
Manning    2.1
[COLOR="Red"]Romo       1.9[/COLOR]
Palmer     1.8
Garrard    1.8
Brees      1.7
Roeth      1.5
Anderson   1.5
Hasselbeck 1.4
Rivers     1.4

Code:
[B][I]Games, 300+ yards passing[/I][/B]
[COLOR="Red"]Romo    8[/COLOR]
Brees   8
Bulger  8
Favre   7
Brady   6
Manning 6
Kitna   4
Palmer  4

Code:
[B][I]TD[/I][/B]
Brady      47
[COLOR="Red"]Romo       39[/COLOR]
Manning    35
Palmer     35
Roeth      35
Brees      32
Anderson   25
Favre      25
Kitna      24
Hasselbeck 23
Rivers     23

Code:
[B][I]Yards[/I][/B]
Brees    5,356
[COLOR="Red"]Romo     5,196[/COLOR]
Manning  5,163
Favre    5,161
Palmer   5,081
Brady    4,989
Kitna    4,649
Roeth    4,490
Bulger   4,284
Rivers   3,801

Code:
[B][I]Yards per attempt[/I][/B]
[COLOR="Red"]Romo     8.63[/COLOR]
Brady    7.97
Roeth    7.90
Palmer   7.79
Manning  7.75
Brees    7.46
Anderson 7.39
Garrard  7.39
Kitna    7.37
Garcia   7.36

Yards per attempt is one of the better measuring sticks for passing performance, because it measures both distance and accuracy. Look closely at how 2nd thru 10th are bunched together here, separated by .61 yard. There is actually more yardage separating Romo from Brady (.66 yard). IOW, Romo, in his first 19 career starts, has pulled away from this pack of veterans.

Code:
[B][I]Passer Rating[/I][/B]
Brady    109.2
[COLOR="Red"]Romo      99.6[/COLOR]
Manning   96.1
Garcia    95.9
Palmer    93.1
Brees     91.3
Roethlis  90.4
Garrard   89.0
McNabb    88.3
Kitna     85.3

Garcia ranks high because he doesn't throw interceptions. He's very selective about throwing deep, and he destroys blitzes. In short, he's a wily 37-year old veteran. On this list, only Romo and Roethlisberger were born in the 80's. And although Ben is two years younger than Romo, he also has two more full seasons' worth of wear on the tires.

There are only 6 QB's who rank in every one of the nine categories listed. Romo, by far the least experienced of the six, is the only player ranked among the top 4 in each category.

Brady 1 3 1 2 5 1 1 6 2
Romo 2 3 4 4 1 2 2 2 1
Manning 2 1 2 3 5 3 3 3 5
Brees 4 9 3 7 2 6 6 1 6
Palmer 5 6 7 5 7 5 4 5 4
Roeth. 5 6 10 8 9 7 5 8 3

Again, looking at this, you get the sense of a "Big 3" who have separated themselves from the others over the last 19 weeks of play. And one of the three is an undrafted free agent who never started a game prior to that period.
 

trickblue

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This is all fine and well, but what happens when teams finally figure him out? ;)
 

03EBZ06

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Great analysis PersyHoward, nice job. However, Romo needs all that important "poise" to catch up with J. Campbell. ;)


Seriously, it's truely amazing what Romo has accomplished since middle of last season and greating about this is, he could only bet better with more game-experience.

Again, nicely done. :thumbup:
 

BigDFan5

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trickblue;1769100 said:
This is all fine and well, but what happens when teams finally figure him out? ;)

That book is coming any day now
 

INcowboy

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I still think Carson Palmer is number 3 on the QB list. He has done it for multiple years.
 

YosemiteSam

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trickblue;1769100 said:
This is all fine and well, but what happens when teams finally figure him out? ;)

They already did. Everyone said he was exposed in the Bills game. :lmao2:
 

Stash

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A great post, well done. I appreciate the time and effort you put into it. Those numbers really show what Romo has accomplished in a short period of time.

Now if he can keep it up we're set!
 

bobtheflob

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Great post, thanks! There are a few Commanders fans around the office I'll have to show this to.
 

percyhoward

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RW31;1769163 said:
he still throws too many interceptions
Only Garcia, Brady, and Manning have a better touchdown to INT ratio than Romo since he became a starter.
 

percyhoward

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INcowboy;1769123 said:
I still think Carson Palmer is number 3 on the QB list. He has done it for multiple years.
He is gonna have to step it up to keep up with Romo, because the last 19 games he is behind him in every one of these categories.

And that is assuming Romo has leveled off, which is the opposite of what appears to be the case.
 

Pittman4Two

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I noticed how you completely left Garcia out of some of the statistical stat lines. Obviously there's some jealousy here in your post.

Garcia has been huge all season. So let me help you out. It's a team game and every week the quarterback may have a good game or he may not. Without Garcia, I doubt we would even sniff first place in the Southern division. So, in my opinion, here's how your stats should look:
HUGE GAMES/CONSISTENCY

Code:
[B][I]Games, Rating above 120[/I][/B]
GARCIA  9
Brady     7
[COLOR=red]Romo      5[/COLOR]
Manning   5
Brees     4
Palmer    3
Roethlis  3
Bulger    2
McNabb    2
Favre     1

Only Brady has had more games of the "huge" variety.

Code:
[B][I]Games, Rating under 80[/I][/B]
(19 games unless otherwise indicated)
Manning    3 
Garcia     3 (16 g) + 6 = 9
[COLOR=red]Romo       4[/COLOR]
Brady      4
Garrard    5 (16 g)
Roethlis   6
Palmer     6
Kitna      6 (18 g)
Brees      7
Hasselbeck 6 (15 g)
 
McNabb     6 (13 g)
Favre      8 (including 2 this year)

3 QB's stand out in terms of consistency combined with big performances: Brady, Manning, Romo, and Garcia.



Here are some of the more standard measurements of a QB's regular season:

Code:
[B][I]Completion percentage[/I][/B]
Brady    69.0
Manning  65.8
Brees    65.5
[COLOR=red]Romo     65.4[/COLOR]
Kitna    64.5
Garcia   64.3 (does not account for dropped passes...adding in non-incompletions puts Garcia way above Brady)
Palmer   63.3
Garrard  62.5
Bulger   62.4
Roeth    62.1

Code:
[B][I]TD/Int Ratio[/I][/B]
[B][I][COLOR=red]Garcia     3.8[/COLOR][/I][/B] 
Brady      3.6
Manning    2.1
[COLOR=red]Romo       1.9[/COLOR]
Palmer     1.8
Garrard    1.8
Brees      1.7
Roeth      1.5
Anderson   1.5
Hasselbeck 1.4
Rivers     1.4

Code:
[B][I]Games, 300+ yards passing (IOTW, not a big deal)[/I][/B]
[COLOR=red]Romo    8[/COLOR]
Brees   8
Bulger  8
Favre   7
Brady   6
Manning 6
Kitna   4
Palmer  4

Code:
[B][I]TD[/I][/B]
GARCIA 200+ (not counting the CFL days)
Brady      47
[COLOR=red]Romo       39[/COLOR]
Manning    35
Palmer     35
Roeth      35
Brees      32
Anderson   25
Favre      25
Kitna      24
Hasselbeck 23
Rivers     23

Code:
[B][I]Yards[/I][/B]
GARCIA lots more in a impeccable career
Brees    5,356
[COLOR=red]Romo     5,196[/COLOR]
Manning  5,163
Favre    5,161
Palmer   5,081
Brady    4,989
Kitna    4,649
Roeth    4,490
Bulger   4,284
Rivers   3,801

Code:
[B][I]Yards per attempt[/I][/B]
[COLOR=red]Romo     8.63[/COLOR]
Brady    7.97
Roeth    7.90
Palmer   7.79
Manning  7.75
Brees    7.46
Anderson 7.39
Garrard  7.39
Kitna    7.37
Garcia   7.36 (not his fault if the receivers don't run routes longer than 7.36 yards)

Code:
[B][I]Passer Rating[/I][/B]
Brady    109.2
[COLOR=red]Romo      99.6[/COLOR]
Manning   96.1
Garcia    95.9 (add in the leader rating and it tops Brady easily)
Palmer    93.1
Brees     91.3
Roethlis  90.4
Garrard   89.0
McNabb    88.3
Kitna     85.3

Garcia ranks high because he doesn't throw interceptions. He's very selective about throwing deep, and he destroys blitzes. In short, he's a wily 37-year old veteran. On this list, only Romo and Roethlisberger were born in the 80's. And although Ben is two years younger than Romo, he also has two more full seasons' worth of wear on the tires.

What does being born in the 80's have to do with a hill of beans? Does that mean they grew up during the Madonna years and are more prepared than people who grew up during the Dianna Ross years?
 

03EBZ06

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Regular season Win/Loss by top QBs...

Brady 16 - 3

Romo 14 - 5

Favre 14 - 5

Manning 13 - 6

Roethlisberger 13 - 6

Brees 9 - 10

Palmer 7 - 12
 

bobtheflob

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I averaged up their rankings and this is what I got:
Romo 2.33
Brady 2.44
Manning 3.00
Brees 4.89
Palmer 5.33
Roeth. 6.78
 

percyhoward

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Pittman4Two;1769235 said:
I noticed how you completely left Garcia out of some of the statistical stat lines. Obviously there's some jealousy here in your post.
:lmao2:

You are including (among other questionable numbers) stats from his entire career. I was looking at the last 19 games only.
 

03EBZ06

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percyhoward;1769247 said:
:lmao2:

You are including (among other questionable numbers) stats from his entire career. I was looking at the last 19 games only.
Isn't 19 games pretty close to Garcia's entire career? :D
 

Pittman4Two

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percyhoward;1769247 said:
:lmao2:

You are including (among other questionable numbers) stats from his entire career. I was looking at the last 19 games only.


So how many wins did those other guys have before the last 19 games? :cool:
 

burmafrd

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Pitrube, you are pathetic. Every QB has wr with drops (TO last year especially). Just about all your entries you made excuses for Garcia. TRULY pathetic. Find me any one but Buc homers and Cowboys haters that would take Garcia RIGHT now over Romo.
 
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