“Infamous for his failures in the clutch, Tony Romo worked hard to fix careless mistakes and is now changing the narrative” – Peter king
And so the narrative goes. Nearly every media pundit, opposing fan, and sadly even many Cowboy fans have labeled Tony Romo as a choker over his career. He is widely known for late game failures in the design of the Commanders win or go home game or the Jets 4th quarter disaster. With Losses like that, it is easy to see how this perception became a reality. But when you look much deeper at Tony Romo’s performance as compared to the other top 12 QBs who are consistently discussed as the best active QB’s in the league, the results play out a completely different story. When looking at the stats below while the QB rating will jump out the most, I encourage you to pay close attention to the TD and INT ratios as those are the key stats that many pundits point to when talking about Romo’s failures, i.e., he throws big time INTs and fails to score when it matters most. . In every single scenario I look at, Romo’s INT/ATT stats rank 2nd best of all 13 QBs. This is not a stat I would expect from a choker. If you are like me and think every single game in a sixteen game season is important, you will see that Romo is one of the best clutch QBs not only in the league now, but probably of all time.
4th Quarter performance
While I am not a fan of the bleacher report, they did put out a great video yesterday that talked about how good Romo is in the 4th quarter numbers and game winning drives (and stole my thunder for this post
).
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...is-more-clutch-than-manning-rodgers-and-brady
When you dig a little deeper than what was shared in the bleacher report video, you will see even more impressive results. Cumulative stats since 2008, shows Tony Romo ranks in the top three in every meaningful QB rating (see table). Only Aaron Rodgers compares favorably to how Romo has performed in this quarter and he has a propensity to throw interceptions at a greater rate than Romo. As for the SB makes me great crowd, check out E. Manning, even look at Flacco and Roethlisberger for that matter – all bottom tier results. Even the new golden child Andrew Luck resides at the very bottom in 4th quarter performances.
When trailing with 4 min left to play performance
So many will argue, yeah Romo is good in the 4th quarter, but his real problems come when the game is on the line and you need your QB to play at a high level. Well, the story remains largely the same under this scenario with top 3 rankings in every category. As a matter of fact, compared to his peers, he elevates his game. Romo is the only one of the 13 top QBs who has rating above 100. In aggregate Romo’s statistics are above all other QBs in this situation. Romo’s INT/ATT actually goes down compared to his overall 4th Qtr stats, Only Brady cuts down on his INTs more. Again Manning and Luck are stuck down in the bottom tier.
When trailing with 2 min left to play performance
Ok, OK, we know Romo is good with 4 min left and his team is down, but the real pressure and mistakes happen when he is making that last game winning drive…when there is less than two minutes in the game and all marbles are on the table. Let’s see how Romo performs then? We know that he leads all active QBs in game winning drives and 4th Quarter come backs, and now we know he is still no worse than the second best QB in this scenario with a top 3 ranking in every category. Aaron Rodgers does improve in this scenario as well but still ranks 4th in INT/Att. Only Romo and Rodgers have a QB rating higher than 100. Again, the same three names appear at the top of these rankings (Romo, Rodgers and Manning) and the same names are in the bottom 3rd (where many pundits say are Romo’s competitive peers). Again, everything points to when the game is on the line and you need a score to win, Romo, Rodgers and Manning are the three QBs that you want on your team (surprisingly Brady is much lower and Wilson is much higher than I thought they would be). This should put to rest (but we know it won’t) any conversation about Romo not being clutch, much less a choker.
Extra Credit – Quarterback performance when the team loses
So, while I was doing my research for this and looking at the stats on different splits, the QB performance in losses caught my eye. I thought would be interesting to look at how Romo performed in games that he lost. I was interested to know if Romo compared to top QBs plays better or worse than his peers. Again Romo is near the top of the class. He is second (to Rodgers) as the most productive quarterback in losing efforts. What this tells me is that Romo gives his team the best chance to win and in most cases is not the main reason why his team loss (not to say that there are games in which Romo should shoulder most if not all of the blame). Romo is top 3 in five of the seven categories measured. He did however drop significantly in his INT/Att to 6th place which is the only instance of him ranking outside of the top 5 in any of the statistics I looked at. What is interesting is to look at the drop in Brady’s and P. Manning’s performance when they lose. They are much less effective in a loss compared to their performances in other types of splits. And as mentioned before, Luck and E. Manning are relegated to the bottom third, thus proving the fact that 1) Manning’s SB rings are a benefactor of having a better, higher performing team around him, and 2) Luck still has a lot of growth and productivity improvement needed before he should be mentioned with the elite QBs.
At the end of the day, you can slice and dice the stats in any given way, and they all come back to the same story that Romo has been one of the most efficient and productive QBs in terms of his overall performance. You some may counter that he can’t be in the conversation of the elite QBs in the league because of his lack of SBs and playoff appearances/victories, but what that really proves out, when you look at the significant accumulation of different performance metrics and they all point to Romo in the top 5 (see my previous post below on Romo’s performance), you can only conclude that football is a team sport and no matter how good any individual player is at the NFL level, it requires a lot more than one player performing well to dictate the success of a team. I am so grateful that Romo is a part of the Cowboys team, and I hope the team has it in them to bring the Lombardi trophy back home and allow Tony to enjoy the ultimate prize that his career performance deserves.
Link to my other write-up on Romo’s performance against the top QBs in the league:
http://cowboyszone.com/threads/5-year-qb-rankings-how-does-romo-stack-up.328926/#post-6228094