Odds are, Cowboys make the playoffs: formal proof

[big_neil]

1) Cowboys need to win at home (5-2) vs. St. Louis who is on the road (2-5). Odds to win for Cowboys: 5/7 (71%).

2) Carolina (5-2 on the road) at Atlanta (4-3 at home): odds Carolina loses: 3/7 (42%)

3) Washington (3-4 on the road) at Philadelphia (4-3 at home): odds Washington loses: 4/7 (57%).

Odds Carolina and Washington both win: 4/7*3/7=12/49=24%. Therefore, the odds one loses is 76%.

So there is a 76% chance Dallas plays with meaning, and there is a 71% chance Dallas wins, so the odds of both happening: 76%*71%=54%. Thus, there is a 54% chance Dalls goes to the playoffs based on this offical proof (chuckle).

Yes, Carolina has more incentive, but so do the Cowboys, so those two even out. Throw in a hurt Brunell and a proud Eagles team wanting some say in the division outcome and that helps Dallas too.

 

[Qwickdraw]

I hate stats like the these.

The law of odds states that when a stat like this is relevant, odds are it's about to turn the other way.

 

[TheSkaven]

The bookmakers would disagree on the percentages you are citing. Neither #2 or #3 are better than 50%. In fact, not having seen the spread yet, I'd guess Washington will be favored by 3 or 4 points and Carolina will be favored by about the same.

They're both road games, though, I suppose there's something to be said for that.

 

[big_neil]

This is using the overly simplistic method of assuming the average of an average road game for Wash/Car and an average home game for Phi/Atl, and an average home game for Dallas. The fact is, the chances of both Washington AND Carolina winning are not great. Even if you assume a 70% chance Wash and Car win, the odds of both happening are 70%*70% = 49%.

 

[Maikeru-sama]

Yeah, but you have to look at the qualitative data as well.

Atlanta has nothing to play for, Carolina does.

Eagles have nothing to play for, Skins do.

I hope I am wrong, but I think the Eagles have mailed it in and I dont think Vick plays much.

 

[Champsheart]

Based on my calculations there is a 95.5644% chance this thread is going to get picked apart or ignored.

 

[KDWilliams85]

I like how you broke it down but the simple fact is:

Football isn't as simple as win/loss percentage. There are too many variables that can alter those premises you laid out. IE... my affection for the Colts taking names in weather similiar to that of the RCA Dome or winning percentage if X player has Y amount of production.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

some big words in here

Wolverine should stay out

 

[NorTex]

Atlanta is playing to win.

Philly is playing to win.

People that say those teams have nothing to play for must not have played competitive sports or don't have any personal pride. IMO

BTW-Atlanta almost always beats Carolina when at home.

 

[tecolote]

The bookmakers would disagree on the percentages you are citing. Neither #2 or #3 are better than 50%. In fact, not having seen the spread yet, I'd guess Washington will be favored by 3 or 4 points and Carolina will be favored by about the same.

They're both road games, though, I suppose there's something to be said for that.

Atlanta is favored by 4

 

[KingTuna]

1) Cowboys need to win at home (5-2) vs. St. Louis who is on the road (2-5). Odds to win for Cowboys: 5/7 (71%).

2) Carolina (5-2 on the road) at Atlanta (4-3 at home): odds Carolina loses: 3/7 (42%)

3) Washington (3-4 on the road) at Philadelphia (4-3 at home): odds Washington loses: 4/7 (57%).

Odds Carolina and Washington both win: 4/7*3/7=12/49=24%. Therefore, the odds one loses is 76%.

So there is a 76% chance Dallas plays with meaning, and there is a 71% chance Dallas wins, so the odds of both happening: 76%*71%=54%. Thus, there is a 54% chance Dalls goes to the playoffs based on this offical proof (chuckle).

Yes, Carolina has more incentive, but so do the Cowboys, so those two even out. Throw in a hurt Brunell and a proud Eagles team wanting some say in the division outcome and that helps Dallas too.

hahaha!! good post! whether it's 100% accurate or not I enjoyed reading it!

 

[lcharles]

You are what you are.

A team on the outside looking in.

Should have played against the Raiders like we did against the Panthers.

Oh well, Guess I root for Mike Vick and whoever the Eagles trot out.

 

[TheSkaven]

Atlanta is favored by 4

Wow, really? I'm shocked by that line. Maybe there is hope afterall...

 

[SmashFactorGolf]

not statistically impossible, mathmatically probable, but geometrically unlikely

 

[Glenn Carano]

Yeah, but you have to look at the qualitative data as well.

Atlanta has nothing to play for, Carolina does.

Eagles have nothing to play for, Skins do.

I hope I am wrong, but I think the Eagles have mailed it in and I dont think Vick plays much.

You'd be surprised how many times a team that has nothing to play for beats a team that is playing for something. And we only need one of them to win. We'll see.

 

[DLCassidy]

Yeah, but you have to look at the qualitative data as well.

Atlanta has nothing to play for, Carolina does.

Eagles have nothing to play for, Skins do.

I hope I am wrong, but I think the Eagles have mailed it in and I dont think Vick plays much.

I have seen nothing from the Eagles recently that gives me hope in this game other than the fact they are at home. If Brunell doesn't play that changes things a bit because Ramsey has an endearing habit of throwing the ball to the wrong color jersey. That would have to happen a few times and McMahon would have to stop his habit of doing likewise. I give the Eagles a 25% chance of winning if Brunell doesn't play, 15% if he does. This has nothing to do with Philly mailing it in. They have and will play hard, they're just not very good, particularly on offense.

I also give Carolina the edge at Atlanta but not a huge edge. I would prefer it if Vick sat for the game. I think Matt Schaub gives them a better chance of winning. Carolina figured out the secret to beat Vick earlier this year. They put a spy on him and forced him to try to beat them throwing, which he could not do.

 

[FLCowboyFan]

actually Carolina is favored by 4

 

[big_neil]

I forgot to factor in the Tampa Bay/NYG factor.

Using the same logic, Tampa (5-2 at home) vs NO (2-5 on the road), there is only a 2/7 chance Tampa loses. Meanwhile NYG (3-4 on the road) at Oakland (2-5 at home), NYG loses 4/7 on the road, but Oakland only wins 2/7 at home, so there is a 3/7 chance NYG loses. Thus, the odds of BOTH NYG and Tampa losing: 3/7*2/7=6/49=12.25%, about 1 in 8. So we have a 76% chance Wash or Carolina loses (roughly 6/8) and 1/8 chance Tampa and NYG lose, so that means there is a 7/8 chance Dallas plays with meaning (88.25%), and with a 71% chance Dallas wins we have .71* 88.25 = 62.65.

Thus there is actually a 63% chance Dallas makes the playoffs.

 

[big_neil]

You'd be surprised how many times a team that has nothing to play for beats a team that is playing for something. And we only need one of them to win. We'll see.

Playing for the spoiler in the final game is itself worthy of giving a game meaning for an otherwise "meaningless" game. Atlanta knows they just barely lost to Tampa. They can still knock out Carolina and Tampa might not make it either.

In Drew's first season 1993, the Pats were 1-11 before winning 3 straight to go into the final game 4-11. They played at Miami who was playing for a "win and you're in" playoff game and with a loss they were out. Drew had a late drive to tie the game, and the game went to OT. Drew threw a long TD pass for his 4th straight win, eliminating the Dolphins and providing Drew's first OT win (he has an NFL record 4 including Min '94, Jax '97, Min '02).

 

[big_neil]

NFL record 4 TD passes in OT, that is.