Odds in the DAL-DET game

[dwmyers]

I was recently asked to figure out how to calculate offensive SRS and defensive SRS. I figured out a way, though the stat isn't unique.

As part of a series of articles on OSRS and DSRS for various teams, I did the Detroit Lions, and also calculated odds for the upcoming game using pythagoreans, simple rankings, and median point spread.

Those results are here: http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2013/10/26/2013-osrs-and-dsrs-quick-hits-detroit-lions/

An excerpt from the article:

Detroit hosts Dallas this weekend and not at all surprisingly, for two teams fairly closely matched, the three predictive systems yield three different results. Pythagoreans have Dallas and Detroit as essentially even. Simple rankings would suggest that Dallas has a slight edge. Medians suggest the opposite, that Detroit will win by about 5 points.

Note: in terms of interconverting probabilities and point spreads, we give a rough rule of thumb here:

http://codeandfootball.wordpress.com/2013/01/03/the-beginnings-of-the-nfl-playoffs-some-odds/

To just state the formula

point spread is approximately 7.4*logit(probability to win). Since logits aren't found on regular calculators, the web site Wolfram Alpha can do those calculations for you.

D-

 

[RS12]

FYI Vegas has Detroit -3

 

[CooterBrown]

FYI Vegas has Detroit -3

Which really means that Vegas thinks it is a toss-up but Detroit is the home team.

 

[dwmyers]

My calculations incorporate the traditional home field advantage (3.0 points, 60% win probability). Heck, my conversion formula is based on this rule of thumb.

 

[Staubacher]

Cowboys have covered the spread 3 weeks in a row.

That concerns me - Vegas doesn't like predictable trends like that

 

[jazzcat22]

My formula....

WIN = BEER celebration time
LOSE = A LOT MORE BEER to forget time

Keep it simple!!!!!

 

[mahoneybill]

Point spreads , who is favored, all go out the window once the game starts.

 

[Sarge]

Numbers aside, this game will come down to mistakes/turnovers/penalties.

We need to clean it up and get the mistakes down to a minimum. Good coaching is a big part of that.

 

[Bay10]

This will be a close game. Team that has the most turnovers will loose.

 

[jobberone]

Well I'm still going to watch.

 

[BAZ]

Point spreads , who is favored, all go out the window once the game starts.

Unless you place a bet at half time.

 

[JBS]

Cowboys have covered the spread 3 weeks in a row.

That concerns me - Vegas doesn't like predictable trends like that

Lololol. Ummm. No

 

[Staubacher]

Unless you place a bet at half time.

hahaha I've done that. I don't gamble anymore

 

[ElGatoGrande]

Numbers aside, this game will come down to mistakes/turnovers/penalties.

We need to clean it up and get the mistakes down to a minimum. Good coaching is a big part of that.

+1

One of my big concerns will be the officiating. The Lions are a dirty team and I still fully expect the Cowboys to be penalized twice as much as the Lions. The Cowboys need to keep themselves out of third and long needs to not give up first downs with penalties,,, a tall order if the officiating isn't balanced.

 

[mahoneybill]

Some may call it conspiracy theory, but the boys do seem to not get many holding calls from opponents.