Odds Maker: Dallas is going to get Slaughtered

[InTheZone]

30-21 doesn't seem like slaughter

Gurley must've down himself at the 1 after a 50 yard run to end the game. That's why the score doesn't reflect the yards...

 

[SackMaster]

So basically this, right?

• Cowboys at Rams (-7), O/U 49.5

Well, last year the odds for the Rams vs Falcons was

• Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) | O/U: 48

Falcons won 26-13

Not saying the Cowboys cannot be blown out, but I honestly could not care less about the betting line (well I don't bet on games anyways, but still). The games are played ON THE FIELD for a reason.

 

[DFWJC]

When a home team is only favored by 1-2 points, there are a ton of people picking the road team to win outright.

7 points?
That's a little different

Last week
Houston was even or maybe a 1pt favorite at home and lost...no surprise
Baltimore was a tight favorite at home and lost to the Chargers...no surprise either
Chicago was a favorite over Philly and lost when a winning FG banged off the upright. That was a bit of a surpise.
Dallas was slight favorite and won at home, but nobody would've been surprised either way.

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

Be that as it may, this game isn't just Dak v Goff, it's the Cowboys v the Rams. And while Dak is probably higher quality at ball protection than Goff, the team stats are what I referenced. As a team, the Rams took the ball away 10 times more than the Cowboys and gave it away 2 times less. They generated 80 more yards per game and 11 or 12 more points per game.

They score points, protect the ball and do it effectively.

This is not a non-win, I think there is an opportunity for the Cowboys to win. But there are good reasons the odds are being set as they are.

Dak is definitely better at protecting the ball than Goff. In 38 starts Goff has 26 ints, one more than Dak despite Dak starting 10 more games.

As for the Rams vs the Cowboys, let's really examine things.

Our offense does the thing that really causes the Rams defense problems. Run the ball. And since we added Amari Cooper, we now have a legit downfield threat and Gallup has started to come into his own as a rookie finding his way. So I think we have a decent advantage here.

Our defense has been very good at keeping scoring down against high powered offenses. We kept the Saints, Eagles x2, Bucs and yes even the Seahawks well under their averages. We have been able to get pressure on most teams with just our down 4, meaning we will be able to play a lot of coverage against the Rams, which is their weakness.

I agree that if we can't pressure Goff with just our DL then we are going to have a tough time holding their O down. I don't see them being able to shut our offense down, whose numbers look a hell of a lot better offensively on their winning streak than they did during the first half of the year. And for the record, our second half record was better than theirs, and their losses were to teams that we beat during that same time frame.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I just spoke to an odds maker and he advised me "Dallas is getting slaughtered." I'm trying to wonder "what do these people know that we don't know?"

"The Rams have yet to win a postseason game under coach Sean McVay's leadership, but based on the opening betting lines from Las Vegas that could be about to change. The opening betting line had the gave the Rams a seven-point spread with an over/under of 49 points, while SportsLine had the home team coming away with a 30-21 win."

The betting line is about getting both sides of the wager to bet equal money. Betting lines are in reality not very accurate to outcomes.

 

[DandyTom64]

A friend of mine is a Ram's season ticket holder. He wanted Philly.

He's close enough he could just go to Tijuana for that except I think they use males instead.

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

I am VERY hopeful that the young rams will suffer from the same malais that got the 2007 Cowboys.

You know what is interesting. We say the Rams are young....but as of opening day, our roster was younger than theirs....25.4 years to 25.5 years. No one talks about Dallas being young yet we are one of the youngest teams in the league.

 

[Mr_Strol]

The greatest oddsmakers/bettors alive cannot pick over 60% correctly for an extended period of time. This guys opinion means nothing.

 

[gmb1]

I hope these oddsmakers are wrong. I honestly can't get a good read for how this game will end up. There is a potential we could get slaughtered. We could also win as well. I just don't know.

 

[ShortRound]

We are going to do to the Rams what Clemson did to Alabama. World get ready to be shocked.

 

[Praxit]

..more pizzazz... more $$$.. ..

 

[LandryFan]

Be that as it may, this game isn't just Dak v Goff, it's the Cowboys v the Rams. And while Dak is probably higher quality at ball protection than Goff, the team stats are what I referenced. As a team, the Rams took the ball away 10 times more than the Cowboys and gave it away 2 times less. They generated 80 more yards per game and 11 or 12 more points per game.

They score points, protect the ball and do it effectively.

This is not a non-win, I think there is an opportunity for the Cowboys to win. But there are good reasons the odds are being set as they are.

I would consider that the Rams play in a weaker division (they got to play SF and AZ for four games), so that has to account for some of their good fortune (I could also counter that and say they had some tough opponents: KC, Chi, NO, LAC). But, IMO, they play in a weaker division, overall, that we do. But the bottom line is that they went 13-3 and earned a bye...that has to account for something. Where I think we may have a little edge is that our guys are on a roll, while their guys have sat for two weeks (Gurly for about a month). I'm hoping that Mo is on our side.

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

The betting line is about getting both sides of the wager to bet equal money. Betting lines are in reality not very accurate to outcomes.

Yep, it is more about perception than anything else. If I were a betting man, I would take the Cowboys and 7.5 all day.

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

We very well may.

I have to ask, how hard is it to go through life being negative about everything?

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

I just think they way you are playing in the present has more of an effect on the outcome than how you did in weeks 1-8. SInce midseason, Dallas has played just as well or better than almost every team in the league. We beat Philly, New Orleans and Philly again when it looked like a must win for the Eagles. We had the letdown against Indy for sure, but we bounced back. The Rams lost to Philly and New Orleans in that same time frame.

 

[conner01]

I don’t get how they are coming up with the Rams being favored by 7.

The matchups favor us enough that even if you really liked the Rams I would think it would be no more then 3.5.

If we show up and run all over them then they don’t have a very good chance of beating us.

Also, how can they trust Goff against our pass rush?

Probably could get anyone to bet on the rams

 

[Pass2Run]

Odds are probably, which also means maybe not.

 

[JJHLH1]

Playing on the road against a rested team in the playoffs is always a very difficult task. Historically it is tough to win those games, which explains why they are heavy underdogs. But if the Cowboys play like they are capable of they can beat any team.

Can’t wait for Saturday night!

 

[Dale]

Be that as it may, this game isn't just Dak v Goff, it's the Cowboys v the Rams. And while Dak is probably higher quality at ball protection than Goff, the team stats are what I referenced. As a team, the Rams took the ball away 10 times more than the Cowboys and gave it away 2 times less. They generated 80 more yards per game and 11 or 12 more points per game.

They score points, protect the ball and do it effectively.

This is not a non-win, I think there is an opportunity for the Cowboys to win. But there are good reasons the odds are being set as they are.

You're entirely right about all that; and if we lose, we'll undoubtedly look back at that checklist and be able to check 4 or 5 of those items as why we lost.

I do think the last point in your previous post about the stingy defense is one that shouldn't be buried. Goff has cooled off, and defense tends to take more precedence in the postseason than even the regular season. And while the Rams create turnovers, they're poor against the run -- our biggest strength offensively.

There's one blueprint for us to win this game. Dominate the ground game, control time of possession, and limit the Rams' scoring opportunities as best we can. Fail to do any of those three things, and it's difficult to imagine how we survive.

 

[Stash]

I just spoke to an odds maker and he advised me "Dallas is getting slaughtered." I'm trying to wonder "what do these people know that we don't know?"

"The Rams have yet to win a postseason game under coach Sean McVay's leadership, but based on the opening betting lines from Las Vegas that could be about to change. The opening betting line had the gave the Rams a seven-point spread with an over/under of 49 points, while SportsLine had the home team coming away with a 30-21 win."

You should have followed up by asking him why?