Odds to win each remaining game (per ESPN Analytics)

[baltcowboy]

We are dogs getting 1.5 points. It’s going to be hard to win in Buffalo as the Bulls are desperate right now and feeling confident after winning in KC.

If the weather holds up I bet the betting line will be even by game time.

 

[Bagman]

Dallas 31, Buffalo 27

 

[TwoDeep3]

The Ravens could beat the 9ers.

 

[jazzcat22]

We have as good of odds winning in Buffalo as we had beating everyones favorite Eagles last night.

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

50% chance to win at Buffalo?

too low?

 

[goshan]

Dallas
50% chance to win at Buffalo
52% chance to win at Miami
75% chance to win vs Detroit
86% chance to win at Washington

So winning out will be tough but FAR from impossible. Next 2 games are each a coin flip.

Philly
58% chance to win at Seattle
88% chance to win vs NY Giants
81% chance to win vs Arizona
87% chance to win at NY Giants

Seattle's our best bet, but not at all inconceivable that they drop one of their last 3 games. When a 85% FT shooter attempts 3 FTs in an NBA game, they probably miss at least 1 of them like half the time.

San Francisco
85% chance to win at Arizona
64% chance to win vs Baltimore
86% chance to win at Washington
73% chance to win at LA Rams

Again, not inconceivable for them to drop one. Lamar Jackson's 19-1 vs the NFC in his career.

If we survive our next 2 games, we still have a solid chance at the division and possibly the 1 seed.

One game at a time. Beat Buffalo.

Ok lets apply the math.

COWBOYS
According to ESPN odds, our chances of winning out are:
.5x.52x.75x.86=.1677
So we have a 16.8% chance of winning out.

EAGLES
According to ESPN odds, their chances of losing or tieing one game are:
1-(.58x.88x.81x.87)=1-(.3597)=.640
So Eagles have a 64.0% chance of not winning at least one of their final 4.

Chances (1) we win out and (2) Eagles tie or lose at least one game:
.1677 x .640 = .107.


Our chances of finishing 1/2 to 1 game ahead of the Eagles: 10.7%.
That's the odds boys, according to ESPN.

 

[JBS]

I honestly am more worried about going into Buffalo than the rest of our schedule. Going into Buffalo in December is TOUGH. I really hope I'm wrong. If we can manage to win the next 2 I think we are golden.

Of course that is the hardest game left

 

[cowboys5xsbs]

Niners 60% chance to beat Baltimore seems high

 

[Creeper]

Unless the Eagles are spent, which is possible, I think they win out. Seattle is a tough place to play but I don't think the Eagles will be bothered too much by the crowd noise.

NY is just such a bad team I don't think they have a chance in either game against the Eagles. Arizona will be easy for them too.

The 49ers, barring injuries to key players should have no problems winning out and getting the #1 seed.

I Think the Cowboys can win the rest of their games as well, but I don't think it will matter in the end. They would be a 14-3 wild car team. Seems unfair but it is what it is. The NFC South is a mess but Dallas should plan on visiting one of three cities.

In any case I think the Cowboys will face SF in SF again to get to the NFCC game.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

Dallas
50% chance to win at Buffalo
52% chance to win at Miami
75% chance to win vs Detroit
86% chance to win at Washington

So winning out will be tough but FAR from impossible. Next 2 games are each a coin flip.

Philly
58% chance to win at Seattle
88% chance to win vs NY Giants
81% chance to win vs Arizona
87% chance to win at NY Giants

Seattle's our best bet, but not at all inconceivable that they drop one of their last 3 games. When a 85% FT shooter attempts 3 FTs in an NBA game, they probably miss at least 1 of them like half the time.

San Francisco
85% chance to win at Arizona
64% chance to win vs Baltimore
86% chance to win at Washington
73% chance to win at LA Rams

Again, not inconceivable for them to drop one. Lamar Jackson's 19-1 vs the NFC in his career.

If we survive our next 2 games, we still have a solid chance at the division and possibly the 1 seed.

One game at a time. Beat Buffalo.

These numbers would indicate Philly has a 36% chance of winning out, Dallas has a 17% chance, and SF has a 19% chance of winning out.

This means that while unlikely, if Dallas can win their last 4, odds are they would claim the #1 seed.

In the end, winning out will probably be the only thing that matters as it is unlikely any of the other two teams will have done the same.

I believe that momentum is a real thing, and Dallas has the most in the league right now. Even in these two upcoming coin flip games against Buffalo and Miami, I think Dallas has a better chance of winning than losing simply due to the confidence with which the team is playing. Win those two, and I think there is no way you drop the games to Detroit and Washington when it will be for all of the marbles.

 

[Calvin2Tony2Emmitt2Julius]

Its not going to be cold. Upper 40's

That's a nice spring Day for Buffalo

 

[visionary]

Yeah, the odds of winning all 4 are low but one game at a time is very doable

 

[goshan]

These numbers would indicate Philly has a 36% chance of winning out, Dallas has a 17% chance, and SF has a 19% chance of winning out.

This means that while unlikely, if Dallas can win their last 4, odds are they would claim the #1 seed.

In the end, winning out will probably be the only thing that matters as it is unlikely any of the other two teams will have done the same.

I believe that momentum is a real thing, and Dallas has the most in the league right now. Even in these two upcoming coin flip games against Buffalo and Miami, I think Dallas has a better chance of winning than losing simply due to the confidence with which the team is playing. Win those two, and I think there is no way you drop the games to Detroit and Washington when it will be for all of the marbles.

Right most seem to think that the biggest barrier to us winning the division is how easy it is for the Eagles to win out. But if you buy into statistics, the biggest challenge to winning the division is BY FAR us winning out.

According to analytics, there is a 64% chance the Eagles won't win the next 4.

 

[BaybeeJay]

Dallas
50% chance to win at Buffalo
52% chance to win at Miami
75% chance to win vs Detroit
86% chance to win at Washington

So winning out will be tough but FAR from impossible. Next 2 games are each a coin flip.

Philly
58% chance to win at Seattle
88% chance to win vs NY Giants
81% chance to win vs Arizona
87% chance to win at NY Giants

Seattle's our best bet, but not at all inconceivable that they drop one of their last 3 games. When a 85% FT shooter attempts 3 FTs in an NBA game, they probably miss at least 1 of them like half the time.

San Francisco
85% chance to win at Arizona
64% chance to win vs Baltimore
86% chance to win at Washington
73% chance to win at LA Rams

Again, not inconceivable for them to drop one. Lamar Jackson's 19-1 vs the NFC in his career.

If we survive our next 2 games, we still have a solid chance at the division and possibly the 1 seed.

One game at a time. Beat Buffalo.

If a 85% FT shooter takes 3 free throws, the chances of missing one is 38%, not 50%.

 

[windjc]

Dallas
50% chance to win at Buffalo
52% chance to win at Miami
75% chance to win vs Detroit
86% chance to win at Washington

So winning out will be tough but FAR from impossible. Next 2 games are each a coin flip.

Philly
58% chance to win at Seattle
88% chance to win vs NY Giants
81% chance to win vs Arizona
87% chance to win at NY Giants

Seattle's our best bet, but not at all inconceivable that they drop one of their last 3 games. When a 85% FT shooter attempts 3 FTs in an NBA game, they probably miss at least 1 of them like half the time.

San Francisco
85% chance to win at Arizona
64% chance to win vs Baltimore
86% chance to win at Washington
73% chance to win at LA Rams

Again, not inconceivable for them to drop one. Lamar Jackson's 19-1 vs the NFC in his career.

If we survive our next 2 games, we still have a solid chance at the division and possibly the 1 seed.

One game at a time. Beat Buffalo.

So based on these stats Dallas has a 17% chance of going 4-0.
Philly has a 36% chance of going 4-0.
SF has a 34% chance of going 4-0.

So Philly has the best odds to go 4-0, but any of these 3 teams have a similar chance of ending 14-3.

 

[goshan]

If a 85% FT shooter takes 3 free throws, the chances of missing one is 38%, not 50%.

Yes. nice math Baybee Jay.
1-(.85x.85..85)=.386.
There is a 38.6% percent chance.

 

[darthseinfeld]

That's a nice spring Day for Buffalo

No spring here is usually 60's

 

[Jipper]

If we go 4-0 trying or 3-1 resting last game


We will be ready to beat anyone

 

[Nav22]

We have as good of odds winning in Buffalo as we had beating everyones favorite Eagles last night.

ESPN actually gave us a 65% chance to win last night.

 

[Cowboys1966]

50% chance to win at Buffalo?

Bills are no joke. I think we drop this one.