One oddsmaker has Jason Garrett as ninth-most likely to be first head coach fired

LACowboysFan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,164
Reaction score
7,255
In these odds you provided we’re tied with NY for 8th in NFC. How is anyone associated with this production predicting us to win a playoff game much less make the playoffs?

Well, 6 teams make the playoffs, and I guess they factor in that Dallas has Zeke, with who they won the division in 2016, plus a lot of young but veteran guys, so that it wouldn't take much for them to squeeze into the 6th or better position.

It's probably more likely that their 8th rating is based on last year, not sure it really means much at this point..
 

Jipper

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,111
Reaction score
21,756
Yah, you are the exact type of fan I was talking about earlier. A ho hum, roll with the punches, have a drink and wave a few pom poms when things are going well type fan. No disrespect. Some guys just like to chill.

As much as Philly fans are made out to be jerks, that fan base would NEVER put up with the likes of Garrett for more than a year or two. HE would be run out of town by the media and the fan base. Jerry's hand would be forced. Heck even Jerry might be run out of town.

you dont know me, you dont know how much i love this team...and you have zero right to make an assumptive comment about me like that.

You see that picture in my avatar? Thats my daughter when she was about 1 watching her first game with me...i have not missed a game since i was in hs, got married on the bye week becuase i didnt want to miss, plan vacations around the schedule and am as ravenous a fan as you will ever meet....i dont "roll with the punches" i just dont agree with the bs you guys are trying to spin around garrett.

Take your generalizations and assumptions about me elsewhere...I may be relatively new to this site bc they shutdown DC.com but i was big poster there for a decade....you dont know **** about me.
 

Aviano90

Go Seahawks!!!
Messages
16,758
Reaction score
24,485
Alright, I’ll bite...let’s look at Garrets career with the Cowboys.

2010 (5-3)- took over for Phillips half way through the season, Romo got hurt about a month later and Kitna became the starting QB

2011 (8-8)- final game of the season against the Gnats for a playoff spot we lose 31-14; Giants go on to win Super Bowl

2012 (8-8)- final game of the season against the Skins for a playoff spot we lose 28-18; Romo completed a whopping 20 for 37 and added 3 INT’s, one of which came on the final drive that would have given us the lead with little time left but led to another Skins TD to seal the victory

2013 (8-8)- final game of season against Eagles for a playoff spot we lose 24-22; Romo had back surgery the week before which made Orton the starting QB for this game

2014 (12-4)- made it to 2nd round of playoffs against GB and lose 26-21 to one of the GOAT QB’s and on a non catch that many people blame for our loss

2015 (4-12)- Weeden and Cassle take over after Romo goes out after a week 2 win; we lose every game until Romo comes back and we still have a chance at winning the division. Romo wins first game back and throws 3 INT’s the following week 2 of which were pick 6’s thus sealing our non playoff fate. IIRC Eomo reinjured himself in that game

2016 (13-3)- made it to the playoffs and lost to GB and one of the GOAT QB’s by a last second 50+ yard FG; Romo was hurt in the pre season and this was accomplished with a rookie QB and rookie RB, it also was Romo’s last year in the NFL

2017 (9-7)- not much to note besides the FO letting our entire secondary walk and Zeke’s 6 game suspension which many people blame Dak’s setback and us missing the playoffs on

Sooooooo...I’m an unapologetic JG supporter until the end of this season barring any major “incidents” and assuming we make the playoffs. You can argue all you want about his lack of playoff success but if you read above you’ll see that there were some very unfortunate circumstances that led to that and he put us in positions to get there.

Kyle Orton in week 17 to get in the playoffs and we still only lost by 2?
Romo throwing 3 picks in a game to get in the playoffs and not even completing 50% of his passes?
Losing to a SB winner to get in the playoffs his first full year as HC?
“The catch”?
Weeden and Cassle?

Gimme a break, there’s probably only one or two coaches in the league that could work around that and produce playoff success under those circumstances and even that’s questionable. JG isn’t great but I don’t think he’s nearly as bad as most of you make him seem and until recently this team was rather thin oor had major holes on one side of the ball or the other.

I can’t wait to see how many alerts have tomorrow morning. Peace out!

P.S for all those who say “he wasted Romo’s career”. Looks like fragile Tony being hurt in three of those seasons had A LOT to do with us missing the playoffs and another he was directly responsible for with a piss poor performance, making that a grand total of 4 years not including the year Dak took over.

It's a good list and I appreciate your effort in putting it together. There are always other factors that play into the success or failure of a team. There are opportunities for the team to even overcome what people perceive to be mistakes by Garrett. I say "perceive" because there really isn't right or wrong, it's essentially a preference or an opinion.

What you've done is put a good list together that shows the team still had opportunities for success with Garrett as head coach, but Garrett still had a hand in the failure of the seasons as a whole IMO. Abandoning the running game, mismanaging the clock, poor use of timeouts, poor play calling, etc contributed to the team losing games that could have been won. Granted, with good execution even a bad call can work so there is no guarantee if a different call was made there would be a different outcome.

But I have a hard time continuing to have faith in a coach that consistently leaves time for the other team after the 2 minute warning when most fans agree our defense isn't good. An example would be early in the 1st half of the 2015 Atlanta game we got 1st and goal at the 1 yard line with 46 seconds left and 2 timeouts remaining. Garrett calls a timeout then we score on 1st down leaving Atlanta 40 seconds. They proceeded to march down the field with a shot at scoring a TD but settling for the FG. There was no reason to call a timeout. Let the clock wind down. The team was in no danger of failing to be able to run 3 plays from the 1 yard line if they let the clock wind down before the 1st and goal play.

It's my preference not to have a coach on the sidelines making those decisions because it makes it harder to win games.

P.S.
Yes, Rockport, I'm complaining because I am a hater.
 
Last edited:

Diehardblues

Well-Known Member
Messages
55,611
Reaction score
36,746
Well, 6 teams make the playoffs, and I guess they factor in that Dallas has Zeke, with who they won the division in 2016, plus a lot of young but veteran guys, so that it wouldn't take much for them to squeeze into the 6th or better position.

It's probably more likely that their 8th rating is based on last year, not sure it really means much at this point..
It only means something if your predicting then to be a playoff team and not ranking them higher than 8th. Fuzzy math..
 

LACowboysFan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,164
Reaction score
7,255
Most coaches need to be given at least 3 years to turn a team around, depending on things like losing your starting quarterback or a primo running back, maybe a year or two more, if you're making progress. So I've little problem with keeping Garrett to this point. And we could have had somebody like Romeo Crennel, a total failure as a head coach. Be grateful for at least some of the time having a team that's "in the hunt" for the SB and winning seasons like 13-3, not much fun to watch your team lose week after week (think Browns or Jets fans).

But Garrett has had long enough, I suspect the Peter Principle is in full sway here, Jason is able to get a team ready for the season, with key players available, but doesn't have that extra something a Landry or Johnson had, to get the team "over the hump".

If it was up to me, even if Garrett has a pretty good record this year, like 10-6, but doesn't make the playoffs, even if he loses key players for some time, this would be his last year. It would take him going 10-6 or 9-7 with a team missing tons of starters, like Dak, Zeke, Lawrence, T. Smith, Lee, B. Jones and Lewis all for extended periods of time, to even consider keeping him.

If not for Jerry and the way he is, Garrett would be a lot higher on this list...
 

LACowboysFan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,164
Reaction score
7,255
It only means something if your predicting then to be a playoff team and not ranking them higher than 8th. Fuzzy math..

Well it's not an exact science, I would think it's like statistics, there's a margin of error to factor in.

But it's a typical off-season article, made to stimulate discussion...
 

iceberg

rock music matters
Messages
34,172
Reaction score
7,474
Opening odds to be the first NFL head coach fired (@betway):

Hue Jackson +350
Adam Gase +750
Marvin Lewis +1000
Vance Joseph +1000
Dirk Koetter +1200
Jay Gruden +1200
Todd Bowles +1600
Bill O'Brien +2000
Jason Garrett +2500
John Harbaugh +2800
Jon Gruden +2800
Pete Carroll +2800

These aren’t exactly good odds that Garrett will be the first head coach fired, but they are the ninth-most. Dallas isn’t necessarily predicted to be a powerhouse this season either, but it’s worth noting that they are in the top half of the NFL when it comes to projected odds to win the Super Bowl as well.

Odds to win Super Bowl 53:

Patriots+650
Eagles+850
Steelers+1000
Rams/Vikings +1100
Packers+1400
Saints/Texans +1800
49ers/Falcons +2000
Chargers/Jaguars +2200
Raiders+2800
Chiefs+3000
Giants/Cowboys +3300
Panthers+3500
Broncos+4000
Titans+4500
Ravens/Lions +5500

It feels like Garrett is going to need to win, at the very least, a playoff game (or two) and/or reach the NFC Championship Game for perception around him to be that he shouldn’t be fired. The road is going to be difficult considering he shares a division with the reigning world champion Philadelphia Eagles, although the Cowboys do have the second-best odds at winning the NFC East.

Jason Garrett has been given a lot of time to make his mark with the Dallas Cowboys. A season without Jason Witten and Dez Bryant will focus on his face as one of the more seasoned on the sidelines. Can he pull it off, or do these odds have a point?

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/201...y-to-be-first-head-coach-fired-dallas-cowboys
hadn't even gotten the season started and we're already firing garrett.
 

Diehardblues

Well-Known Member
Messages
55,611
Reaction score
36,746
Most coaches need to be given at least 3 years to turn a team around, depending on things like losing your starting quarterback or a primo running back, maybe a year or two more, if you're making progress. So I've little problem with keeping Garrett to this point. And we could have had somebody like Romeo Crennel, a total failure as a head coach. Be grateful for at least some of the time having a team that's "in the hunt" for the SB and winning seasons like 13-3, not much fun to watch your team lose week after week (think Browns or Jets fans).

But Garrett has had long enough, I suspect the Peter Principle is in full sway here, Jason is able to get a team ready for the season, with key players available, but doesn't have that extra something a Landry or Johnson had, to get the team "over the hump".

If it was up to me, even if Garrett has a pretty good record this year, like 10-6, but doesn't make the playoffs, even if he loses key players for some time, this would be his last year. It would take him going 10-6 or 9-7 with a team missing tons of starters, like Dak, Zeke, Lawrence, T. Smith, Lee, B. Jones and Lewis all for extended periods of time, to even consider keeping him.

If not for Jerry and the way he is, Garrett would be a lot higher on this list...
If not for Jerry, we wouldn’t have a HC like Jason to begin with.
 

Diehardblues

Well-Known Member
Messages
55,611
Reaction score
36,746
Well it's not an exact science, I would think it's like statistics, there's a margin of error to factor in.

But it's a typical off-season article, made to stimulate discussion...
The issue I take with it is how can we set these expectations when all the experts analysts and handicappers don’t have us placed higher?
 

Diehardblues

Well-Known Member
Messages
55,611
Reaction score
36,746
No one is picking us to win the division .

Who are we beating out for a WC?

Look at the 7 teams picked to finish ahead of us in conference.

I think we can contend for a WC slot but setting it as an ultimatum isn’t a realistic expectation. And then if you did happen to get in why would we be favored to beat a higher seed?
 

iceberg

rock music matters
Messages
34,172
Reaction score
7,474
Well it's not like one can't make a pretty decent case for firing him if this season is another non-success.
well it's not like we have many threads on it all the time. part of what makes it difficult around here at times is just the flogging some people do and can't ever let go of. it seems as if they make 1 more "why garret should be fired" post he would be.
 

Diehardblues

Well-Known Member
Messages
55,611
Reaction score
36,746
I think we’re still in rebuild mode. We over achieved in 2016 and now some fans feel that’s the new Bar.

We still don’t know if our OL is rebuilt to the level we had in 2016. And our receiving Corp and TE is really an unknown. Not to mention all of the concerns on defense. Is Dak the real deal ? Many questions ..

It could all come together but to expect or set expectations on that happening until further evidence isn’t a responsible evaluation and why handicappers and analysts are placing us further back in the pack.
 

LACowboysFan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,164
Reaction score
7,255
The issue I take with it is how can we set these expectations when all the experts analysts and handicappers don’t have us placed higher?

Because there are so many Cowboys lovers and haters out there, the NFL has to somehow keep the Dallas Cowboys "relevant". Even if it's not a good bet for them to win the SB or go far in the playoffs, have to keep the love/hate going!
 

Sydla

Well-Known Member
Messages
60,163
Reaction score
92,044
well it's not like we have many threads on it all the time. part of what makes it difficult around here at times is just the flogging some people do and can't ever let go of. it seems as if they make 1 more "why garret should be fired" post he would be.

What do you want to talk about?
 

phildadon86

Well-Known Member
Messages
21,868
Reaction score
31,198
Again, outside of the icing the kicker comment everything you are saying is subjective and could fall on a various coaches and even players if plays are being changed at the LOS.

I'm not going to convince you otherwise bc you are clearly against Garrett 110%...my point is that you are arguing subjective components and saying that the HC is responsible soley for all of them...thats all.
I am against the fact we have one playoff win under Garrett and his "process" in almost a decade. They arent subjective. Garrett has never been able to manage a clock. Still cant. Its literally like a fact at this point
 

LACowboysFan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,164
Reaction score
7,255
Look at the 7 teams picked to finish ahead of us in conference.

What happened last year seldom repeats 100%, what happens if Aaron Rodgers goes down for the season? We saw what happened to the Texans when Watt and Watson went down. Just the uncertainty of what the new season will bring allows just about any team to be talked about as a "contender". I even heard one TV talking head say he expects the Browns to make the playoffs this year, and who knows? After losing Romo in early 2016, and going 4-12 iin 2015, few saw the Cowboys doing as well as they did.

Half of those 7 teams could fall way down, granted it's not likely, but as I said, it's to fan the flames of discussion, which it has, not sure it's really meant to be taken as a realistic expectation of the 2018 season...
 

phildadon86

Well-Known Member
Messages
21,868
Reaction score
31,198
I already agreed with you that the icing the kicker part was on him, im not debating that but i am saying that is really the only tangible piece you are tying directly to garrett.

Everything else you are saying is nebulous and,depending on how much authority is delegated to the coaching staff, can vary depending on the team's setup. Just because the offense isnt more agressive doesnt mean that is bc of Garrett, maybe he told Linehan to make the call and trusts his coaching staff?

There are plenty of HC's out there that have completely different styles of control and they lead to varying results, both good and bad.

Back to the original point you stated that I disagree with, you don't have many tangible instances where you can say "Jason Garret cause this team to lose bc of XYZ"....and you can keep saying that the HC is responsible for the whole team all day long, which is fine but it is just a generalization.

You hate garrett, like a few other very vocal posters on here, and i get it. I don't hate garrett and i see a lot of great things going forward for this team. Its ok we disagree.
How about leaving Chaz Green on an island against atlanta this past season? Whos fault is that? You want to be HC the blame falls on YOU and you ALONE. Thats part of the job.
 

Diehardblues

Well-Known Member
Messages
55,611
Reaction score
36,746
Because there are so many Cowboys lovers and haters out there, the NFL has to somehow keep the Dallas Cowboys "relevant". Even if it's not a good bet for them to win the SB or go far in the playoffs, have to keep the love/hate going!
That doesn’t interest me. There’s always going to be eternal optimist and negative nellies. The half full vs half empty fans.

My issue is setting ultimatums on unrealistic expectations.
 

LACowboysFan1

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,164
Reaction score
7,255
I am against the fact we have one playoff win under Garrett and his "process" in almost a decade. They arent subjective. Garrett has never been able to manage a clock. Still cant. Its literally like a fact at this point

You would think if Garrett realizes that he'd turn that over to Linehan or some other assistant, even if furtively...
 
Top