Only 20% of QBs drafted in 1st have great careers

[ondaedg]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

 

[catiii]

We've seen 4.5 years of Dak. Nothing but stats-most of which were from playing when behind or vs flex defenses in garbage time. When do you call it quits on a guy? 9 years? 10? We did that with Garrett and how did that work out. He can't beat good teams.
We're doomed to 8-8 if he signs. Again.
Zeke was Jerry's 1st mistake and he needs to learn from it.

 

[Vinnie2u]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

honestly you can probably say that about every position.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

We've seen 4.5 years of Dak. Nothing but stats. When do you call it quits on a guy? 9 years? 10? We did that with Garrett and how did that work out.

I think that's kind of the pitfall of the middling QB. You draft a dud you can avenge the pick 2-3 years later. You draft someone who just earns that second contract, their with you for a decade, whatever happens.

 

[Bobhaze]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

Too many fans buy into the idea that you can just go pick “the QB tree” and get a good one. Finding a good QB is by far the hardest position to fill adequately, which is why so many teams are willing to take big chances in the draft. And why the market for QB pay is so high.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

That isn't a very surprising statistic since a the worst teams pick the top QB's and these guys start their careers in an organization that is wholly devoid of any good culture or coaching stability. I have often said that Tom Brady wouldn't be Tom Brady if he was drafted by the Cleveland Browns.

 

[Diehardblues]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

For years it was about 50% .

It’s always been a high percentage for a few contributing factors. One is teams take risk or often draft them higher than they should simply out of need.

And most of the higher drafted QB’s go to bad teams and the QB’s struggle without a strong supporting cast losing confidence early and of course face more injuries.

The stat to me which is more critical is about 80% of starting QB’s in the NFL are 1st and 2nd round picks which means that’s still the best place to find your next QB despite the amount of bust or disappointments.

I haven’t researched it in a few years but I believe that only about 50% of draft picks in the 1st and or 2nd round become starters in the league. I think it’s higher than it used to be because teams need their high picks to start sooner than they used to.

 

[JoeKing]

Every 1 in 5 QBs drafted go on to have stellar careers? I bet most of those are drafted in the first round.

 

[Nav22]

You’re wasting your breath.

We live in a country in which 40% of the population either ignores FACTS or aren’t smart enough to process the information. That’s painfully clear in 2021.

It’s the same ratio on this board.

“DURRRR LET’S GET RID OF OUR YOUNG PRO BOWL QB (SINCE THOSE GUYS GROW ON TREES) FOR A MINUSCULE CHANCE AT A QB UPGRADE IN THE DRAFT DURRRRRRRR!!!!!!”

 

[Corso]

Every 1 in 5 QBs drafted go on to have stellar careers? I bet most of those are drafted in the first round.

The OP is talking about the 1st round.

Edit: Oh wait, I do believe you have me on Ignore so I just whistled past the trees.

 

[Kingofholland]

Two first rounders you should listen for any player. If a deal similar to Stafford's came along it would be hard to pass up. I would have made that deal for Dak.

 

[RonnieT24]

For years it was about 50% .

It’s always been a high percentage for a few contributing factors. One is teams take risk or often draft them higher than they should simply out of need.

And most of the higher drafted QB’s go to bad teams and the QB’s struggle without a strong supporting cast losing confidence early and of course face more injuries.

The stat to me which is more critical is about 80% of starting QB’s in the NFL are 1st and 2nd round picks which means that’s still the best place to find your next QB despite the amount of bust or disappointments.

I haven’t researched it in a few years but I believe that only about 50% of draft picks in the 1st and or 2nd round become starters in the league. I think it’s higher than it used to be because teams need their high picks to start sooner than they used to.

Something that I think is getting missed here is that in most cases 1st and 2nd round picks are the ones in which teams have the most invested in and as such are given more rope than later round picks. That goes for every position but especially QB. Nobody wants a Josh Rosen situation on their watch. And the only reason that happened was Kingsbury. If they didn't hire Kingsbury Rosen would likely still be the QB in AZ stinking up the joint. If Mariota or Winston were drafted in the 5th round and played the way they did neither of them would have made it to a second season as a starter. Teams are just hesitant to admit their mistakes with these high dollar, high round draft picks. Why do you think Darnold is still the guy in NY? How long did JAX hang onto Bortles despite all the evidence that dude is KP? Look at the Bears futzing around with Trubiski still. Much as I hate to say it I have to give props to the WFTs and the Eagles for being willing to own their first round mistakes and move on rather than waste years trying to prove themselves right.. Same for the Rams..

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

What do the Vegas betting lines say about QBs who leave through FA? There is a point where it just doesn't make financial sense to do something. That's where, I think, this negotiation with Dak is. He's leaving IMO and he always was because that's how his agent has elected to negotiate this. He could have signed for 37 AAV, 110 fully guaranteed over 5 years. That would have been, at the time, the most lucrative contract in the entire League, in terms of actual money fully guaranteed and top 5 in the other categories, according to reports.

At some point, I think you have to just accept that if a player isn't willing to play for what you can afford, then you have to let them make their own decisions. I kinda feel like that's where we might be with Dak. It's time to final up on stuff and make decisions one way or the other.

 

[ondaedg]

Every 1 in 5 QBs drafted go on to have stellar careers? I bet most of those are drafted in the first round.

that stat comes from two different sports sites who both did their own analysis. And it was limited to first round picks. The numbers get worse after the first round.

 

[ondaedg]

What do the Vegas betting lines say about QBs who leave through FA? There is a point where it just doesn't make financial sense to do something. That's where, I think, this negotiation with Dak is. He's leaving IMO and he always was because that's how his agent has elected to negotiate this. He could have signed for 37 AAV, 110 fully guaranteed over 5 years. That would have been, at the time, the most lucrative contract in the entire League, in terms of actual money fully guaranteed and top 5 in the other categories, according to reports.

At some point, I think you have to just accept that if a player isn't willing to play for what you can afford, then you have to let them make their own decisions. I kinda feel like that's where we might be with Dak. It's time to final up on stuff and make decisions one way or the other.

it’s a fair opinion. But you can’t fault a player or his agent for wanting to get the best deal possible. Free market principles should be used no matter the type of employment.

 

[ondaedg]

We've seen 4.5 years of Dak. Nothing but stats-most of which were from playing when behind or vs flex defenses in garbage time. When do you call it quits on a guy? 9 years? 10? We did that with Garrett and how did that work out. He can't beat good teams.
We're doomed to 8-8 if he signs. Again.
Zeke was Jerry's 1st mistake and he needs to learn from it.

My question to you is when was the last time our D stepped up and played dominantly like the Bucs’ D did in the SB? Or held strong in the waning moments of a game? Dak has never had the support on both sides of the ball than the past super bowl winners of the past 10 years. Heck, Wilson had one of the top ten defenses of all time when they won. I am not saying Dak is better than any of these guys but he needs the same level of support on both sides of the ball that they got.

 

[RonnieT24]

What do the Vegas betting lines say about QBs who leave through FA? There is a point where it just doesn't make financial sense to do something. That's where, I think, this negotiation with Dak is. He's leaving IMO and he always was because that's how his agent has elected to negotiate this. He could have signed for 37 AAV, 110 fully guaranteed over 5 years. That would have been, at the time, the most lucrative contract in the entire League, in terms of actual money fully guaranteed and top 5 in the other categories, according to reports.

At some point, I think you have to just accept that if a player isn't willing to play for what you can afford, then you have to let them make their own decisions. I kinda feel like that's where we might be with Dak. It's time to final up on stuff and make decisions one way or the other.

When? I have not seen any reports that 37/year was ever offered during the negotiation last summer until the 11th hour. Before that the Cowboys were dug in at 35/year and < $100 million guaranteed. All the reports during the summer highlighted how much of a slight it was that the Cowboys were offering less guaranteed money than Goof and Wince. This narrative that they were offering him "top dollar" all along is revisionist history. And to honest since none of the numbers were actually publicized, it's all guesswork anyway. We will know the real numbers when the deal gets done. Until then people throwing out "I heard it was.." carries zero value for me. YMMV.

 

[ondaedg]

Too many fans buy into the idea that you can just go pick “the QB tree” and get a good one. Finding a good QB is by far the hardest position to fill adequately, which is why so many teams are willing to take big chances in the draft. And why the market for QB pay is so high.

Same goes for finding ace pitchers which is why the Yanks signed Garrett Cole to a fully guaranteed $324 mil contract. When you have a chance at a captain who can steer your ship you keep him. Otherwise you’re back to rolling dice.

 

[ondaedg]

honestly you can probably say that about every position.

I believe the qb position has the worst odds. I would have to check as I only dug up the data on QBs.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

it’s a fair opinion. But you can’t fault a player or his agent for wanting to get the best deal possible. Free market principles should be used no matter the type of employment.

I never suggested anything of the kind. But, you can call it for what it is. Dak and his agent have had very good deals in front of them. They have always walked away. Maybe this is a deal that can't be done and I just believe that fans should not be short sighted over all of this. If Dak and his representation want a deal that the team can't provide, then they should find a deal that allows the team to move on but fans, they need to understand that this is a two way deal. It's not all on the team to get a deal done. The player must also want to do a deal. I can't say I've seen that from the Prescott side, as yet.

What is fair market? You suggest that all deals should be done in such a way, OK, what is that? Right now, Dak is the most useless QB in the Division, should his fair market price reflect that? What you say there is impractical. You can't apply that standard because it's subjective. That doesn't fly. Every teams idea of fair market is different. This is how all of these teams got into the mess they are currently in, think that way.