Optimistic about our D

[Verdict]

Teams w/ top 5 D's understand that up the middle is the most important on D, and that you will not have a super bowl caliber D w/o a dominant DL, and you will not have a dominant DL playing 3 techs out of position.

That's right. I'm not sure why we insist the 1Tech get penetration instead or tying up a double team and collapsing the pocket in the QBs face.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Yeah, and Taco is soft. Not very reassuring is it?

What?

 

[kskboys]

Points or Yards *per drive*.

Our defense was overrated in 2014, 2016 because the strength of the ball control offense limited drives.

Absolutely. That's why you have to consider everything. A team w/ an O that controls the TOP will automatically make your D look better on paper. And on the flip side, big play team w/ a deep passing game can make your D look worse than it is.

There is simply no single stat to define a D. I do like your YDs/Pts per drive suggestion, however. Seems as if that would come close. If you do it per drive, that would take out all the ST's TD's and pick sixes. Might actually be the best way. Like it.

 

[kskboys]

That's right. I'm not sure why we insist the 1Tech get penetration instead or tying up a double team and collapsing the pocket in the QBs face.

While Ratliff did an admirable job at his height/weight ratio, he was only good for 2-3 yrs, and then the extreme pounding there started taking its toll. And don't forget, he was the NT when BALT ran for two 70+ yd runs right up the gut on consecutive drives. Can't for the life of me comprehend why no one on our staff took note of that.

 

[glimmerman]

I think we are counting on consistent pass rush from our DE to make up for the safety position. If it’s consistent then it will work. I just hope our DT is good enough from getting us gashed in the run game. It puts a lot of pressure on our LB.

 

[Batman1980]

While Ratliff did an admirable job at his height/weight ratio, he was only good for 2-3 yrs, and then the extreme pounding there started taking its toll. And don't forget, he was the NT when BALT ran for two 70+ yd runs right up the gut on consecutive drives. Can't for the life of me comprehend why no one on our staff took note of that.

They tried it with Jason Hatcher too and then he went to Washington. It's like no matter how many times they learn this lesson, it's a surprise.

 

[Alexander]

If THIS doesn't get you fired up about this D, nothing will.

 

[Batman1980]

I think Taco will do more this year than Ganja Gregory.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Absolutely. That's why you have to consider everything. A team w/ an O that controls the TOP will automatically make your D look better on paper. And on the flip side, big play team w/ a deep passing game can make your D look worse than it is.

There is simply no single stat to define a D. I do like your YDs/Pts per drive suggestion, however. Seems as if that would come close. If you do it per drive, that would take out all the ST's TD's and pick sixes. Might actually be the best way. Like it.

Yeah, big play, deep passing game on offense is tough on the defense. Though again, stats aren't everything. NE in 2007 managed pretty well playing big play ball. They just converted often enough that teams couldn't catch them.

There's alway another stat. And the more finely you slice the situation, the less data you have to wash out the other variables. Then you have to use judgment. Stats are really the starting point for applying your judgment to the situation.

(For stat geeks: The more coarse the marginal, the more data for the distribution, the more accurate the distribution. How to combine marginals at different levels of resolution, with difference confidence, besides maximum entropy?)

 

[buybuydandavis]

While Ratliff did an admirable job at his height/weight ratio, he was only good for 2-3 yrs, and then the extreme pounding there started taking its toll. And don't forget, he was the NT when BALT ran for two 70+ yd runs right up the gut on consecutive drives. Can't for the life of me comprehend why no one on our staff took note of that.

I'd put 70 yard runs on the safeties generally, and I think it was the case on that Ravens run. (That's the final Texas Stadium game, right? I only remember the second run.)

The DTs/NTs are the guys you need to prevent the grinding, gashing run drives that you just can't stop. The start of the year looks pretty grim with Irving out.

It's unclear whether we've learned the lesson from Ratliff. It doesn't look like it. Marinelli likes the smaller, quicker dline. And I think that's ok, *if* you keep churning them. But we're putting no resources into DTs, except the failed signing of Crawford, who we're keeping around as a DE now.

Maybe we learned the wrong lesson with Ratliff; that we could cheap out and still hit it out of the park.

Looking back at draft picks, the last DT drafted prior to Maliek with a 5th round or better pick is Willie Blade in 2001. And it's only a handful of DTs in that interval.

7ths - Joey Ivey, Jordan Carroll, Ken Bishop, Sean Lissemore, Josh Brent
6th - Montavius Stanleys

All the 3-4 DEs signed by Parcells were our DE/DTs for a long time. Hatcher, Canty, Spears, Ratliff. We rode their fumes for a long time. Maybe Wade got that UDFA guy left for the Commanders?

We've done pretty well with the guys we have picked up from a price/performance ratio, but it seems like DT is always where we can get the most bang for the buck with an upgrade.

 

[kskboys]

I'd put 70 yard runs on the safeties generally, and I think it was the case on that Ravens run. (That's the final Texas Stadium game, right? I only remember the second run.)

The DTs/NTs are the guys you need to prevent the grinding, gashing run drives that you just can't stop. The start of the year looks pretty grim with Irving out.

It's unclear whether we've learned the lesson from Ratliff. It doesn't look like it. Marinelli likes the smaller, quicker dline. And I think that's ok, *if* you keep churning them. But we're putting no resources into DTs, except the failed signing of Crawford, who we're keeping around as a DE now.

Maybe we learned the wrong lesson with Ratliff; that we could cheap out and still hit it out of the park.

Looking back at draft picks, the last DT drafted prior to Maliek with a 5th round or better pick is Willie Blade in 2001. And it's only a handful of DTs in that interval.

7ths - Joey Ivey, Jordan Carroll, Ken Bishop, Sean Lissemore, Josh Brent
6th - Montavius Stanleys

All the 3-4 DEs signed by Parcells were our DE/DTs for a long time. Hatcher, Canty, Spears, Ratliff. We rode their fumes for a long time. Maybe Wade got that UDFA guy left for the Commanders?

We've done pretty well with the guys we have picked up from a price/performance ratio, but it seems like DT is always where we can get the most bang for the buck with an upgrade.

There was a huge hole to run through on both of those, right up the middle. Ratliff made plays at NT, but he also got washed out due to size.

 

[Batman1980]

There was a huge hole to run through on both of those, right up the middle. Ratliff made plays at NT, but he also got washed out due to size.

It's why there's so many plays for the LBers to make, the NT is crashing through a lot. However this also means if the LBer doesn't read the play properly...well, you all saw 2017.

 

[Alexander]

7ths - Joey Ivey, Jordan Carroll, Ken Bishop, Sean Lissemore, Josh Brent
6th - Montavius Stanleys

Just. Criminal.

 

[buybuydandavis]

I think Taco will do more this year than Ganja Gregory.

Hard to see Taco getting many snaps if we keep Crawford.

Run downs Crawford or Taco, pass downs Stoner, maybe some Armstrong.

We've got 4 DEs at RDE, plus spelling Lawrence maybe 20%. 120% of a position, for 30% each if divided equally. Are we paying Crawford 6mil for 30% of the snaps? I don't see that. I'd think at least a 50% target, as base defense RDE, leaving 70% for Gregory, Taco, Armstrong.

Give Taco all the 20% snaps of Lawrence resting from base snaps.

50% pass downs for RDE left. We didn't take the risk and hassle with Gregory to have him ride the bench. He needs snaps. He's going to get them. And we'll want to give Armstrong *some* snaps.

10% for Armstrong
40% left. 30% Gregory, 10% Taco. I can't see us giving Gregory less than 30% if we actually have him back. Somebody has got to get squeezed out. That's looks like Taco in passing downs.

 

[buybuydandavis]

There was a huge hole to run through on both of those, right up the middle. Ratliff made plays at NT, but he also got washed out due to size.

Ratliff got stood up in the first play, and got good penetration in the second. But in both plays its just complete failure by the LBs and Safeties. The first one was the worst, with 3 guys falling at the feet of the RB as runs through them. The safety just bounces off high in the second one.

The second play was kind of interesting, as the run was so slowly developing that the penetration got there too early to disrupt it.

 

[Batman1980]

If we get more than 4 sacks out of Ganja this year, I will be shocked. I don't want to use him as more than a 3rd down specialist anyway. Line him up all over the formation and tell him to kill the QB.

 

[Stash]

Hard to see Taco getting many snaps if we keep Crawford.

Run downs Crawford or Taco, pass downs Stoner, maybe some Armstrong.

We've got 4 DEs at RDE, plus spelling Lawrence maybe 20%. 120% of a position, for 30% each if divided equally. Are we paying Crawford 6mil for 30% of the snaps? I don't see that. I'd think at least a 50% target, as base defense RDE, leaving 70% for Gregory, Taco, Armstrong.

Give Taco all the 20% snaps of Lawrence resting from base snaps.

50% pass downs for RDE left. We didn't take the risk and hassle with Gregory to have him ride the bench. He needs snaps. He's going to get them. And we'll want to give Armstrong *some* snaps.

10% for Armstrong
40% left. 30% Gregory, 10% Taco. I can't see us giving Gregory less than 30% if we actually have him back. Somebody has got to get squeezed out. That's looks like Taco in passing downs.

If they're allocating snaps based on salary, they're already doomed.

Crawford and his contract are already sunk costs. One initial mistake, compounded by an immediate restructure which locked them into the deal for years. But to further compound that mistake by forcing him onto the field ahead of better options would be criminal.

He's a good player and great team guy, but he's got absolutely zero business lining up at the right defensive end position. He was put out there last year because Mayowa couldn't maintain his responsibilities to stop the run, Tapper got hurt yet again, and because Taco simply wasn't ready. In 2018, there's no reason why he should be forced out there again.

 

[DFWJC]

Possibly, and finally, more talent on D than weve had in almost 8-9 years. And more you g talent than a very long time.
Its all realtive though.

Still, I agree with the OP on being optimistic...especially as the season progresses.

 

[kskboys]

Ratliff got stood up in the first play, and got good penetration in the second. But in both plays its just complete failure by the LBs and Safeties. The first one was the worst, with 3 guys falling at the feet of the RB as runs through them. The safety just bounces off high in the second one.

The second play was kind of interesting, as the run was so slowly developing that the penetration got there too early to disrupt it.

Of course. However, the holes were there to begin w/. It is much harder to wash out a prototypical NT.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Of course. However, the holes were there to begin w/. It is much harder to wash out a prototypical NT.

I'm midway between you and Marinelli. I prefer one gap over two gap, but I'd still spend some real resource to carry one prototypical NT for short yardage and clear run defense situations.

One gap makes for higher variance in run plays - it gives you a better chance of getting a negative play and putting the offense in long yardage. That stops the offense from completing a drive. And it gives you a better pass rush should they pass. I like it better from 20 to 20.

But in short yardage and pure run, I don't think you need to go high variance to get a stop. Two gap can make more sense there. One NT who can hold his ground makes a world of difference. On that final drive at least, when they're trying to run out the clock, you put that guy in the game.