Outliers, YPC, and the Cowboys running game

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You also have to take away the 3rd and 1s, 4th and 1s and 1yd TDs.

If Murray had 7 40yd+ that is at least 280 yds on 7 carries. Of course it would bring his average down by a lot. That is 15% of his yards on 2% of his carries.

You would have to take away the top 7 runs of all the average backs as well.

I dunno about that. Big runs happen quite often in short yardage situations relative to other downs and distances. Situational is a good approach in general to give a detailed view but adjusting for outliers is a different matter.

 

[Corso]

It's what you do in all statistical analysis. If you want to bias out outliers then bias them all out and not just the ones that help further your argument. When you take away someone's best runs and they are still league average that tells me they are better than average. Context is also important. How do the league average guys fare when you take out their best runs? If all it does is shift the graph then it doesn't really posit anything.

Thank you for more detail into my overall Idea. I expected nothing less.

 

[AzorAhai]

I usually discard the idea that teams try to tackle better RBs any harder than they try to tackle bad ones. They're defending formations and tendencies more than anything. For the really great players, they're probably keying on them more because it's a safer assumption he's going to get his no matter what, but play action for the Dallas Cowboys is going to be effective no matter who we've got in the lineup if we're committed to rushing the ball often.
I do agree that those tough conversions on the ground are demoralizing. Not sure that having the other guys demoralized more of the time necessarily correlates with winning more. When a better QB can then come in and erase the demoralizing points with big plays of his own, it doesn't matter all that much.

Short yardage and goal line, though, where you can extend drives or get points regardless of what the defense does, that matters. Which is why it also shows up in the victory correlation data.

My hope for this season is having a "true" balanced approach on offense. I would like to see more PA on 1st downs if they want to load the box. If they want to play a 7 in the box, run it down their throats. If they want to load up regardless of the down, kill them with the passing game. It was incredibly frustrating to see them run 75% of the time on 1st downs. The defenses knew it, the announcers knew it and the fans knew it. Teams would consistently load the box on 1st downs and I believe it was hard for the offense to get in a rythm early in games because of that. It's what they had to do to keep the defense protected, but hopefully thats not necessary this season and they can play to the weakness(edit) of each individual defensive alignment.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

We're really more counting the outliers here than we are removing them. Measuring the volatility of the statistic and how that might affect our play calling or productivity rather than trying to diminish anything Murray did. Those plays are gone, an they're big plays that win games no matter what. If we don't replace them, we're less effective. But if we're talking about the effectiveness of the 400 RB carries last season overall, the overwhelming bulk of those plays just weren't all that interesting statistically. What mattered a lot more was that we were committed to calling them.

Even then you are only counting outliers on one end of the spectrum. A lower frequency doesn't necessarily make the data non-predictive either. If all backs have said outliers then it is reasonable to expect them in the future. He might only have 5 next year but he will still have them and they are still impactful on the field.

For example, if we can expect a higher rate of big plays from Randle then maybe he ends up with 12 or more 15+ yard carries or something like that. When you start pushing a big play every game then the contribution should not be discounted.

 

[Nightman]

Talking about outliers

In 2012 Adrian Peterson had 27 carries of 20+ and 9 carries of 40+
In 2014 Demarco Murray had 15 carries of 20+ and 3 carries of 40+
In 2014 Matt Forte had 1 carry of 20+ and 0 carries of 40+

 

[dstovall5]

Good stuff, looking at that heat map makes me want Lamar Miller that much more. It just reaffirms that he's an outstanding RB, and not to mention he's young.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Talking about outliers

In 2012 Adrian Peterson had 27 carries of 20+ and 9 carries of 40+
In 2014 Demarco Murray had 15 carries of 20+ and 3 carries of 40+
In 2014 Matt Forte had 1 carry of 20+ and 0 carries of 40+

In 2015 a fat guy walked 20+ yards for a cookie 9 times and walked 40+ yards for a cookie twice.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

My hope for this season is having a "true" balanced approach on offense. I would like to see more PA on 1st downs if they want to load the box. If they want to play a 7 in the box, run it down their throats. If they want to load up regardless of the down, kill them with the passing game. It was incredibly frustrating to see them run 75% of the time on 1st downs. The defenses knew it, the announcers knew it and the fans knew it. Teams would consistently load the box on 1st downs and I believe it was hard for the offense to get in a rythm early in games because of that. It's what they had to do to keep the defense protected, but hopefully thats not necessary this season and they can play to the weakness(edit) of each individual defensive alignment.

Agreed. The number of carries given Murray hurt the overall productivity of the offense IMO.

I think there were points left on the field.

 

[Nightman]

In 2015 a fat guy walked 20+ yards for a cookie 9 times and walked 40+ yards for a cookie twice.

OK

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Agreed. The number of carries given Murray hurt the overall productivity of the offense IMO.

I think there points left on the field.

The pass protection wasn't good enough. Pass more particularly early in the year and Romo is being carted off again. Some of that is on Romo but it still is what it is. Teams ran stunts and twists at us relentlessly.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

The pass protection wasn't good enough. Pass more particularly early in the year and Romo is being carted off again. Some of that is on Romo but it still is what it is. Teams ran stunts and twists at us relentlessly.

The pass protection could have been sharper no doubt.

But it wasn't nearly the worst in the league and the patterns being run by the Cowboys weren't designed for quick reads (which were talked about greatly on here). Romo was also at fault... he was holding the ball way too long.

Needless to say some of the pass protection issues could have been solved.

In addition there were so many run-stunts by the defense and 8-man fronts on first down screamed for more play-action.

 

[AzorAhai]

The pass protection wasn't good enough. Pass more particularly early in the year and Romo is being carted off again. Some of that is on Romo but it still is what it is. Teams ran stunts and twists at us relentlessly.

I'm hoping that improves this season. Frederick and Martin are still relatively new to the league and imo it takes longer to be a good pass blocking lineman than a good run blocking lineman. As the awareness, pre snap recognition and comfort with their teammates improve I think that aspect should as well. Romo still needs to get the ball out earlier in some instances as well, but we've seen it long enough now where I don't think we see much improvement there.

 

[ThreeandOut]

To further cloud the issue, are those 7 longer runs more the result of outstanding ability of the RB or is it great blocking at all levels, from the OL, FB, TE, and WR's? I would say more often than not it's the later that creates those long runs.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The pass protection could have been sharper no doubt.

But it wasn't nearly the worst in the league and the patterns being run by the Cowboys weren't designed for quick reads (which were talked about greatly on here). Romo was also at fault... he was holding the ball way too long.

Needless to say some of the pass protection issues could have been solved.

In addition there were so many run-stunts by the defense and 8-man fronts on first down screamed for more play-action.

IT wasn't worst in the league sure but that is within the context of them running the ball. More passes would have worsened their efficiency.

I also don't think they executed play action very well. I am just thinking of Pryor not being fooled in game 1 and picking Romo off. That is something that might improve with one OC instead of 2 different guys running 2 different schemes like the Linehan/Callahan dynamic.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'm hoping that improves this season. Frederick and Martin are still relatively new to the league and imo it takes longer to be a good pass blocking lineman than a good run blocking lineman. As the awareness, pre snap recognition and comfort with their teammates improve I think that aspect should as well. Romo still needs to get the ball out earlier in some instances as well, but we've seen it long enough now where I don't think we see much improvement there.

They improved markedly by the end of the year. Their youth certainly bodes well for that trend to continue.

 

[Corso]

To further cloud the issue, are those 7 longer runs more the result of outstanding ability of the RB or is it great blocking at all levels, from the OL, FB, TE, and WR's? I would say more often than not it's the later that creates those long runs.

Too many variables to give a definitive answer.

 

[Crown Royal]

IT wasn't worst in the league sure but that is within the context of them running the ball. More passes would have worsened their efficiency.

I also don't think they executed play action very well. I am just thinking of Pryor not being fooled in game 1 and picking Romo off. That is something that might improve with one OC instead of 2 different guys running 2 different schemes like the Linehan/Callahan dynamic.

Anything that happened game one should be thrown out

I agree on pass protection but overall I thought we were deadly on play action at least for intermediate. We don't have a true burner for the deep stuff on play action. Williams has speed but not enough to be 20 yards downfield 2.5 seconds after the play action.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It's what you do in all statistical analysis. If you want to bias out outliers then bias them all out and not just the ones that help further your argument. When you take away someone's best runs and they are still league average that tells me they are better than average. Context is also important. How do the league average guys fare when you take out their best runs? If all it does is shift the graph then it doesn't really posit anything.

This entire exercise is futile because it doesn't account for different personnel (runner, line, qb, wrs, tes, etc), schemes, down and distances, runs by quarter, home vs. away and a number of other factors I could argue is relevant.

What we know is that on the offensive side of the ball it would be nearly impossible to argue that Murray didn't have better personnel around him top to bottom. I bet that made his job easier. No?

 

[Knotamus]

So 7 runs set him apart. He had 5 fumbles.

Sorry to correct.. But he had six.. Throw in the playoff GB fumble.. That's actually seven.

 

[Galian Beast]

I agree with you that YPC is a misleading stat, but in order to consider a league average you would have to remove the big plays for each running back that you are comparing and try and create a real base line.

I think what matters generally is yards per carry on 1st and 10 and success rate depending on down and distance.