Over Valuing Analytics in Football

[eromeopolk]

I will post my thoughts on the new Head Coach after his press conference and staff is announced (or majority is announced).

However, I have been hearing the buzz word of Analytics in football and I laugh because it is basically statistics which has been in football since Engineering major Tom Landry was coaching. When you hear a coach talk about getting a analytics group or using analytics like it is some new thing...BEWARE.

First, on offense you can only do one of 2 things on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down which is run or pass. You have three choices on 4th down which is punt, run or pass. So the probabilities are not numerous as in baseball. Lets get real, this is a sport that uses X, O, arrows and lines for communication in a playbook.

Tom Landry took analytics out of defense with the flex which was read, then react, and flow your linebackers to the football. Jimmy Johnson a psychology major was attack and have the offense react to you. That is pretty much all you can do on defense.

However, because there are timeouts, 15 minute quarters, play clocks, and 2 minute warnings, time management is important. But that is not analytics, that is time management.

So, on offense 4th and 1, on the opponents 30 yard line, with 45 seconds left, down by 4 with 1 time out with Ezekiel Elliott at RB and Dak Prescott at QB what will you do? Run, Pass, or kick a field goal? Jason Garrett probably kicks a field goal. Jimmy Johnson probably goes for it on 4th down. Instincts give the information for statistics/analytics. So if you want to know the answer.... it is below....

 

[nyc-cowboy]

Cmon man, talk about oversimplification.

 

[NorthTexan95]

I don't think you really understand what analytics means.

 

[Stash]

I will post my thoughts on the new Head Coach after his press conference and staff is announced (or majority is announced).

However, I have been hearing the buzz word of Analytics in football and I laugh because it is basically statistics which has been in football since Engineering major Tom Landry was coaching. When you hear a coach talk about getting a analytics group or using analytics like it is some new thing...BEWARE.

First, on offense you can only do one of 2 things on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down which is run or pass. You have three choices on 4th down which is punt, run or pass. So the probabilities are not numerous as in baseball. Lets get real, this is a sport that uses X, O, arrows and lines for communication in a playbook.

Tom Landry took analytics out of defense with the flex which was read, then react, and flow your linebackers to the football. Jimmy Johnson a psychology major was attack and have the offense react to you. That is pretty much all you can do on defense.

However, because there are timeouts, 15 minute quarters, play clocks, and 2 minute warnings, time management is important. But that is not analytics, that is time management.

So, on offense 4th and 1, on the opponents 30 yard line, with 45 seconds left, down by 4 with 1 time out with Ezekiel Elliott at RB and Dak Prescott at QB what will you do? Run, Pass, or kick a field goal? Jason Garrett probably kicks a field goal. Jimmy Johnson probably goes for it on 4th down. Instincts give the information for statistics/analytics. So if you want to know the answer.... it is below....

Dumb.

 

[Future]

Undervaluing them is how you get a coach like Jason Garrett.

 

[Vtwin]

I agree completely. "Analytics" has a place but it can water down a specific situation to a one size fits all scenario that ignores the factors specific to that situation.

Coaching/Management got crucified on the Zone for saying they don't pay attention to analytics when referring to that specific fourth down play near the goal line. They absolutely shouldn't have paid attention to a boiled down stew of many many similiar but not equal situations to decide what to do in this moment, with these players, in this stadium, against this defense, in this weather etc etc etc.

Instinct born of experience matters a great deal.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I will post my thoughts on the new Head Coach after his press conference and staff is announced (or majority is announced).

However, I have been hearing the buzz word of Analytics in football and I laugh because it is basically statistics which has been in football since Engineering major Tom Landry was coaching. When you hear a coach talk about getting a analytics group or using analytics like it is some new thing...BEWARE.

First, on offense you can only do one of 2 things on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down which is run or pass. You have three choices on 4th down which is punt, run or pass. So the probabilities are not numerous as in baseball. Lets get real, this is a sport that uses X, O, arrows and lines for communication in a playbook.

Tom Landry took analytics out of defense with the flex which was read, then react, and flow your linebackers to the football. Jimmy Johnson a psychology major was attack and have the offense react to you. That is pretty much all you can do on defense.

However, because there are timeouts, 15 minute quarters, play clocks, and 2 minute warnings, time management is important. But that is not analytics, that is time management.

So, on offense 4th and 1, on the opponents 30 yard line, with 45 seconds left, down by 4 with 1 time out with Ezekiel Elliott at RB and Dak Prescott at QB what will you do? Run, Pass, or kick a field goal? Jason Garrett probably kicks a field goal. Jimmy Johnson probably goes for it on 4th down. Instincts give the information for statistics/analytics. So if you want to know the answer.... it is below....

Stopped reading at "it's' basically statistics."

You don't know what you're talking about.

 

[Flamma]

So, on offense 4th and 1, on the opponents 30 yard line, with 45 seconds left, down by 4 with 1 time out with Ezekiel Elliott at RB and Dak Prescott at QB what will you do? Run, Pass, or kick a field goal? Jason Garrett probably kicks a field goal.

Is there 45 seconds left in the game or in the half? Because if you kick a FG with 45 seconds left in the game down by 4 you need a new profession.

 

[Ranching]

Undervaluing them is how you get a coach like Jason Garrett.

I hope he breaks down his own offense and defense too. That'll help get a look at the opponents gameplan. Not many teams do that, but it really helps.

 

[ESisback]

A large portion of the fanbase will clamor for a cause, say analytics. It’s vital, gotta have it, yada yada yada. But once we get it....uh oh, we’re in trouble, and here come the long posts detailing the many pitfalls. Nothing’s perfect, there’s no guarantees, but I’ve been reading about a good, experienced coach who already has a ring, who spent the past year with several other football guys in a barn studying how to be a better coach.

I’m not dissing the OP at all, just saying maybe we’re overthinking this a little.

 

[Jake]

I will post my thoughts on the new Head Coach after his press conference and staff is announced (or majority is announced).

However, I have been hearing the buzz word of Analytics in football and I laugh because it is basically statistics which has been in football since Engineering major Tom Landry was coaching. When you hear a coach talk about getting a analytics group or using analytics like it is some new thing...BEWARE.

There's a wide gap between overvaluing analytics and not looking at them at all. I'm trusting we'll land somewhere in the middle as opposed to "we don't look at them".

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

I don't think you really understand what analytics means.

 

[cowboyec]

Im very intrigued by what McCarthy had to say about it to Peter King...especially his 2 "futures" coaches...hope that gets fleshed out a lil more at his presser.

 

[Plankton]

Well, considering the above, I guess that means that all advanced scouting and quality control units can be eliminated.

Since analytics doesn't mean anything.

 

[Tabascocat]

Analytics is the baked potato to the steak.....they are to be used in conjunction.

 

[cowboyec]

I would think anything that you could use as a coach that could help to give you some advantage would be worth looking into,in my opinion.
if it can point you in the right direction...why the hell not.

but i don't make my checks coachin'....its sling'n a mop that pays my bills.

 

[cowboyec]

Well, considering the above, I guess that means that all advanced scouting and quality control units can be eliminated.

Since analytics doesn't mean anything.

its all a tool to be used.
Garrett was dumb for not trying.

 

[aikemirv]

I agree completely. "Analytics" has a place but it can water down a specific situation to a one size fits all scenario that ignores the factors specific to that situation.

Coaching/Management got crucified on the Zone for saying they don't pay attention to analytics when referring to that specific fourth down play near the goal line. They absolutely shouldn't have paid attention to a boiled down stew of many many similiar but not equal situations to decide what to do in this moment, with these players, in this stadium, against this defense, in this weather etc etc etc.

Instinct born of experience matters a great deal.

Yep, I don't want analytics to tell my coach what to run on 4th and 1 with the game on the line. I want him to be able to have enough feel for the game to know what is going to work based on his teams performance that day!

 

[ESisback]

Analytics is the baked potato to the steak.....they are to be used in conjunction.

Good analogy!

 

[Reverend Conehead]

Analytics aren't the end all/be all of football, but they can help to find tendencies that can help exploit an opponent's weakness. They're also helpful in injury prevention. They're not a substitute for knowing the game well or for players making plays.