Over Valuing Analytics in Football

[Bachman05]

This is example of where analytics come into play , I got this form another forum that I frequent and share to provide some insight on how it can be applied.

Week 10, 2018 GB @ SEA. GB is 4-4-1 and McCarthy is firmly on the hot seat, coaching for his job.

4:20 and 1 TO remaining in the 4th, GB trailed 24-27. Following an incomplete pass on 3rd and 2 he decides to punt from his own 33.

By deciding to punt he is requiring his defense to get a stop to have a chance to win the game.

Had he decided to go for it and failed, a defensive stop would have still given his team a chance to win with a TD on the final possession. The punt cost GB 9.8% win probability (31% vs 21%)

 

[pansophy]

Well, considering the above, I guess that means that all advanced scouting and quality control units can be eliminated.

Since analytics doesn't mean anything.

McCarthy started in quality control, and based on his some of the comments he made about the application of analytics it sounds like he really understands what analytics can do for you.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

OP aside, I do think their value is overrated. They seem to be the current hot phrase, with some people acting like they're the difference between a good coach and a bad coach. Sure, you'd rather give yourself marginal edges when possible. But proper preparation during the week, talent evaluation (on your team, not talking about the draft or FA here) and deployment, motivation... these are far more important than in game analytics IMO.

 

[texbumthelife]

They should have stuck with leather helmet without chin straps too!

 

[aikemirv]

This is example of where analytics come into play , I got this form another forum that I frequent and share to provide some insight on how it can be applied.

Week 10, 2018 GB @ SEA. GB is 4-4-1 and McCarthy is firmly on the hot seat, coaching for his job.

4:20 and 1 TO remaining in the 4th, GB trailed 24-27. Following an incomplete pass on 3rd and 2 he decides to punt from his own 33.

By deciding to punt he is requiring his defense to get a stop to have a chance to win the game.

Had he decided to go for it and failed, a defensive stop would have still given his team a chance to win with a TD on the final possession. The punt cost GB 9.8% win probability (31% vs 21%)

Would love to see the amount of data they have on that specific situation.

1) It would be very rare for a team to go for it on their own 33 with 4 minutes left
2) ton of data for a team kicking it in that situation

- so the win percentage of kicking it really can't be compared to the win percentage of going for it because the sample size is not large enough on going for it on 4th and 2 to make the comparison.

That's my take on that scenario.

 

[MojaveJT]

Using whatever method available to get an advantage no matter how slight gets a thumbs up from me. To totally brush it aside like Garrett is asinine. With that said, it needs to be a balance and don’t like over analyzing paralyze you from making common sense decisions.

 

[Blackspider214]

You purposely over simplified analytics to try and make a point and failed. Miserably. This is not what analytics is at all.

 

[Vintage]

But I knows what my eyez seeez derp de derp

 

[texbumthelife]

To me, it's not really that he's using analytics, it's that he's WILLING to try something new, to push boundaries a little bit. Yes, I want a coach that already knows his ****, but so one willing to learn, change, and adapt with the game.

 

[eromeopolk]

Cmon man, talk about oversimplification.

K. I. S. S. it.

 

[Bachman05]

Would love to see the amount of data they have on that specific situation.

1) It would be very rare for a team to go for it on their own 33 with 4 minutes left
2) ton of data for a team kicking it in that situation

- so the win percentage of kicking it really can't be compared to the win percentage of going for it because the sample size is not large enough on going for it on 4th and 2 to make the comparison.

That's my take on that scenario.

I'm not a math guy but a I think it would include what the percentages it is to convert on 4th and 2 regardless of field position,

Just posted that example to show how it can be applied to show slight edges that can be used during a game to give you a higher win probability , as op's example was terrible.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

But I knows what my eyez seeez derp de derp

i WatCh tHe gAmEz.

 

[tm1119]

For some reason it seems to be ingrained into some people to fear/dislike new things they don’t understand..analytics is no different. Crazy to me how many people are unwilling to adapt the way they think, complacency doesn’t lead to success.

Thankfully McCarthy doesn’t fall into this category.

 

[nyc-cowboy]

K. I. S. S. it.

Cute...........still oversimplified.

 

[eromeopolk]

To all, my point is that Analytics is not new. Since the Landry days, play calling tendencies have been tracked in the NFL for an edge. Now that you have it on an IPad does not make it new. The coach saying he is big on analytics should have been using statistics before it was called analytics.

How much analytics did it take for Jimmy Johnson in the 1992 NFC Championship game to say "I want to win" to Norv Turner after the 49ers got within 10 points? What analytics was used for Norv to call the most often used go to pass play in the Cowboys playbook to gain a 1st down. Or, Where was the analytics after being down at halftime in the Super Bowl to the Bills did it take for Jimmy and Norv to run the football with the NFL MVP RB they neglected in the 1st half?

Football is more about putting your playmakers in position to make plays and the instincts to call those plays. That is not analytics. That is coaching. Since 1994, Cowboys have not had leadership at Head Coach and a real Head Coach (except when Jerry had to get his stadium and hired Bill Parcells).

Analytics does not give a Head Coach leadership, and game instincts to win.

 

[pansophy]

OP aside, I do think their value is overrated. They seem to be the current hot phrase, with some people acting like they're the difference between a good coach and a bad coach. Sure, you'd rather give yourself marginal edges when possible. But proper preparation during the week, talent evaluation (on your team, not talking about the draft or FA here) and deployment, motivation... these are far more important than in game analytics IMO.

In the salary cap era in which talent is roughly equal week to week, searching for marginal edges is the only way to find advantage. Analytics help find those advantages.

 

[Vintage]

i WatCh tHe gAmEz.

I dun’t need proof. I feelz it.

 

[aikemirv]

I'm not a math guy but a I think it would include what the percentages it is to convert on 4th and 2 regardless of field position,

Just posted that example to show how it can be applied to show slight edges that can be used during a game to give you a higher win probability , as op's example was terrible.

Understand. I just really don't care much for these probability of winning %. Analytics in general to me would carry very little weight in my game decisions. I would be much more cognizant of specific game flow than any analytic tendancy that was produced over the course of many different situations, different game conditions and different teams.
I, as a coach need to have a feel for what my team and the opponent is doing that day.

If I am 7-10 on third down for the day or 2-10 on 3rd down for the day, that is going to have a huge effect on my decision making over some analytic of winning % based on going for it or not. Someone was clamoring for us using analytics in the NE game in horrid weather conditions. Those conditions makes the analytics pretty much useless!

 

[nyc-cowboy]

This is example of where analytics come into play , I got this form another forum that I frequent and share to provide some insight on how it can be applied.

Week 10, 2018 GB @ SEA. GB is 4-4-1 and McCarthy is firmly on the hot seat, coaching for his job.

4:20 and 1 TO remaining in the 4th, GB trailed 24-27. Following an incomplete pass on 3rd and 2 he decides to punt from his own 33.

By deciding to punt he is requiring his defense to get a stop to have a chance to win the game.

Had he decided to go for it and failed, a defensive stop would have still given his team a chance to win with a TD on the final possession. The punt cost GB 9.8% win probability (31% vs 21%)

The thing about this situation is, if you fail to make the first down are you giving up the ball at your own 33 to a Tom Brady in his prime or to a Mark Sanchez.

 

[Verdict]

Analytics must be based on common sense. It’s not like baseball where player x only bats .015 against pitcher y. It’s not a 1 on 1 kind of thing.

You can’t just consider how successful teams in general are in a given situation, you have to ask yourself how likely is MY TEAM in THIS situation likely to fare against THIS opponent TODAY.

Moreover what is the game situation? It it based in large part on feel. Analytics are but one part of the information action available to the coach.