Passing Better and Defending The Pass (Fallacy Revisited)

[Verdict]

Just for the record the Vikings passed better and defended the pass better than we did tonight, and they lost. Looks like that theory isn't holding up very well against these Dallas Cowboys.

 

[JBS]

Just for the record the Vikings passed better and defended the pass better than we did tonight, and they lost. Looks like that theory isn't holding up very well against these Dallas Cowboys.

How many other times has this theory failed this season?

 

[links18]

They also fumbled a punt, failed to convert a tying 2 pt conversion and kicked three FGs instead of getting TDs. That will get you beat most of the time.

 

[jrumann59]

Just for the record the Vikings passed better and defended the pass better than we did tonight, and they lost. Looks like that theory isn't holding up very well against these Dallas Cowboys.

Yeah but Vikings did not lose because of their defense. If Minny's Offense was just NFL avg this would have been a loss.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Dak has a higher QB Rating (108.3 vs. 91.6).

Either way, it's about probability...not certainty.

I can come up to you and say I'm going to flip a coin 5 times in a row and it's going to land on heads each time.

Can that happen?

Sure.

But the odds are about 3%.

So the odds certainly 'apply.' It's just that the odds are low.





YR

 

[Verdict]

How many other times has this theory failed this season?

More than once with these Cowboys. It also happened against the Commanders 7 days ago.

 

[Verdict]

Dak has a higher QB Rating (108.3 vs. 91.6).

Either way, it's about probability...not certainty.

I can come up to you and say I'm going to flip a coin 5 times in a row and it's going to land on heads each time.

Can that happen?

Sure.

But the odds are about 3%.

So the odds certainly 'apply.' It's just that the odds are low.





YR

Its not just about the odds. This offense and the running game are blowing that theory out of the water.

 

[links18]

Yeah but Vikings did not lose because of their defense. If Minny's Offense was just NFL avg this would have been a loss.

So you mean like the Giants?

 

[JJHLH1]

Percy has a devastating stat on the Dak NFL record thread:

"Prescott 108.3
Bradford 91.6

So far this season, QB with ratings over 100 are 71-9 vs QB with ratings under 100."

That goes a long way towards explaining the Cowboys 11-1 record. This is the second game in a row where Dak's running was the difference in the game. His runs were backbreakers against a defense that played exceptionally well.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Its not just about the odds. This offense and the running game are blowing that theory out of the water.

Dallas won the passing game efficiency battle today.

And they have won it decidingly for the year.

I don't know what is being 'blown out of the water.'




YR

 

[Verdict]

Dallas won the passing game efficiency battle today.

And they have won it decidingly for the year.

I don't know what is being 'blown out of the water.'




YR

You are missing my point. I think you know what I am getting at. LOL. You are purposely overlooking it.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

You are missing my point. I think you know what I am getting at. LOL. You are purposely overlooking it.

I honestly don't understand your point.

We passed better than they passed. And we won.




YR

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Dak has a higher QB Rating (108.3 vs. 91.6).

Either way, it's about probability...not certainty.

I can come up to you and say I'm going to flip a coin 5 times in a row and it's going to land on heads each time.

Can that happen?

Sure.

But the odds are about 3%.

So the odds certainly 'apply.' It's just that the odds are low.





YR

Bradford's rating was that high?

Bleh.

 

[Idgit]

You are missing my point. I think you know what I am getting at. LOL. You are purposely overlooking it.

I have to admit I'm confused by your point, too. It looks like you were pointing out a fallacy, but that the data actually supported the passing efficiency differential again. Like it has pretty much the entire season this season.

 

[AdamJT13]

Just for the record the Vikings passed better and defended the pass better than we did tonight, and they lost. Looks like that theory isn't holding up very well against these Dallas Cowboys.

Apparently, you don't understand what "passing better" and "defending the pass better" means.

We averaged more adjusted net yards per pass play (the main stat behind the "theory"). We also averaged more yards per pass play and had a higher passer rating. All of those have a very high correlation to winning, and we won.

That "theory" is as true as it ever was. It's been true in 11 of our 12 games this season and in 48 of our past 50 games overall.

 

[CATCH17]

Yeah but Vikings did not lose because of their defense. If Minny's Offense was just NFL avg this would have been a loss.

Luckily it's salary cap football and if you want a great defense than you most likely have to sacrifice other positions and for them it looks like it's their entire offense.

 

[CATCH17]

Apparently, you don't understand what "passing better" and "defending the pass better" means.

We averaged more adjusted net yards per pass play (the main stat behind the "theory"). We also averaged more yards per pass play and had a higher passer rating. All of those have a very high correlation to winning, and we won.

That "theory" is as true as it ever was. It's been true in 11 of our 12 games this season and in 48 of our past 50 games overall.

Note to self.. Never call out AdamJT13.

 

[Brooksey]

Just for the record the Vikings passed better and defended the pass better than we did tonight, and they lost. Looks like that theory isn't holding up very well against these Dallas Cowboys.

The stat rats don't believe in passing yards just differential and points per drive. Did you notice how they left out the defending the pass part because it didn't fit their narrative?
We have been successful Running the ball 50% of the plays, staying balanced very similar to how we ran our offense in 2014.
Idgit and the pass happy crowd who like to sling it 75% are eating crow... again.

 

[visionary]

Just for the record the Vikings passed better and defended the pass better than we did tonight, and they lost. Looks like that theory isn't holding up very well against these Dallas Cowboys.

Errrrr @Idgit please respond with the usual drivel
Thx in advance

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Bradford's rating was that high?

Bleh.

Would have been lower if Scandrick didn't have a hands to the face that took away Hitchens' INT.




YR