I’m not sure the risk factor on whether or not you can find a good QB in the draft is as much of a factor as it used to be. QBs are busting far less often and seeing NFL success earlier in their careers. This is because the college and NFL games aren’t as different as they used to be...the NFL is using college offensive concepts more and more. There is less of a transition. The NFL rules favoring offenses more and more is another reason.
Just some food for thought
Blaine Gabbaert, RGlll, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, Paxton Lynch, Teddy Bridgewater, Brandon Weeden ...
Then there are others that aren’t total busts, but are never more than average. Tannehill, Mariota, Bortles, Bradford ...
The odds of getting someone in these 2 groups is easily higher than getting a Mahomes or Luck, and that’s especially true if a team doesn’t have a draft pick near the top of the first round.