The majority of rookie QB’s bust, including high in the first round, so it’s understandable he’d want an established QB. The Houston job is a much larger, much riskier undertaking even if the ceiling is a lot higher and more rewarding if things work out. Total rebuilds are extremely difficult and often require as much luck as wisdom.
I see reasons for taking all three jobs. Russel Wilson could be revived in the right program and if Payton can do that, it’s a strong team. Murray is also talented if erratic and of questionable temperament but if Payton can command his respect and turn him into a more consistent QB then AZ has a solid team with resources to improve. Houston is a blank slate which gives you the most influence to shape the team as you see fit… but it’s going to be the hardest of the three tasks to complete.