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POSTED 12:16 p.m. EDT, October 30, 2007
ROMO MISSED A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY?
Our initial reaction to the news of the Tony Romo deal was that, if Jerry Jones has waited this long to get the thing done, why didn't he wait until after the season? Romo's leverage was already extremely high -- it could have gone down a lot farther than it would have increased if, for example, his performance would diminish down the stretch of the 2007 season, or if he would suffer an injury that renders him unavailable deep into the 2008 offseason.
But one league source who is not an agent and who has no connection to the Cowboys tells us that Jones was wise to lock Romo in at $11 million per year and $30 million guaranteed.
The source also said that, from the agents' perspective, it's the worst deal he has ever seen.
"The dynamics were set up to change the market," the source said, pointing out that Jones has been desperate to find a franchise quarterback ever since Troy Aikman was nudged out of town. Taking all of the circumstances into account, the source believes that Romo's leverage was second only to Peyton Manning's after the 2003 season, when his crippling franchise tender forced the Colts into a corner.
In the end, however, the source regards the Romo deal as essentially equivalent to the contract signed by Rams quarterback Marc Bulger at the outset of training camp. But while the contracts are comparable, are the players equivalent?
Said the source: "Any team would give up Bulger and a first-round draft pick for Romo."
The market moving forward, as the source sees it, is that mediocre quarterbacks should get $30 million guaranteed on contracts averaging $11 million or $12 million per year. Elite quarterbacks should get $14 million to $15 million per year, with $40 million to $45 million guaranteed.
Thus, it just might have been a great move for the Cowboys and a bad move for Romo.
As the source explains it, Romo might have been influenced by the reality that he entered the league as an undrafted player, uncertain of his status and unsure as to when or if a real paycheck would ever come. Players like that tend to be less inclined to aim as high as they can -- and quicker to take a deal that, even if it doesn't reflect the market, represents more money than the player ever could have plausibly dreamed to earn.
Still, folks around the league who heard that the Romo deal might be coming were bracing for the same kind of shock waves that were felt when defensive end Dwight Freeney parlayed a handful of sacks in 2006 into $12 million per year and $30 million guaranteed. The only shock that arose from the Romo deal is that it does not compare favorably to deals done before the 2006 spike in the salary cap (i.e., Manning and Carson Palmer).
ROMO MISSED A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY?
Our initial reaction to the news of the Tony Romo deal was that, if Jerry Jones has waited this long to get the thing done, why didn't he wait until after the season? Romo's leverage was already extremely high -- it could have gone down a lot farther than it would have increased if, for example, his performance would diminish down the stretch of the 2007 season, or if he would suffer an injury that renders him unavailable deep into the 2008 offseason.
But one league source who is not an agent and who has no connection to the Cowboys tells us that Jones was wise to lock Romo in at $11 million per year and $30 million guaranteed.
The source also said that, from the agents' perspective, it's the worst deal he has ever seen.
"The dynamics were set up to change the market," the source said, pointing out that Jones has been desperate to find a franchise quarterback ever since Troy Aikman was nudged out of town. Taking all of the circumstances into account, the source believes that Romo's leverage was second only to Peyton Manning's after the 2003 season, when his crippling franchise tender forced the Colts into a corner.
In the end, however, the source regards the Romo deal as essentially equivalent to the contract signed by Rams quarterback Marc Bulger at the outset of training camp. But while the contracts are comparable, are the players equivalent?
Said the source: "Any team would give up Bulger and a first-round draft pick for Romo."
The market moving forward, as the source sees it, is that mediocre quarterbacks should get $30 million guaranteed on contracts averaging $11 million or $12 million per year. Elite quarterbacks should get $14 million to $15 million per year, with $40 million to $45 million guaranteed.
Thus, it just might have been a great move for the Cowboys and a bad move for Romo.
As the source explains it, Romo might have been influenced by the reality that he entered the league as an undrafted player, uncertain of his status and unsure as to when or if a real paycheck would ever come. Players like that tend to be less inclined to aim as high as they can -- and quicker to take a deal that, even if it doesn't reflect the market, represents more money than the player ever could have plausibly dreamed to earn.
Still, folks around the league who heard that the Romo deal might be coming were bracing for the same kind of shock waves that were felt when defensive end Dwight Freeney parlayed a handful of sacks in 2006 into $12 million per year and $30 million guaranteed. The only shock that arose from the Romo deal is that it does not compare favorably to deals done before the 2006 spike in the salary cap (i.e., Manning and Carson Palmer).
