PFT: Will the receiver market go the way of the running back market?

[TheMarathonContinues]

This is a great question.

I’ve always been reluctant to sink a ton of cap space on a WR. Especially when you look at all the SB winners, or even conference champions of the last decade or more who win without highly paid WRs.

Here are some recent SB winners and conf champs and their WR group:

• 2016 pats- SB champs- WRs were Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Chris Hogan (Brady as QB)
• 2017 eagles- SB champs-WRs were Alston Jefffey, Tory Smith and Nelson Agholor (with Nick Foles as QB)
• 2018 rams- NFC champs- WRs- Tavon Austin, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods (Jared Goff as QB)
• 2018 pats- SB champs - WRS Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan (Brady as QB)
• 2023 chiefs - SB champs- WR- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney (Mahomes as QB)

Yes, obviously Brady and Mahomes make any receiver look good but Jared Goff? Nick Foles?

My bigger point is I think it is way harder to find great OL than good enough WRs. Which is why I lean toward thinking WRs are not as important as the market currently treats them.

Yeah but you’re missing some other teams in there. Rams won a SB on the back of Kupp and Stafford. Hurts made it with Devonta and AJ Brown, 49ers with Deebo and Aiyuk…..these teams don’t have much in common but one thing they do have is they don’t ignore the trenches. Especially defensive line.

 

[fivetwos]

Lamb’s realistic trade value is a 1st and a 3rd. You could only HOPE to replace him with the 1st, so you’re gaining a third rounder. Look at the recent third round history of this team and tell me it’s worth doing.

The reason to move a guy like Lamb would be if you’re entering full rebuild mode and don’t expect to win for a while, and/or he doesn’t fit the scheme of your brand new HC that you’re very committed to.

He is a marketable #88, which makes trading him about as moot as Jerry selling the team.

These guys do not wheel and deal to try to get the roster the staff/scheme requires as other GMs do. They aren’t capable. They just collect players.

 

[kskboys]

I disagree. As long as Chris Jones and Mahomes are there I can’t say they wouldn’t have won. If they made the decision to get rid of Kelce and a few other guys instead of Tyreek would they have struggled? Hard to say.

I’m looking at their salary now from last season and the money is not being spent on defense it’s being spent on offense….

CEH accounted for 3 million.
MVS accounted for 10 million
Butker 5 million
Kelce 14 million
Reid 12 million

Their big contributors on defense were Sneed and Trainquill who don’t cost much. Chris Jones as well who accounts for 20 plus million.

So if the question is would I rather have Kelce, MVS and Reid over Reek? I wouldn’t. I’d rather have Reek and draft a tight end to replace Kelce.

And KC was able to sign Chris Jones only because the let Tyreek walk. Simple stuff, dude.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

And KC was able to sign Chris Jones only because the let Tyreek walk. Simple stuff, dude.

It’s not “simple”. I literally just broke down how they would’ve been able to keep Chris Jones. They are spending 23 million on Reid, CEH and MVS.

It’s also worth noting they tried to re-sign Reek….



Despite his frustration over his lack of targets, Hill said he expressed his desire with stay with coach Andy Reid if he and the Chiefs could agree on a contract. While the two sides saw eye-to-eye on Hill's potential annual salary, Hill was unimpressed with the amount of guaranteed money the Chiefs offered.

So no….its not simple.

 

[conner01]

Maybe the NFL should just get rid of the salary cap? Let the market decide.

The prevailing theory is contracts would sky rocket and smaller markets would not be competitive. However, the salary cap just seems to create an environment where teams, or the NFL product are lessened.

Instead of talking football we all become capologists not rooting for our QB because he costs too much or wanting to get rid of our best WR, because ya know we have a cap to consider.

Remove it and maybe economic principles kick in and the NFL adjusts To solid business management techniques.

You have a better chance of winning the lottery every week for a year

 

[conner01]

The cap will not go away. But what they need to do is to put a cap on certain positions. I know that seems like it like it is putting a premium on those players.

Like the case with Micah, his 5th year option gave him more as they paid him more as a DE over a LB. So should those positions be capped the same.
CB vs. S, who should get more.

So group them. DB's, DL, OL, WR, TE, RB, QB. But where to draw that line. In the corporate world there are pay scale structures. So why not in the NFL.
Just a thought, but it would be very hard to make it work.

That’s the perfect solution. And if explained right to the players I think you could sell them on it. It would increase salaries for other positions so in the end more players would benefit. But agents would try their best to kill the idea

 

[Chasing6]

It is a fair question and you can argue unless you are extending Dak, why invest $30M+ into CeeDee? Would a trade ( 2 first-round picks ) bring better value? It is exactly the position the Packers took when Adams was traded after Rogers left.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profo...-market-go-the-way-of-the-running-back-market

Will receiver market go the way of the running back market?​

• By
• Mike Florio

Published May 26, 2024 12:12 PM

Multiple receivers have gotten paid this offseason. Multiple others are still waiting.

Last month, 35 more were drafted — including nine in the first 34 selections.

As more and more competent receivers enter the NFL via the low-cost rookie wage scale, it’s fair to wonder if/when more and more teams will decline to pay a receiver and look for a replacement instead in the draft.

Two years ago, three teams did it. The Titans traded A.J. Brown, the Packers traded receiver Davante Adams, the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill. (Tennessee used the first-round pick it got for Brown on his replacement, Treylon Burks. The Packers opted for quantity, drafting Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Samari Toure. And the Chiefs went with a low-cost committee approach that has helped deliver every Lombardi Trophy awarded since Hill was traded.)

Now, with Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Bengals receiver Tee Higgins, and Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb still clamoring for new contracts (all have stayed away from OTAs), the question becomes whether they’ll eventually end up with other teams, too

It still comes down to supply and demand. This years draft was deep at WR. If it keeps going like that, then it will come back down, but already hearing next years WR group is weak.

 

[75boyz]

A good reference point for this season would be:
Will Malik Nabers make Daniel Jones look any better?

Daniel Jones supporters claim he has never truly had an elite WR1 to support his performance.

But then again, when the Giants agreed to pay Jones at 40mil per he was supposed to have the ability to "raise/make those around him better."

So, 2 ways of looking at it I guess.

jmo

 

[kskboys]

Yeah but you’re missing some other teams in there. Rams won a SB on the back of Kupp and Stafford. Hurts made it with Devonta and AJ Brown, 49ers with Deebo and Aiyuk…..these teams don’t have much in common but one thing they do have is they don’t ignore the trenches. Especially defensive line.

Absolutely. And KC just traded WR play for strong trench play. 2 consecutive super bowls followed. Reek just was not as important as you're thinking.

 

[kskboys]

It’s not “simple”. I literally just broke down how they would’ve been able to keep Chris Jones. They are spending 23 million on Reid, CEH and MVS.

It’s also worth noting they tried to re-sign Reek….



Despite his frustration over his lack of targets, Hill said he expressed his desire with stay with coach Andy Reid if he and the Chiefs could agree on a contract. While the two sides saw eye-to-eye on Hill's potential annual salary, Hill was unimpressed with the amount of guaranteed money the Chiefs offered.

So no….its not simple.

KC had a top 5 D. It wasn't just Chris Jones. You keep Reek and Jones, and you don't win super bowls. Yes, it really is that simple.

Of course. Reek is a freak and beyond good. It's not the player I'm arguing over, it's the position. KC won the super bowl because of a deep and talented DLine and the best QB in the game.

Overvaluing the WR position is for fans. When GMs make that mistake, it leads to early playoff exits.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Absolutely. And KC just traded WR play for strong trench play. 2 consecutive super bowls followed. Reek just was not as important as you're thinking.

They’ve proven they didn’t need him because they’ve won without him. That I can’t argue. I just don’t think they would’ve lost if they had him is my point.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

KC had a top 5 D. It wasn't just Chris Jones. You keep Reek and Jones, and you don't win super bowls. Yes, it really is that simple.

Of course. Reek is a freak and beyond good. It's not the player I'm arguing over, it's the position. KC won the super bowl because of a deep and talented DLine and the best QB in the game.

Overvaluing the WR position is for fans. When GMs make that mistake, it leads to early playoff exits.

The defense was top 5 but my point is they didn’t let him walk in favor of the defense. Sneed and Trainquill were dirt cheap. They let Reek go and it allowed them to keep guys like Kelce.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Here are some recent SB winners and conf champs and their WR group:

• 2017 eagles- SB champs-WRs were Alston Jefffey, Tory Smith and Nelson Agholor (with Nick Foles as QB)
• 2018 rams- NFC champs- WRs- Tavon Austin, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods (Jared Goff as QB)

Those teams were in super bowls?????????

 

[Bobhaze]

Lamb’s realistic trade value is a 1st and a 3rd. You could only HOPE to replace him with the 1st, so you’re gaining a third rounder. Look at the recent third round history of this team and tell me it’s worth doing.

The reason to move a guy like Lamb would be if you’re entering full rebuild mode and don’t expect to win for a while, and/or he doesn’t fit the scheme of your brand new HC that you’re very committed to.

He is a marketable #88, which makes trading him about as moot as Jerry selling the team.

These guys do not wheel and deal to try to get the roster the staff/scheme requires as other GMs do. They aren’t capable. They just collect players.

Sadly, you are spot on here.

Having a GM whose job depends on winning a championship would probably consider making a move like that. Having a GM who also happens to be the owner who sees the monetary bottom line as “winning” is in no hurry to mess with his “winning formula”. That formula is about money and relevance more than winning championships.

Watching all three other Dallas teams reach at least a conference championship- the Rangers won a World Series and the Mavs and Stars may also do that this year as well - makes watching the Cowboys “Wash, rinse, repeat” modes of running this thing so disheartening.

I watch a GM like the Mavs Nico Harrison who has been uber-aggressive before and during the season and compare it to the JJ/SJ approach, with no accountability for another year of playoff failure, and it just becomes discouraging.

It hit me hard the other day when I read that in the first 30 years of the Super Bowl era, the Cowboys played in 16 of 30 conference championship games and in 8 of the first 30 SBs. In the last 28 years, zero of both. SMH.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

This is a great question.

I’ve always been reluctant to sink a ton of cap space on a WR. Especially when you look at all the SB winners, or even conference champions of the last decade or more who win without highly paid WRs.

Here are some recent SB winners and conf champs and their WR group:

• 2016 pats- SB champs- WRs were Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Chris Hogan (Brady as QB)
• 2017 eagles- SB champs-WRs were Alston Jefffey, Tory Smith and Nelson Agholor (with Nick Foles as QB)
• 2018 rams- NFC champs- WRs- Tavon Austin, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods (Jared Goff as QB)
• 2018 pats- SB champs - WRS Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan (Brady as QB)
• 2023 chiefs - SB champs- WR- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney (Mahomes as QB)

Yes, obviously Brady and Mahomes make any receiver look good but Jared Goff? Nick Foles?

My bigger point is I think it is way harder to find great OL than good enough WRs. Which is why I lean toward thinking WRs are not as important as the market currently treats them.

Keep in mind also that MM developed some pretty decent mid-tier WRs as a Packer HC ( Jordy Nelson, Cobbs ).

 

[KingCorcoran]

That’s the perfect solution. And if explained right to the players I think you could sell them on it. It would increase salaries for other positions so in the end more players would benefit. But agents would try their best to kill the idea

If it were a good idea for the players why doesn’t the NFLPA suggest it?

 

[StarOfGlory]

This is a great question.

I’ve always been reluctant to sink a ton of cap space on a WR. Especially when you look at all the SB winners, or even conference champions of the last decade or more who win without highly paid WRs.

Here are some recent SB winners and conf champs and their WR group:

• 2016 pats- SB champs- WRs were Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Chris Hogan (Brady as QB)
• 2017 eagles- SB champs-WRs were Alston Jefffey, Tory Smith and Nelson Agholor (with Nick Foles as QB)
• 2018 rams- NFC champs- WRs- Tavon Austin, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods (Jared Goff as QB)
• 2018 pats- SB champs - WRS Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan (Brady as QB)
• 2023 chiefs - SB champs- WR- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney (Mahomes as QB)

Yes, obviously Brady and Mahomes make any receiver look good but Jared Goff? Nick Foles?

My bigger point is I think it is way harder to find great OL than good enough WRs. Which is why I lean toward thinking WRs are not as important as the market currently treats them.

There is no bigger example of that than that Eagles SB victory in 2017. Their line had two, maybe three future HoFer's keeping Foles in one piece, making him one of the most unlikely QB's to win a Super Bowl. Another good example is the Chief's loss to Tampa. IIRC, both of their starting OT's didn't play due to injury, and the Tampa D owned the LoS. In contrast, their healthy o-line kept the Eagles defense at bay in the second half of the 2022 SB and allowed them to come back and win that game.

 

[conner01]

If it were a good idea for the players why doesn’t the NFLPA suggest it?

Because agents love the system like it is. It would hurt the very top end players but it would help the other 85 pct because they could negotiate a stronger spend level for teams. The spend level is pretty lax. You must avg 95% of cap spent over 4 years. You could probably negotiate that down to over 2-3 years
But selling players on capping a position with the pressure from agents isn’t easy even if more players would benefit

 

[kskboys]

They’ve proven they didn’t need him because they’ve won without him. That I can’t argue. I just don’t think they would’ve lost if they had him is my point.

Depends on who they have to let walk to pay him his 30 mil. If they sign him instead of Chris Jones, no, they don't win 2 in a row.

 

[kskboys]

The defense was top 5 but my point is they didn’t let him walk in favor of the defense. Sneed and Trainquill were dirt cheap. They let Reek go and it allowed them to keep guys like Kelce.

And Chris Jones and NNadi and their OL. All much more important than any WR.