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One for the 'Bird'
Dismissing underdogs without much thought can be dangerous
By Mike Wilkening (mwilkening@pfwmedia.com)
May 6, 2009
I did not have Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby. I am not happy about this for obvious wallet-related reasons, but most of all, I am upset because I dismissed the horse out of hand. I focused on what the horse couldn’t do instead of what he might have been capable of doing — he was bred to enjoy running a mile-and-a-quarter, he was going to get a good trip because of his fearless, ground-saving jockey, and the field he was facing was not great by any stretch — and I never gave him a chance. Not a chance to win, but a chance, and there is a difference.
It got me to thinking: Do I do the same thing when handicapping the NFL? Am I too quick to look at a team’s flaws and not its strengths? It is something for me to think about as I start preparing in earnest for the upcoming season. I don't want to, and don't expect to, embrace every underdog, but I should at least contemplate a scenario in which the long shot can exceed expectations.
With that in mind, I took another look at the predictions I made for our NFL Preview '09 magazine, which will be in stores later this month. My goal was to take a closer look at the eight teams I picked to finish last — Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Jacksonville, Oakland, Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Washington — and to find their three most redeeming qualities.
Here’s what I came up with:
Buffalo
1. The addition of WR Terrell Owens makes the offense more explosive.
2. The defense was a respectable 14th in yards allowed per game last season.
3. The Bills are excellent in the kicking game.
Cleveland
1. The Browns have yet to name a starting quarterback, but they have two passers (Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn) who have flashed potential the last two seasons and a third quarterback (Brett Ratliff) whom new head coach Eric Mangini liked enough to acquire on Draft Day.
2. The defensive line, LB corps and secondary all appear strengthened.
3. The schedule looks much more manageable than it did a season ago.
Lions WR Calvin Johnson
Detroit
1. The Lions bolstered their leaky defense in free agency and in the draft.
2. Calvin Johnson could rack up 100 catches and 1,500 yards and I would not raise an eyebrow.
3. If nothing else, the Lions play three of the teams on this list and draw Cleveland and Washington at home.
Jacksonville
1. The offense can string long drives together.
2. The offensive line, which fell apart last season, should be better.
3. The core of this team helped the Jaguars to the divisional round two years ago, and if last season was simply an aberration, Jacksonville won’t be such a smart last-place pick.
Oakland
1. The Raiders run the ball very well and have several capable backs.
2. CB Nnamdi Asomugha can shut down one side of the field, which helps the pass rush considerably.
3. More improvement from QB JaMarcus Russell and head coach Tom Cable could vault the Raiders forward; note how well the team finished last season.
Tampa Bay
1. Its brightest stars on offense, WR Antonio Bryant and TE Kellen Winslow, should not lack for motivation, with Bryant playing for a multiyear deal and Winslow, known for his competitive nature, trying to put a forgettable final season in Cleveland behind him.
2. The defense did not finish last season particularly strong, but it has some intriguing up-and-coming players, most notably DE Gaines Adams, MLB Barrett Ruud, CB Aqib Talib and FS Tanard Jackson.
3. Like the Browns, the Buccaneers have no clear starting quarterback, but there is likely a serviceable starter in the mix somewhere.
San Francisco
1. Rookie WR Michael Crabtree could help the passing game quickly and immensely.
2. The defense ranked 11th in average gain per play last season; seven of the 10 teams ahead of the Niners in this category made the playoffs.
3. It is easy to be skeptical of the Niners’ NFC West competitors, considering that the Cardinals took the division with only nine wins, the Seahawks are coming off a terrible season and the Rams are rebuilding.
Washington
1. This does not look like a last-place team on paper, especially on defense.
2. The Commanders run the ball well and do not make many mistakes.
3. The Commanders draw the Lions, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Rams in the first six weeks of the season and could get off to another quick start. Now, if only they can sustain that momentum …
I am not saying I love any of these teams’ chances, but I at least have thought about how they might prove me wrong. I still doubt that would have helped me this past Saturday, but you never know. And you will surely never know if you handicap with the wave of a hand.
http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Columns/2009/wilky050609.htm
By Mike Wilkening (mwilkening@pfwmedia.com)
May 6, 2009
I did not have Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby. I am not happy about this for obvious wallet-related reasons, but most of all, I am upset because I dismissed the horse out of hand. I focused on what the horse couldn’t do instead of what he might have been capable of doing — he was bred to enjoy running a mile-and-a-quarter, he was going to get a good trip because of his fearless, ground-saving jockey, and the field he was facing was not great by any stretch — and I never gave him a chance. Not a chance to win, but a chance, and there is a difference.
It got me to thinking: Do I do the same thing when handicapping the NFL? Am I too quick to look at a team’s flaws and not its strengths? It is something for me to think about as I start preparing in earnest for the upcoming season. I don't want to, and don't expect to, embrace every underdog, but I should at least contemplate a scenario in which the long shot can exceed expectations.
With that in mind, I took another look at the predictions I made for our NFL Preview '09 magazine, which will be in stores later this month. My goal was to take a closer look at the eight teams I picked to finish last — Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Jacksonville, Oakland, Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Washington — and to find their three most redeeming qualities.
Here’s what I came up with:
Buffalo
1. The addition of WR Terrell Owens makes the offense more explosive.
2. The defense was a respectable 14th in yards allowed per game last season.
3. The Bills are excellent in the kicking game.
Cleveland
1. The Browns have yet to name a starting quarterback, but they have two passers (Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn) who have flashed potential the last two seasons and a third quarterback (Brett Ratliff) whom new head coach Eric Mangini liked enough to acquire on Draft Day.
2. The defensive line, LB corps and secondary all appear strengthened.
3. The schedule looks much more manageable than it did a season ago.
Lions WR Calvin Johnson
Detroit
1. The Lions bolstered their leaky defense in free agency and in the draft.
2. Calvin Johnson could rack up 100 catches and 1,500 yards and I would not raise an eyebrow.
3. If nothing else, the Lions play three of the teams on this list and draw Cleveland and Washington at home.
Jacksonville
1. The offense can string long drives together.
2. The offensive line, which fell apart last season, should be better.
3. The core of this team helped the Jaguars to the divisional round two years ago, and if last season was simply an aberration, Jacksonville won’t be such a smart last-place pick.
Oakland
1. The Raiders run the ball very well and have several capable backs.
2. CB Nnamdi Asomugha can shut down one side of the field, which helps the pass rush considerably.
3. More improvement from QB JaMarcus Russell and head coach Tom Cable could vault the Raiders forward; note how well the team finished last season.
Tampa Bay
1. Its brightest stars on offense, WR Antonio Bryant and TE Kellen Winslow, should not lack for motivation, with Bryant playing for a multiyear deal and Winslow, known for his competitive nature, trying to put a forgettable final season in Cleveland behind him.
2. The defense did not finish last season particularly strong, but it has some intriguing up-and-coming players, most notably DE Gaines Adams, MLB Barrett Ruud, CB Aqib Talib and FS Tanard Jackson.
3. Like the Browns, the Buccaneers have no clear starting quarterback, but there is likely a serviceable starter in the mix somewhere.
San Francisco
1. Rookie WR Michael Crabtree could help the passing game quickly and immensely.
2. The defense ranked 11th in average gain per play last season; seven of the 10 teams ahead of the Niners in this category made the playoffs.
3. It is easy to be skeptical of the Niners’ NFC West competitors, considering that the Cardinals took the division with only nine wins, the Seahawks are coming off a terrible season and the Rams are rebuilding.
Washington
1. This does not look like a last-place team on paper, especially on defense.
2. The Commanders run the ball well and do not make many mistakes.
3. The Commanders draw the Lions, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Rams in the first six weeks of the season and could get off to another quick start. Now, if only they can sustain that momentum …
I am not saying I love any of these teams’ chances, but I at least have thought about how they might prove me wrong. I still doubt that would have helped me this past Saturday, but you never know. And you will surely never know if you handicap with the wave of a hand.
http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Columns/2009/wilky050609.htm
