20 percent is actually higher then I thought. What’s the success rate for rounds 2-4?
Well, some have it around 14 percent on the third day, but I rounded it up to 20. I think our percentage has fallen somewhere in that range based on past research I've done. The first round is generally around 60-50 percent depending on the year and it falls from there.
Again, every year is its own animal, so it's hard to say how one year will compare with the next, but past studies I've ready covering multiple years usually wield those percentages.
And of course, it depends on how you define success. Some define it as receiving a second contract and some as producing starters. Those expecting a lot of third-day starters are doomed to be disappointed. We've gotten two starters out of our past 15 third-day picks (Ferguson and Bland from the same year) ... not counting this year. I don't know if the other 13 qualify as even contributors (Matt Waletzko, Damon Clark, John Ridgeway, Devin Harper, Viliami Fehoko, Asim Richards, Eric Scott, Deuce Vaughn, Jalen Brooks, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy, Nathan Thomas and Justin Rogers), but the jury is still out on some of them.
If we take out the fourth-rounders from that group, we'd be 1 of 13 right now as far as finding starters go over those three drafts.
We've done better in the third (Cooper Beebe, Marist Liufau, DeMarvion Overshown, Jalen Tolbert, Osa Odighizuwa, Chauncey Golston, Nahshon Wright). Maybe no real stars, with Overshown and Odig being the closest so far and Beebe looking like he'll join them, but several contributors. Wright is the only complete flameout from those four drafts.
The fourth has been a little more hit and miss (for every Tony Pollard, we get a Reggie Robinson or Tyler Biadasz we get a Josh Ball, Ferguson after Jabril Cox or before Fehoko). It's almost like we either find a starter or a complete waste of a roster space. I mean, even going back to 2016 when we drafted Dak in the fourth, we also drafted Charles Tapper. The next year, it was Ryan Switzer (fail) followed by Dorance Armstrong and Dalton Schultz (both successes). Just looking at those years, we had a 50 percent success rate, which is good for that round despite the spectacular failures.