I started another thread about this, but I'll post my OP here to consolidate the discussion:
This is a thread ONLY for people who want to discuss the current playoff picture. If you think its "too early" then don't comment in this thread please.
For those of us who are entertained by the current playoff picture, lets look at the current reality.
Now, I am one of the believers that 9 times out of 10 - 10-6 is good enough to get into the playoffs, especially in this league of massive parity. And unless you are the unfortunate NE Patriots, 11-5 is a shoe in.
30-40% of the time 9-7 is good enough too.
But a little over half way through this year, the playoff picture seems to be murkier than most. Two teams - Arizona @ 7-1 and Detroit @ 7-2 have made things a bit scarier for everyone else's playoff picture.
Lets look at the teams in contention:
Arizona: 7-1. Won big games so far, but have a brutal in-division schedule remaining. However, unless they absolutely implode, I can't imagine Arizona finishing worse than 4-4 or 11-5. 5-3 is also possible, and with a 12-4 record Arizona might have the inside track for the #1 seed.
New Orleans: 4-5. Despite the loss today, NO still has the inside track to win the NFC South. NFC South's futility is making life more difficult for every other team in the NFC.
Detroit: 7-2. Detriot just keeps winning. With a stingy defense, Detriot is always in their games. They do have games remaining @ ARI, @NE, @GB and 2 divisional games remaining with Chicago mean that Detroit could finish 3-4 and 10-6. But even in a scenario where Detroit starts to fade (they've been known to do this in the past), right now Detriot has the tiebreaker over Dallas 5-1 vs. 4-3 in conference play. So there is a mountain to climb here for Dallas if both of these teams finished bidding for a wild card spot.
Green Bay: 5-3. Maybe its Aaron Rodgers, but I think Green Bay is a formidable team and should be good enough to get to the playoffs. Again, this is a team Dallas must out perform in the final 7 games if the Cowboys can't win the NFC East. Green Bay does not have the hardest schedule remaining with 5 of their last 8 games at home. Green Bay's toughest games are home against PHI, NE and Detroit. They do have a road game against Buffalo, but thats not the hardest challenge. Green Bay should go at least 4-3 and finish 10-6. They could go 5-2 (11-5) and make a run at their division, especially if Detroit fades at all. Although at first glance the Tiebreakers here seem to look good for Dallas - 4-3 vs 3-3 conference record + 2-0 vs 0-2 common opponents - if Green Bay finished their last 7 games with a better record than Dallas, there is a good chance their conference record will be better too. Again, not great for Dallas.
San Francisco: 5-4. Big win today against NO. 4-5 would have probably been too much to overcome for this team. But with this big win today, SF is in much better shape. SF has 4 really hard games left, 2 against Seattle, 1 each against Arizona and San Diego. However, 3 of these games are @ home. The question for San Francisco is can they finish 4-2 (10-6). 3-3 probably doesn't win the division or get them a wild card, although anything is still possible. Again, the biggest problem for Dallas is that San Francisco owns the tiebreaker. Dallas must finish with a better record than SF if both are fighting for a wild card.
Seattle: 5-3. The defending superbowl champions are currently outside looking in, with a brutal remaining schedule - 2 games against SF, 2 games against Ari, @ KC, @ Phi, and a game at home against the improving St. Louis Rams. However, if somehow Seattle can navigate that gauntlet and finish 5-3 (10-6) in the second half of the season, they might actually HELP Dallas in the wild card picture. How? Well, in a 3 way wild card tie between Seattle, San Francisco and Dallas, if Seattle wins the tiebreaker with SF, they lose it with Dallas. Which means, Seattle could eliminate SF for Dallas in this scenario - because in a 3 way, the two division teams are compared and 1 is eliminated before the non-division team is considered. Food for thought.
Philadelphia: 6-2. This is all about the NFC obviously. Philadelphia is Dallas' only real divisional competition. And how this plays out will have a lot to do with Mark Sanchez, of all people. Philadelphia does not have an easy schedule -- @ GB, vs. Seattle, and 3 out of 4 divisional games on the road. Obviously the 2 against Dallas are the most important. If Philly beats Dallas twice, they will almost be guaranteed the division.
Dallas: 7-3. One scenario is simple. One is much more difficult. Scenario #1 - win the division. With 2 games against Philadelphia, 2 wins would be almost guarantee a division crown. However, only 2 of 6 remaining games are @ home. While that would normally seem brutal, Dallas has been better on the road than home, and with a real run game, the Cowboy's game travels. Other tough games include at home against Indy and games @ NYG and @Chi. Scenario #2 - a wild card bid become much tougher. First Dallas needs to finish 3-3 and 10-6 to have a realistic bid at a wild card (barring collapse by 2 or more teams listed above). However, even at 10-6, Dallas will have a hard time winning the tiebreaker vs. Detroit, GB and/or SF. Things looks better against Seattle of course, but there will only be 2 wild cards to be shared between these potential 5 teams.
So what is my final opinion after week 10?
1. Well, Seattle is currently losing against NYG. A loss today would make things very bleak for Seattle, giving their remaining schedule. However, thats actually a BAD thing for Dallas (explained above).
2. I normally believe that 10-6 gets you in and 9-7 about half the time. Normally I ignore the annual proclamations from fans that say "10-6 won't get you in, you have to be 11-5." However, this season, I do believe 10-6 is at best a 50-50% proposition for Dallas, if the Cowboys don't win the division. Almost always, teams collapse towards the end of the season and this could certainly happen to Philly, Detroit, SF, GB, and/or Seattle. However, given the shape of the remaining schedules, the odds of this happening are less than normal in my opinion.
3. I'll state it now so that no one has to clutter this thread as captain obvious: Dallas wins their important games, they don't have anything to worry about.
But it will be an exciting finish, imo.
