Pollard vs McCaffery

[BleedSilverandBlue]

This year there has been quite a bit of (admittedly, well deserved) media hype surrounding Christian McCaffrey since he joined the 49ers and based off of the talk around here he is without a single near-peer in the entire league. In full disclosure, I have not watched a lot of 49ers football this season outside of the wildcard and a few other games here and there (the LA, AZ, and NO games come to mind), so I decided to do some investigation into just how dominant CMC has been this season and compare him to our star tailback. The results may surprise you.

Pollard - 1007 yds rushing/371 yds rec/ 12 TDs on 248 total rushing attempts + receiving tgts
McCaffrey - 1139 yds rushing/ 741 yds rec/ 13 TDs on 352 total rushing attempts + receiving tgts

PFF Grade:
Pollard - 89.5
McCaffrey - 88.9

Yards:
Pollard - 1007 rush, 371 rec
McCaffrey - 1139 rush, 741 rec

Yards Per Carry:
Pollard - 5.2
McCaffrey - 4.7

Yards Per Reception:
Pollard - 9.5
McCaffrey - 8.7

Touchdowns;
Pollard - 12
McCaffrey - 13

These numbers may suggest that perhaps there is a player in the league that can hold a candle to CMC in terms of production. I will admit his ability as a pure receiver is second to none, but as a total player at the RB position, Pollard compares strikingly well.

If you were to extrapolate Pollard's production to reflect the numbers you would expect if he had a workload matching CMC (352 total rushing attempts + receiving tgts), you would get this:

1268 yds rushing - 723 yds receiving - 17 total TDs

Pollard would outclass or nearly match CMC in every statistical category with what most of us would consider to be an inferior supporting cast on the offensive line and at play caller.

I'm not here to say one is definitively better than the other, they are probably the two best running backs in the NFL and both have different standout traits, but to say that CMC has no match is ridiculous. The match resides right here in Dallas.

 

[diamonddelts]

Pollard is a better rb than mccaffrey in terms of rushing only. I'd give my cmac the edge in the receiving game

 

[DanA]

I genuinely think Pollard is worthy of the franchise tag next season, I just think McCaffrey is worth a bit more. And the big difference is that you don't have to extrapolate it, he's done it for six years (whenever healthy)

 

[Captain43Crash]

Pollard is faster, a little more elusive, and just as powerful. They both are tough backs, especially for their size. Pollard catches just as well, but does not get as many opportunities as McCaffrey. McCaffrey can handle a little bit more of a workload.

Pollard is every bit as good as McCaffrey!

 

[Wilson]

I genuinely think Pollard is worthy of the franchise tag next season.

I was thinking this very thing this afternoon.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

I genuinely think Pollard is worthy of the franchise tag next season, I just think McCaffrey is worth a bit more. And the big difference is that you don't have to extrapolate it, he's done it for six years (whenever healthy)

Yeah I actually agree. I typically am vehemently opposed to giving running backs long term contracts, but Pollard has proven to be a rare talent. He has very little tread on his tires (compared to most lead backs after their 4th season), would still post elite per-touch numbers with a little bit of regression, and quite frankly I do not think any 2nd or 3rd round rookie can step in and do what Pollard has done. After quite a few plays he's made this season I have sat there and thought "there are not many players in the NFL that could have done that". If we didn't have him making those plays, who knows how this season goes.

The franchise tag gives you a years to draft and develop your next RB while keeping Pollard on a pretty team friendly deal. From there you can attempt to franchise tag him again, but odds are he and his agent will be looking for a long term deal at that point.

Enjoy him while you have him. TP is a special player.

 

[Rayman70]

we need Micah Davis in this game as well. Secret weapon.

 

[DFWJC]

Love Pollard, but CMC is ridiculously good.

Total Yards from Scrimmage in 2022

• McCaffery = 1880
• Pollard = 1378

McCaffery is stronger, has a better 40 time, and is one of the league's better slot WRs

 

[Kellsbells]

Give TP over 100 more touches, and he far surpasses MC's numbers.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

Love Pollard, but CMC is ridiculously good.

Total Yards from Scrimmage in 2022

• McCaffery = 1880
• Pollard = 1378

Those numbers are present in the original post (add rushing + receiving together), and McCaffrey is shown highlighted in green with the edge here.

I think the most compelling argument to be made is that on a per-touch basis, even with pretty high volume, Pollard appears to be the better asset even with what many would say is the weaker supporting cast. I just don't think the difference between the two is as vast as many would make it seem.

 

[DFWJC]

Pollard is faster, a little more elusive, and just as powerful. They both are tough backs, especially for their size. Pollard catches just as well, but does not get as many opportunities as McCaffrey. McCaffrey can handle a little bit more of a workload.

Pollard is every bit as good as McCaffrey!

Pollard is good but he is neither fast nor more elusive.

 

[CashMan]

I genuinely think Pollard is worthy of the franchise tag next season, I just think McCaffrey is worth a bit more. And the big difference is that you don't have to extrapolate it, he's done it for six years (whenever healthy)

You can't sign him long term.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

Pollard is good but he is neither fast nor more elusive.

So if Pollard is notably and slower and less elusive than CMC, how are his per-touch numbers so much better even with worse blocking and scheme?

It's not like his volume is so low that it is inflating those numbers dramatically.

 

[perrykemp]

When I think of RBs that are closest to Pollard in terms of skillsets and production (at least this year) I think Aaron Jones is the closest to Pollard I can think of.

 

[DFWJC]

So if Pollard is notably and slower and less elusive than CMC, how are his per-touch numbers so much better even with worse blocking and scheme?

It's not like his volume is so low that it is inflating those numbers dramatically.

It's splitting hairs....imo.
If you think Tony is more elusive, I won't argue.
Just from watching all their games this year, I think CMC has the edge. As for speed, I was just going by 40 times. With CMC having more mileage, maybe he slowed some.

As far as scheme, I think if you look at CMC's numbers in the SF scheme, you will see his per-touch numbers are higher...., especially per-catch numbers.

I'm not here to argue really. Just adding some counter-opinions

 

[StuckMojo]

CMC is schemed in passing game by Shanahan much better than TP is by Moore.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

It's splitting hairs....imo.
If you think Tony is more elusive, I won't argue.
Just from watching all their games this year, I think CMC has the edge. As for speed, I was just going by 40 times. With CMC having more mileage, maybe he slowed some.

As far as scheme, I think if you look at CMC's numbers in the SF scheme, you will see his per-touch numbers are higher...., especially per-catch numbers.

That is fair. His per rush numbers are only up 0.1 ypc since joining SF (which is interesting. Perhaps the value of OK vs Great blocking is overstated?), but his per reception numbers are up 0.5 ypr. It appears the passing scheme has really suited him well.

CMC is a rare receiver and I agree with you he would probably be a 800-1000 yard receiver in the slot if he played exclusively WR. There are almost no other running backs that could do that.

Like I said, I don't personally think either is "better" than the other. They just have different standout traits.

 

[Runwildboys]

Give TP over 100 more touches, and he far surpasses MC's numbers.

Or he burns out. We really don't know. That said, he's a great RB.

 

[DFWJC]

That is fair. His per rush numbers are only up 0.1 ypc since joining SF (which is interesting. Perhaps the value of OK vs Great blocking is overstated?), but his per reception numbers are up 0.5 ypr. It appears the passing scheme has really suited him well.

CMC is a rare receiver and I agree with you he would probably be a 800-1000 yard receiver in the slot if he played exclusively WR. There are almost no other running backs that could do that.

Like I said, I don't personally think either is "better" than the other. They just have different standout traits.

And his first game was off the street and not knowing anything....they played him some but it was a bit of a cluster. So that too would dilute his per-game value.

Anyway, I appreciate your work.

Here's to hoping on Sunday, Pollard > CMC

 

[DFWJC]

Give TP over 100 more touches, and he far surpasses MC's numbers.

It doesn't usually work that way.
100 touches is a LOT of touches and may include a ton of short yardage work--which increases wear and tear and always decreases yards per touch

Felix Jones would be in the hall of fame....lol