Projecting six NFL playoff teams primed to miss cut in 2024

[triplets_93]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...4-buccaneers-steelers-could-lose-their-spots/

Dallas Cowboys
2023 finish: 12-5 (0-1) | Last non-playoff season: 2020
They've still got elite play-makers on both sides of the ball, but Jerry Jones is all but forcing his quarterback-head coach duo into an ultimatum season, with Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy under pressure to make a deep run. Meanwhile Prescott's O-line has real questions, the defense has new management, and they've not upgraded skill spots.

 

[KJJ]

I said immediately after the debacle to the Packers that it’s going to be very difficult bouncing back in 2024 after an embarrassment like that. Now with a lackluster offseason that saw us lose several starters and a lot of depth I’m even more convinced we could be headed for a down season. Maybe it won’t be as bad as it appears but we’re going to need a great draft and several young players from last years draft are going to have to step up to avoid a rough season. With so many down on the Cowboys maybe that will inspire them. A lot of times low expectations motivate the team. The way Philly collapsed at the end of last season leaves some uncertainty for them. If they pick up where they left off last season that would certainly benefit us.

 

[Carson]

I said immediately after the debacle to the Packers that it’s going to be very difficult bouncing back in 2024 after an embarrassment like that. Now with a lackluster offseason that saw us lose several starters and a lot of depth I’m even more convinced we could be headed for a down season. Maybe it won’t be as bad as it appears but we’re going to need a great draft and several young players from last years draft are going to have to step up to avoid a rough season. With so many down on the Cowboys maybe that will inspire them. A lot of times low expectations motivate the team.

A down season isn’t bad because itll land you prime picks.

This team is destined for 8 wins minimum. They haven’t won less than 8 games in over 20 years when their QB1 stays healthy

 

[KJJ]

A down season isn’t bad because itll land you prime picks.

This team is destined for 8 wins minimum. They haven’t won less than 8 games in over 20 years when their QB1 stays healthy

A lot of Cowboys fans are hoping for a down season to improve our draft position and to shake the Joneses. I’m not part of that group of fans because a higher draft pick doesn’t guarantee a great player. I’ve seen too many teams picking later in the first round end up with a better player than a team picking in the top 10. The draft is a big roll of the dice. A down season could lead to a house cleaning involving a new QB and HC. That could lead to a number of down years.

 

[acr731]

A lot of Cowboys fans are hoping for a down season to improve our draft position and to shake the Joneses. I’m not part of that group of fans because a higher draft pick doesn’t guarantee a great player. I’ve seen too many teams picking later in the first round end up with a better player than a team picking in the top 10. The draft is a big roll of the dice. A down season could lead to a house cleaning involving a new QB and HC. That could lead to a number of down years.

So you prefer status quo and 1 and done every year? Damn, dude.... you seriously don't want anything more?

You're the type of fan Jerry loves - one who doesn't expect more, and isn't trying to force him to pull his head out of his butt.

 

[acr731]

Dallas Cowboys​

2023 finish: 12-5 (0-1) | Last non-playoff season: 2020

They've still got elite play-makers on both sides of the ball, but Jerry Jones is all but forcing his quarterback-head coach duo into an ultimatum season, with Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy under pressure to make a deep run. Meanwhile Prescott's O-line has real questions, the defense has new management, and they've not upgraded skill spots.

So who are the 'elite play-makers'? Ceedee is certainly up there, maybe Zach Martin as well, but who else could they be referring to? Dak isn't elite and they don't have a #1 RB. Parsons on defense? Who else sticks out?

This team isn't loaded with elite play-makers; not even close.

 

[Flamma]

I said immediately after the debacle to the Packers that it’s going to be very difficult bouncing back in 2024 after an embarrassment like that. Now with a lackluster offseason that saw us lose several starters and a lot of depth I’m even more convinced we could be headed for a down season. Maybe it won’t be as bad as it appears but we’re going to need a great draft and several young players from last years draft are going to have to step up to avoid a rough season. With so many down on the Cowboys maybe that will inspire them. A lot of times low expectations motivate the team. The way Philly collapsed at the end of last season leaves some uncertainty for them. If they pick up where they left off last season that would certainly benefit us.

Excellent post. I could be totally wrong on this, but I think Jerry might be going scorched earth. That loss at home to GB might be too embarrassing. I think he might not pay anyone. Let them prove they're worth their contract. Does our front office think they are good enough to go deep into the playoffs but isn't putting in the effort? That's what it looks like to me. Only time will tell.

 

[KJJ]

So you prefer status quo and 1 and done every year? Damn, dude.... you seriously don't want anything more?

You're the type of fan Jerry loves - one who doesn't expect more, and isn't trying to force him to pull his head out of his butt.

Where did I say I want status quo? You can improve the team without having a terrible season leading to a high draft pick. Some of you think the only way to build a championship team is to tear everything down and start from the ground up. I expect a lot more than what we’ve achieved but you don’t need to set your sights on a 5 win season and a top 10 pick to build a great team. We weren’t that far off talent wise at the end of last season but now we’ve fallen off with the free agent losses and the lack of signings.

 

[CWR]

I said immediately after the debacle to the Packers that it’s going to be very difficult bouncing back in 2024 after an embarrassment like that. Now with a lackluster offseason that saw us lose several starters and a lot of depth I’m even more convinced we could be headed for a down season. Maybe it won’t be as bad as it appears but we’re going to need a great draft and several young players from last years draft are going to have to step up to avoid a rough season. With so many down on the Cowboys maybe that will inspire them. A lot of times low expectations motivate the team. The way Philly collapsed at the end of last season leaves some uncertainty for them. If they pick up where they left off last season that would certainly benefit us.

We'd bounce back just fine, IF we actually addressed our problems. We still have the same oline coach, we have no rb, and we've not gained any talent on the line.

On defense, we've added ONE 32 year old lb to stop the run, and a new coach. I dont know how far that takes us, but we are looking super reliant on rookies to come in a save the day. It's particularly ironic considering we got next to no production out of last year's class.

 

[KJJ]

On defense, we've added ONE 32 year old lb to stop the run, and a new coach. I dont know how far that takes us, but we are looking super reliant on rookies to come in a save the day. It's particularly ironic considering we got next to no production out of last year's class.

We don’t have the cap space to address the problems. We’re banking on the draft.

 

[baltcowboy]

So who are the 'elite play-makers'? Ceedee is certainly up there, maybe Zach Martin as well, but who else could they be referring to? Dak isn't elite and they don't have a #1 RB. Parsons on defense? Who else sticks out?

This team isn't loaded with elite play-makers; not even close.

Dak is elite. All-pro quarterback 2nd in MVP voting, led league in touchdown passes, 2nd in pass percentage, ect.

Tyler Smith, Martin, CeeDee offense.

Parsons, Bland, and Diggs defense.

 

[acr731]

Dak is elite. All-pro quarterback 2nd in MVP voting, led league in touchdown passes, 2nd in pass percentage, ect.

Always sucks in the playoffs = not elite.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

A down season isn’t bad because itll land you prime picks.

This team is destined for 8 wins minimum. They haven’t won less than 8 games in over 20 years when their QB1 stays healthy

This is the problem.

A "down" year for Dallas generally means at or slightly above .500. That does not net premium picks and it leaves them in the weird NFL purgatory they have drifted through for the last 20 years. The front office's refusal to push the chips in or burn the whole thing down has led to perpetually being good, but not great.

 

[CWR]

We don’t have the cap space to address the problems. We’re banking on the draft.

We could make space. We chose not to. They aren't willing to face the prospect of down years and rebuilds.

 

[plasticman]

I cannot comprehend any circumstances under which I would want to Cowboys to lose more games. The premise that losing will increase odds of winning in the future is extremely flawed.

How many times have teams received the advantage of multiple years drafting in the top five and still fail to produce a winning team? Besides, a team could draft well but coach and manage poorly.

How many times did the Cowboys of the 70's or the Patriots during the previous two decades draft in the bottom quarter or even the last two picks in their drafts and still come away with multiple Super bowl appearances?

The best way for an NFL team to improve would be to fire any coach or executive that came up with a strategy of tanking the season.

 

[KJJ]

We could make space. We chose not to. They aren't willing to face the prospect of down years and rebuilds.

Hard to make much more space with three big extensions looming. They may have to make a very tough decision with one of those players.

 

[KJJ]

Excellent post. I could be totally wrong on this, but I think Jerry might be going scorched earth. That loss at home to GB might be too embarrassing. I think he might not pay anyone. Let them prove they're worth their contract. Does our front office think they are good enough to go deep into the playoffs but isn't putting in the effort? That's what it looks like to me. Only time will tell.

The Joneses will extend at least two of the three. They have a real dilemma with Dak who has all the leverage and we have no one viable behind him. If he gets to free agency he’s likely gone. It’s going to be interesting to see what the Joneses will do. Dak may want to test free agency. He might be feeling like it’s time for a change of scenery after the upcoming season. The fan abuse is getting worse every year. He has to be getting tired of it.

 

[CWR]

Hard to make much more space with three big extensions looming. They may have to make a very tough decision with one of those players.

I don't buy it for a second. They can stagger contracts with a rising cap. They can create void years, and restructures. There are a plethora of mechanisms to manipulate the cap. Look at Philly going all the way back to Wentz. They never missed a beat in FA. Of course they lost guys here and there, but always remained active and NEVER faced the same cap hell we've been in forever.

Besides that we aren't talking about massive deals. Aaron Jones wasn't expensive for example.

We've been out of FA for years now. Exactly when does our cap clean up enough to take at least mid range guys for gapping holes on the team? Their entire FA philosophy is so ridiculously over corrected its holding us back. We aren't the only team with stars, but we are one of the only teams to stand pat year in and year out.

The one year prove it deals are great in theory, but I'd also wager they've brought in quite a few selfish players who are much more concerned about their next contract/stats than winning.

 

[rambo2]

So you prefer status quo and 1 and done every year? Damn, dude.... you seriously don't want anything more?

You're the type of fan Jerry loves - one who doesn't expect more, and isn't trying to force him to pull his head out of his butt.

Every year is different. They could just as easily advance in the playoffs as be one and done.

 

[KJJ]

I don't buy it for a second. They can stagger contracts with a rising cap. They can create void years, and restructures. There are a plethora of mechanisms to manipulate the cap.

Right, Mr. cap expert. There’s plenty of you on the board who seem to think you have it all figured out. Eventually massaging the cap with all the restructuring will catch up with you and you’ll have to pay the piper. The three huge extensions the Cowboys have coming up have put them in a pickle.