Projecting the 2008 Compensatory Draft Picks

[jwhardin]

Adam, you are truly an amazing person.

 

[AdamJT13]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but even if Smoot was an UFA, that wouldn't affect the 3rd rounder, would it?

Not unless I'm wrong about players signed not canceling out a player lost whose value is in a higher round if there is a lower-valued player to cancel out.

Smoot's value, if he had been a UFA in the first place, would be in the range of the fifth-round comp picks. Unless I'm wrong about the canceling process, he would have canceled out the loss of Warrick Holdman, so the Commanders wouldn't have gotten a comp pick for Holdman.

 

[firehawk350]

That's what I thought. Thanks.

 

[Rockytop6]

who the hell are you and how the hell do you do it......

I'll tell you who he is. He is a genius. If the people who know the formula have trouble figuring it out, how can Adam who doesn't know the formula figure it out unless he is a genius?

 

[AbeBeta]

Holy pozole.

 

[gollum]

Your ears must have been burning because I was getting excited yesterday about seeing this posted in a few weeks...It's Christmas in March!

 

[Hostile]

Wow, so Reeves was signed by the Texans on a 5 year deal worth 20 mil. We might be looking at a 5th round pick for this in 2009! Sweet! Probably more like a 6th though. It's like having your cake and eating it too.

We might get something decent with Julius leaving as well.

This is all assuming we stand pat in FA this year.

BBQ

Makes me wonder about what could happen if Julius gets a nice deal. Also has the Zach Thomas signing nullified that loss?

 

[AdamJT13]

Makes me wonder about what could happen if Julius gets a nice deal. Also has the Zach Thomas signing nullified that loss?

Thomas won't count in the equation at all, because he was not a true UFA.

The only players we could possibly get comp picks for next year are Jacques Reeves, Julius Jones, Nate Jones and Keith Davis, because those are our only true UFAs. If they all sign with other teams before June 1 and for enough money, and if we don't sign any true UFAs who qualify for the equation, we would get a comp pick for each of them.

 

[gollum]

Thomas won't count in the equation at all, because he was not a true UFA.

The only players we could possibly get comp picks for next year are Jacques Reeves, Julius Jones, Nate Jones and Keith Davis, because those are our only true UFAs. If they all sign with other teams before June 1 and for enough money, and if we don't sign any true UFAs who qualify for the equation, we would get a comp pick for each of them.

So getting Warrick Dunn instead of Tatum Bell would benefit us, at least in that regard.

 

[Hostile]

Thomas won't count in the equation at all, because he was not a true UFA.

The only players we could possibly get comp picks for next year are Jacques Reeves, Julius Jones, Nate Jones and Keith Davis, because those are our only true UFAs. If they all sign with other teams before June 1 and for enough money, and if we don't sign any true UFAs who qualify for the equation, we would get a comp pick for each of them.

Thank you. Makes me want to not sign anyone unless they are a released player.

 

[Hostile]

So getting Warrick Dunn instead of Tatum Bell would benefit us, at least in that regard.

Good point.

 

[Sandyf]

Thanks Adam and a great job. I wouldn't mind Dallas having a couple of picks extra next year although I do wonder how many of the actual comp picks have made a team and started. Would be interesting to know.

 

[AbeBeta]

Thank you. Makes me want to not sign anyone unless they are a released player.

But given the sort of guys we are going to lose, we would be talking about at best what, a pick at the end of the 7th round? Hardly seems worth it.

 

[Hostile]

But given the sort of guys we are going to lose, we would be talking about at best what, a pick at the end of the 7th round? Hardly seems worth it.

Jay Ratliff, Deon Anderson, Nick Folk, Pat MCQuistan, Courtney Brown, Alan Ball, Rob Petitti, & Patrick Crayton all have been drafted in the 6th or 7th rounds of the last 4 Drafts and all have contributed to the team in one way or another.

Yeah, it seems worth it to me.

 

[ajk23az]

Thank you. Makes me want to not sign anyone unless they are a released player.

Javon Walker & Warrick Dunn

 

[CoCo]

Haven't read the article to decipher the formula. Don't have time right now.

But what would Dallas have stood to gain as a compensatory pick had Flo signed a comparable deal with another team? When I'm looking at Derrick Dockery netting the Skins a 3rd, I'm suspecting Flo would've done the same.

One more reason to draft and groom young guys to become starters.

 

[Hostile]

Haven't read the article to decipher the formula. Don't have time right now.

But what would Dallas have stood to gain as a compensatory pick had Flo signed a comparable deal with another team? When I'm looking at Derrick Dockery netting the Skins a 3rd, I'm suspecting Flo would've done the same.

One more reason to draft and groom young guys to become starters.

I think that would be a safe bet.

 

[AdamJT13]

But given the sort of guys we are going to lose, we would be talking about at best what, a pick at the end of the 7th round? Hardly seems worth it.

If Jacques Reeves' contract is for $4 million per year, as reported, we should get a fifth- or sixth-round pick for him next year, if we get one. Julius Jones and Keith Davis easily could get enough for more than a seventh-round pick, too.

Not that I'd avoid signing the right player just because he's a UFA. But if we're considering a street free agent and a UFA, and they're pretty much equal, I'd probably try harder to sign the street free agent than the UFA.

 

[Skinsmaniac]

I've never understood the rationale behind compensatory picks. Free agency is part of the competitive landscape, and all teams are affected by it. Why reward teams that have more players leave than they sign? It favors teams that build through the draft, and Commanders bias notwithstanding, I don't understand why the league would necessarily be interested in doing that.

 

[gollum]

This year, I’m projecting that Atlanta will receive a net-value comp after losing three qualifying players (Patrick Kerney, Ashley Lelie and Justin Griffith) and signing three qualifying players (Ovie Mughelli, Lewis Sanders and Marcus Wilkins). The combined values of the players Atlanta lost was more than twice as much as the combined values of the players it signed.

Atlanta (net-value comp; signed three for $9.567 million, 47/30 and one Pro Bowl; lost three for $4.964 million, 45/13)
.

Are these backwords ("signed" vs "lost")? Awesome job by the way!!!