"Prospect Fatigue" Options at 12

DasTex said:
Warming up to Mykell WIlliams. Think he produces more in the NFL than he did in college.

If they could get Mykell in the 1st and Tyleik Williams in the 2nd - that's building a winning Dline
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If the Cowboys made your two picks I would be dancing in the streets. The run defense would improve immediately. I don’t think fans understand the Cowboys were 3rd in sacks last season. Improve the run defense, defense becomes elite.
 
cnuball21 said:
Every year there are prospects that have been talked about as top 10/15ish picks for multiple years that start to lose steam heading into the draft as people start to nitpick just so they have something new to talk about as it relates to the player. Some of these players I'd consider top options for us at 12. Ideally in the top 15 you're getting someone who checks the boxes for traits, production and level of competition.

Will Johnson / CB: If he would've come out in the last draft he'd likely have been a top 10 lock. This year he battled through injury and didn't have the chance to finish the season. Now folks are questioning his long speed and talking more about his injured tape than his healthy tape. He might not be 4.4 guy but he's been clocked over 20 MPH and has plus fluidity for a CB his size. Battle tested with quality tape against MHJ and Odunze. We're going to run a zone heavy scheme so I have zero concerns about his athleticism and I think it will suit his eyes / instincts perfectly.

T Mac / WR: "Cant separate" and "Not enough speed" seems to be the popular phrases for him at this stage. All he did was put up 3K+ yards over the last few seasons with a below average QB. Long speed is average, but still enough for him to win at all 3 levels and he is a more smooth athlete than most players his size. Elite ball skills and someone I think will help us in the RedZone. Not to mention he's going to be a 1B target so we don't to be a legit blue chipper just someone who can constantly beat 1:1s when Lamb is eating double coverage.

Mykell WIlliams / DE: Had a minor break out freshman year, built up on it as a Sophomore and then played through injury this past season. Crazy length, power and movement skills for a kid his size. Battle tested in the SEC and has tape where he throws around draftable OTs like they're high schoolers. For a team that has gotten throttled against good run teams I think immediately helps in year 1 while continuing to develop his pass rush tool kit. People love to knock the pass rush production but he did have 6+ sacks and 30+ pressures in his last healthy season and his role will be much different in the NFL. He was asked to do a lot of read / react 2 gapping and kicked inside at times. His healthy season was more productive than any season Nolen Smith every had who has turned into a stud. UGAS does ZERO favors for their Edge prospects.

Will Campebll / OT: Tackle? Guard? Campbell broke onto the season starting at LT at LSU as a true freshman which is nuts. Battle tested as he's gone toe to toe with multiple 1st round pass rushers and held his own (allowed 5 sacks in 3 full seasons and had a 97%+ win rate last year). Can he stick at LT? IDK but I'm going to give him a chance due to his feel for the game, technique and instincts. Worst case scenario you plug him in at RG and I think he's a year 1 starter. If Dal thinks he has a good chance of being a good LT I could get behind it. Don't love multiple 1st rounders on the OL but Dak probably has 1/2 more years left so we'd be setting up the next QB for more success.
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All 4 players would be in play at 12 and I would love either of the four.
 
cnuball21 said:
Every year there are prospects that have been talked about as top 10/15ish picks for multiple years that start to lose steam heading into the draft as people start to nitpick just so they have something new to talk about as it relates to the player. Some of these players I'd consider top options for us at 12. Ideally in the top 15 you're getting someone who checks the boxes for traits, production and level of competition.

Will Johnson / CB: If he would've come out in the last draft he'd likely have been a top 10 lock. This year he battled through injury and didn't have the chance to finish the season. Now folks are questioning his long speed and talking more about his injured tape than his healthy tape. He might not be 4.4 guy but he's been clocked over 20 MPH and has plus fluidity for a CB his size. Battle tested with quality tape against MHJ and Odunze. We're going to run a zone heavy scheme so I have zero concerns about his athleticism and I think it will suit his eyes / instincts perfectly.

T Mac / WR: "Cant separate" and "Not enough speed" seems to be the popular phrases for him at this stage. All he did was put up 3K+ yards over the last few seasons with a below average QB. Long speed is average, but still enough for him to win at all 3 levels and he is a more smooth athlete than most players his size. Elite ball skills and someone I think will help us in the RedZone. Not to mention he's going to be a 1B target so we don't to be a legit blue chipper just someone who can constantly beat 1:1s when Lamb is eating double coverage.

Mykell WIlliams / DE: Had a minor break out freshman year, built up on it as a Sophomore and then played through injury this past season. Crazy length, power and movement skills for a kid his size. Battle tested in the SEC and has tape where he throws around draftable OTs like they're high schoolers. For a team that has gotten throttled against good run teams I think immediately helps in year 1 while continuing to develop his pass rush tool kit. People love to knock the pass rush production but he did have 6+ sacks and 30+ pressures in his last healthy season and his role will be much different in the NFL. He was asked to do a lot of read / react 2 gapping and kicked inside at times. His healthy season was more productive than any season Nolen Smith every had who has turned into a stud. UGAS does ZERO favors for their Edge prospects.

Will Campebll / OT: Tackle? Guard? Campbell broke onto the season starting at LT at LSU as a true freshman which is nuts. Battle tested as he's gone toe to toe with multiple 1st round pass rushers and held his own (allowed 5 sacks in 3 full seasons and had a 97%+ win rate last year). Can he stick at LT? IDK but I'm going to give him a chance due to his feel for the game, technique and instincts. Worst case scenario you plug him in at RG and I think he's a year 1 starter. If Dal thinks he has a good chance of being a good LT I could get behind it. Don't love multiple 1st rounders on the OL but Dak probably has 1/2 more years left so we'd be setting up the next QB for more success.
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Think it has to do more with what teams and actual scouts thinking getting leaked than fatigue!

I don’t know that long speed for Johnson is that big a concern. Everything I’ve read projects him to excel in zone coverage and less effective in man. If his man coverage skills were equal I think he would be a lock top 10. As is I think he’ll go 8-16.

I don’t see the interest in McMillan. First I can’t see the logic of taking a #2 wr at 12 when it’s unlikely just due to the scheme we’re going to play that his production ever comes close to being worth the 12th pick!
That’s before you get into the separation concerns. The balls skills of the CBs this level are going to far exceed 90% of what he faced in college. Too much risk for limited production from the #2 wr in a run based offense for my taste.

Campbell probably projects best to Right Tackle but you could probably get away with him on the left for 4 or 5 seasons until wear and tear forces your hand. That leaves the conundrum… do you want to draft a player top 10 and force him to play out of position for 4 or5 seasons and then pay him to the scale of the left side after being forced to move him to the right!
Or you can just do what the eagles did… draft him… stick him on the right side and have one of the most dominant right tackles in the league for 12 plus seasons!

I think Mykel Williams is a strong side DE in this league.
Same as with #2 wr at 12, it just too unlikely that his production meets the value of the 12th pick.
His ceiling is probably 8 sacks with an average of 5 or 6 per season over 10 seasons!
 
exciter said:
Think it has to do more with what teams and actual scouts thinking getting leaked than fatigue!

I don’t know that long speed for Johnson is that big a concern. Everything I’ve read projects him to excel in zone coverage and less effective in man. If his man coverage skills were equal I think he would be a lock top 10. As is I think he’ll go 8-16.

I don’t see the interest in McMillan. First I can’t see the logic of taking a #2 wr at 12 when it’s unlikely just due to the scheme we’re going to play that his production ever comes close to being worth the 12th pick!
That’s before you get into the separation concerns. The balls skills of the CBs this level are going to far exceed 90% of what he faced in college. Too much risk for limited production from the #2 wr in a run based offense for my taste.

Campbell probably projects best to Right Tackle but you could probably get away with him on the left for 4 or 5 seasons until wear and tear forces your hand. That leaves the conundrum… do you want to draft a player top 10 and force him to play out of position for 4 or5 seasons and then pay him to the scale of the left side after being forced to move him to the right!
Or you can just do what the eagles did… draft him… stick him on the right side and have one of the most dominant right tackles in the league for 12 plus seasons!

I think Mykel Williams is a strong side DE in this league.
Same as with #2 wr at 12, it just too unlikely that his production meets the value of the 12th pick.
His ceiling is probably 8 sacks with an average of 5 or 6 per season over 10 seasons!
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A+
 
exciter said:
Think it has to do more with what teams and actual scouts thinking getting leaked than fatigue!

I don’t know that long speed for Johnson is that big a concern. Everything I’ve read projects him to excel in zone coverage and less effective in man. If his man coverage skills were equal I think he would be a lock top 10. As is I think he’ll go 8-16.

I don’t see the interest in McMillan. First I can’t see the logic of taking a #2 wr at 12 when it’s unlikely just due to the scheme we’re going to play that his production ever comes close to being worth the 12th pick!
That’s before you get into the separation concerns. The balls skills of the CBs this level are going to far exceed 90% of what he faced in college. Too much risk for limited production from the #2 wr in a run based offense for my taste.

Campbell probably projects best to Right Tackle but you could probably get away with him on the left for 4 or 5 seasons until wear and tear forces your hand. That leaves the conundrum… do you want to draft a player top 10 and force him to play out of position for 4 or5 seasons and then pay him to the scale of the left side after being forced to move him to the right!
Or you can just do what the eagles did… draft him… stick him on the right side and have one of the most dominant right tackles in the league for 12 plus seasons!

I think Mykel Williams is a strong side DE in this league.
Same as with #2 wr at 12, it just too unlikely that his production meets the value of the 12th pick.
His ceiling is probably 8 sacks with an average of 5 or 6 per season over 10 seasons!
Click to expand...
The going rate for a high end number 2 is astronomical.

That’s why more and more teams are drafting them in the 1st.
 
cnuball21 said:
The going rate for a high end number 2 is astronomical.

That’s why more and more teams are drafting them in the 1st.
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Heavy passing focused teams start targeting #2 WRs in the late 20s to the early 3rd.
Ideally if this run first offense comes to fruition the number #2 receiver catch ceiling is going to be somewhere in the 40s.
I’d want more bang at 12 than 40 or even 50 receptions!
 
exciter said:
Heavy passing focused teams start targeting #2 WRs in the late 20s to the early 3rd.
Ideally if this run first offense comes to fruition the number #2 receiver catch ceiling is going to be somewhere in the 40s.
I’d want more bang at 12 than 40 or even 50 receptions!
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Eagles took Smith in the top 15 and just won the Super Bowl.

Also - this is a weak class so WRs that are usually be available in the late 1st are bumped up.

I’m also not sure there’s a universe where a championship caliber team in todays NFL #2 receiving option catches 40/50 balls.
 
cnuball21 said:
Eagles took Smith in the top 15 and just won the Super Bowl.

Also - this is a weak class so WRs that are usually be available in the late 1st are bumped up.

I’m also not sure there’s a universe where a championship caliber team in todays NFL #2 receiving option catches 40/50 balls.
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The eagles took Smith to be their #1 because Reagor was flaming out!
The eagles won the SB because of their OL, an outlier season from Barkley and a superior inside DLine.
Not because of Smith!

Agree, another reason not to reach for one at 12
… better players next year!
I don’t think you’re going to get anymore production from Tet as a 1st than what you will get from Jack Bech in the bottom end of the 2nd top of 3rd!

We just spent the last 2 seasons in a 2 read and check down offense.
Lamb and Ferguson was the 1st and 2nd read 70% of the plays!
We’re supposed to be going to a run based offense!
 
exciter said:
The eagles took Smith to be their #1 because Reagor was flaming out!
The eagles won the SB because of their OL, an outlier season from Barkley and a superior inside DLine.
Not because of Smith!

Agree, another reason not to reach for one at 12
… better players next year!
I don’t think you’re going to get anymore production from Tet as a 1st than what you will get from Jack Bech in the bottom end of the 2nd top of 3rd!

We just spent the last 2 seasons in a 2 read and check down offense.
Lamb and Ferguson was the 1st and 2nd read 70% of the plays!
We’re supposed to be going to a run based offense!
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And they immediately traded for AJ to basically give them 2 1s…Eagles were great all over - but Smith also caught a kill shot bomb in the Super Bowl.

Tet is a top 10 player on the consensus draft board. He wouldn’t be a reach by any means and it’s a huge need.

Tet had over 3k yards over his last 3 seasons, How many did Bech have?

And why do you think Ferguson was the 2nd read? BC we’ve had nothing at WR2 forever. We can try to be a run first offense all we want but the best teams in the NFC all have 2 high end receiving options and we have 1.
 
cnuball21 said:
And they immediately traded for AJ to basically give them 2 1s…Eagles were great all over - but Smith also caught a kill shot bomb in the Super Bowl.

Tet is a top 10 player on the consensus draft board. He wouldn’t be a reach by any means and it’s a huge need.

Tet had over 3k yards over his last 3 seasons, How many did Bech have?

And why do you think Ferguson was the 2nd read? BC we’ve had nothing at WR2 forever. We can try to be a run first offense all we want but the best teams in the NFC all have 2 high end receiving options and we have 1.
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No!
They traded for Brown the following season after giving up on Reagor and becoming nervous that Smith could hold up as the #1!

No!
Some of the more respectable boards have had him steadily dropping for weeks.
He’s a mid first talent.

So!
They traded for Cooks, who had been the #1 in Houston for 3 consecutive years and then arbitrarily decided he wasn’t worthy being the 2nd option here?
No!
That was the design of the offense!
 
exciter said:
No!
They traded for Brown the following season after giving up on Reagor and becoming nervous that Smith could hold up as the #1!

No!
Some of the more respectable boards have had him steadily dropping for weeks.
He’s a mid first talent.

So!
They traded for Cooks, who had been the #1 in Houston for 3 consecutive years and then arbitrarily decided he wasn’t worthy being the 2nd option here?
No!
That was the design of the offense!
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Correct - the season after they drafted Smith they immediately saw the value in having 2 high caliber WRs.

Incorrect - you’re talking about a limited amount of media scouts and I’m talking about the consensus rankings that aggregates from all rankings.

Incorrect - they traded for Cooks when he was completely outside of his prime and no longer the player he used to be when he was consistently racking up 1K yard seasons. (The Cowboys way)
 
cnuball21 said:
Correct - the season after they drafted Smith they immediately saw the value in having 2 high caliber WRs.

Incorrect - you’re talking about a limited amount of media scouts and I’m talking about the consensus rankings that aggregates from all rankings.

Incorrect - they traded for Cooks when he was completely outside of his prime and no longer the player he used to be when he was consistently racking up 1K yard seasons. (The Cowboys way)
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The eagles also had the luxury of 2 1st round picks that season. Notice they dropped the 18th not 13th on an established receiver. Not some guy who there’s a 50% chance has to be converted to TE in 3 seasons in a desperation move.

More draft boards will be dropping him into the 20s as more leaks of what actual scouts and GMs think of him comes out!
 
Draft mykel and be done with it.



Get the receiver round 2. Williams/royals or Noel will be there. There's your explosive wr 2 who won't make an impact in December/January.
 
exciter said:
The eagles also had the luxury of 2 1st round picks that season. Notice they dropped the 18th not 13th on an established receiver. Not some guy who there’s a 50% chance has to be converted to TE in 3 seasons in a desperation move.

More draft boards will be dropping him into the 20s as more leaks of what actual scouts and GMs think of him comes out!
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Yea, look what we traded Amari for. You understand teams looking to trade expensive players are always going to get less draft capital than ideal when theyre trying to unload contracts right?

And again, you’re limiting his rankings to the few media scouts that have him later than what I’ve referenced. The consensus rankings have him significantly higher in the top 10.
 
My question is what kind of a WR will TMac be in the pros? Will he be used like a possession receiver? Will he be like a Michael Gallup making contested catches and some circus grabs but no much else?

The Cowboys have CeeDee, and he is versatile as a receiver. What would make the best compliment to CeeDee? Would it be a guy with speed, like Golden? or would it be a guy like TMac?

If you think it is a speed guy then why not see if Bond is available in the 2nd round? He had the send highest top speed on this draft class at the combine. That means he will be the better downfield threat.

I think the question is, do the Cowboys need another WR1? or wait to draft amore complimentary WR as a WR2?
 
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