Putting stats in perspective

[Bobhaze]

It’s a long held belief by most that statistics can be manipulated to say whatever you want them to. While that’s certainly sometimes true, accurate stats can also be very informative and enlightening. I have always liked looking at stats and what they say about a team.

But in today’s era of “Fantasy Football”, stats have become skewed IMO to favor “individual player statistics” over a team’s collective stats, especially regarding wins and losses. For example, who cares if your team's top WR leads the league in receptions and yardage if your team finishes 4-12? Who cares if your team’s QB has thrown for 4,500 yards if you’re in last place?

My point is this- Individual stats are only as good as they help your team win. A good example here is Zeke leading the league in rushing is a great stat because it has resulted in his team winning the NFC east.

So I would like to look at certain stats as “underrated” in that they say a lot more about the quality of your team than most realize. And also “overrated” stats that in and of themselves do not necessarily indicate the quality of your team’s ability to win.

Most Underrated Stats
1. Points per game- as opposed to yards per game, a defense that gives up the least amount of points is the most obvious and important stat for any defense. Same for offense. If you score a lot of points, you have a better chance to win.

2. Point differential- the amount of points your team has scored vs your opponents can show how dominant your team has been over the course of a season. Usually shows who the best teams are over time.

3. QB yards per attempt- a better way than just measuring total yards because it measures when your QB throws, how effective is that going to be per play. If the QB throws for 300 yards in a game but it took him 50 throws to reach 300 yards, his efficiency is less than a guy who threw for 250 yards in 25 throws, averaging 10 yards per attempt.

4. Total TDs by an individual- 4 of this year’s top 5 scorers are for teams making the playoffs. Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamura, Melvin Gordon, and Antonio Brown are all from contenders. Saquon Barkley is the exception.

Most Overrated Stats
1. QB Total passing yards- as stated earlier, yardage is empty if those yards do not result in wins. Matt Ryan is a good example of this in 2018. He has thrown for over 4,500 yards but his team won’t make the playoffs. And most of his yards were probably made while his team was behind.

2. RB rushing yards- it’s interesting that 3 of the top 5 rushers this year who have already rushed for over 1,000 yards, are not going to make the playoffs. Saquon Barkley, Christian McAffrey, and Joe Mixon are getting yards but their teams aren’t winning. Zeke is an exception of course.

3. Individual Interceptions- too often the guy who leads the league in int’s is being thrown at a lot more because he isn’t great at coverage. Team interceptions is a better stat because it tells you what the team is able to do collectively.

There are tons more stats in both categories. And I certainly recognize that stats are always going to be open for interpretation.

The bottom line for me is that I’m not impressed by individual stats if they do not translate into team wins.

 

[jazzcat22]

Fantasy sports and stats have skewed way too many fans perspective.
Look no further than this board. We are 9-6 and won the NFCE.
But yet many still whine Dak has a sub 200 yards game and not over a 300 yard game.

Look at Zeke's stats, for rushing over 22 times a game and if over 100 yards a game. W / L stat is amazing.
Same for Dak and his turnover margin. Far more wins when he does not turn the ball over.

To me that is what he needs to work on. Ball protection and pocket awareness. I can care less id he passes for 300 yards.
He can pass for 50 if we win, I don't care.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Fantasy sports and stats have skewed way too many fans perspective.
Look no further than this board. We are 9-6 and won the NFCE.
But yet many still whine Dak has a sub 200 yards game and not over a 300 yard game.

Look at Zeke's stats, for rushing over 22 times a game and if over 100 yards a game. W / L stat is amazing.
Same for Dak and his turnover margin. Far more wins when he does not turn the ball over.

To me that is what he needs to work on. Ball protection and pocket awareness. I can care less id he passes for 300 yards.
He can pass for 50 if we win, I don't care.

You must own a Trent Dilfer jersey based on that logic.

 

[Bobhaze]

Fantasy sports and stats have skewed way too many fans perspective.
Look no further than this board. We are 9-6 and won the NFCE.
But yet many still whine Dak has a sub 200 yards game and not over a 300 yard game.

Look at Zeke's stats, for rushing over 22 times a game and if over 100 yards a game. W / L stat is amazing.
Same for Dak and his turnover margin. Far more wins when he does not turn the ball over.

To me that is what he needs to work on. Ball protection and pocket awareness. I can care less id he passes for 300 yards.
He can pass for 50 if we win, I don't care.

Fantasy FB has skewed most fans to value yards over wins.

 

[viman96]

It’s a long held belief by most that statistics can be manipulated to say whatever you want them to. While that’s certainly sometimes true, accurate stats can also be very informative and enlightening. I have always liked looking at stats and what they say about a team.

But in today’s era of “Fantasy Football”, stats have become skewed IMO to favor “individual player statistics” over a team’s collective stats, especially regarding wins and losses. For example, who cares if your team's top WR leads the league in receptions and yardage if your team finishes 4-12? Who cares if your team’s QB has thrown for 4,500 yards if you’re in last place?

My point is this- Individual stats are only as good as they help your team win. A good example here is Zeke leading the league in rushing is a great stat because it has resulted in his team winning the NFC east.

So I would like to look at certain stats as “underrated” in that they say a lot more about the quality of your team than most realize. And also “overrated” stats that in and of themselves do not necessarily indicate the quality of your team’s ability to win.

Most Underrated Stats
1. Points per game- as opposed to yards per game, a defense that gives up the least amount of points is the most obvious and important stat for any defense. Same for offense. If you score a lot of points, you have a better chance to win.

2. Point differential- the amount of points your team has scored vs your opponents can show how dominant your team has been over the course of a season. Usually shows who the best teams are over time.

3. QB yards per attempt- a better way than just measuring total yards because it measures when your QB throws, how effective is that going to be per play. If the QB throws for 300 yards in a game but it took him 50 throws to reach 300 yards, his efficiency is less than a guy who threw for 250 yards in 25 throws, averaging 10 yards per attempt.

4. Total TDs by an individual- 4 of this year’s top 5 scorers are for teams making the playoffs. Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamura, Melvin Gordon, and Antonio Brown are all from contenders. Saquon Barkley is the exception.

Most Overrated Stats
1. QB Total passing yards- as stated earlier, yardage is empty if those yards do not result in wins. Matt Ryan is a good example of this in 2018. He has thrown for over 4,500 yards but his team won’t make the playoffs. And most of his yards were probably made while his team was behind.

2. RB rushing yards- it’s interesting that 3 of the top 5 rushers this year who have already rushed for over 1,000 yards, are not going to make the playoffs. Saquon Barkley, Christian McAffrey, and Joe Mixon are getting yards but their teams aren’t winning. Zeke is an exception of course.

3. Individual Interceptions- too often the guy who leads the league in int’s is being thrown at a lot more because he isn’t great at coverage. Team interceptions is a better stat because it tells you what the team is able to do collectively.

There are tons more stats in both categories. And I certainly recognize that stats are always going to be open for interpretation.

The bottom line for me is that I’m not impressed by individual stats if they do not translate into team wins.

IMO you missed a big underrated stat. Rushing 1st downs. Zeke leads the league with 73. Gurly is 2nd with 70. There is a huge drop off after them. Keep the chains moving. IMO that is one of main jobs of a RB. Move the chains.

 

[Jipper]

Fantasy sports and stats have skewed way too many fans perspective.
Look no further than this board. We are 9-6 and won the NFCE.
But yet many still whine Dak has a sub 200 yards game and not over a 300 yard game.

Look at Zeke's stats, for rushing over 22 times a game and if over 100 yards a game. W / L stat is amazing.
Same for Dak and his turnover margin. Far more wins when he does not turn the ball over.

To me that is what he needs to work on. Ball protection and pocket awareness. I can care less id he passes for 300 yards.
He can pass for 50 if we win, I don't care.

this board is almost becoming unreadable.....reading some of the posts its like we went 6-10 and missed the playoffs and gave up a decent 1st round pick....

I have honestly never seen a fanbase so whiny about a team locked in to the playoffs that was left for dead at 3-5 8 weeks ago....the hatred for dak, the coaches and jerry is so ridiculous that many would rather see us lose so they can wallow in their miserable joy of being right than see us win and have to eat crow while celebrating the team they profess to love.

its pathetic, i hope we win it all and dont have to listen to the whining anymore

 

[pancakeman]

Good post but I'd nominate points per drive rather than points per game.

 

[DallasEast]

this board is almost becoming unreadable.....reading some of the posts its like we went 6-10 and missed the playoffs and gave up a decent 1st round pick....

I have honestly never seen a fanbase so whiny about a team locked in to the playoffs that was left for dead at 3-5 8 weeks ago....the hatred for dak, the coaches and jerry is so ridiculous that many would rather see us lose so they can wallow in their miserable joy of being right than see us win and have to eat crow while celebrating the team they profess to love.

its pathetic, i hope we win it all and dont have to listen to the whining anymore

If you believe 'ridiculous' started on this forum around or after the time you joined...

Let us just say that you are more than a decade off in that particular assessment.

 

[Jipper]

If you believe 'ridiculous' started on this forum around or after the time you joined...

Let us just say that you are more than a decade off in that particular assessment.

I was on the old dc.com forum for the last decade (until they shut off suddenly) and i have seen my fair share of negativity; however, i can't remember it being this bad esp with the team making the playoffs or should i say earning the playoffs....i don't know why people arent so unbelievably excited that this season ended up as it did after the way it looked at the half way point....

 

[DallasEast]

3. Individual Interceptions- too often the guy who leads the league in int’s is being thrown at a lot more because he isn’t great at coverage. Team interceptions is a better stat because it tells you what the team is able to do collectively.

Interceptions, from the quarterback perspective, is one particular statistic that has always been warped by some people's perception LONG before fantasy football came into the world. Interceptions occur due to various factors. Bad reads. Deflections. Improperly run routes. Etc.

One thing is certain though. Some people will plop all interceptions at the quarterback's feet regardless of how they occur. Football should have evolved interception classification decades ago.

 

[erod]

Stats mask a lack of understanding.

Jeff George had stats. Troy Aikman did not.

Art Monk had stats. Drew Pearson did not.

Educated eyes don't need stats to think for them.

 

[DallasEast]

I was on the old dc.com forum for the last decade (until they shut off suddenly) and i have seen my fair share of negativity; however, i can't remember it being this bad esp with the team making the playoffs or should i say earning the playoffs....i don't know why people arent so unbelievably excited that this season ended up as it did after the way it looked at the half way point....

I have been here since 2004. Zealous criticism has reared its ugly head during previous playoff years, primarily empowered by what you may have already guessed: overly critical commentary of the quarterback.

Personally, I would put 2009, for example, over this year's mania. The first couple of weeks in December on the forum that season were more redonkulous than ridiculous. Thankfully, the team enjoyed a short winning streak to end the month and secure their postseason appearance. 2009 was CowboysZone 'Believe' year. Long story. In short, a couple of members (headed by @theebs) considered the team's effort as inspiring and started a feel good Believe theme--hoping the team could run the table. It REALLY grates on a couple of members' nerves and that is an understatement.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

It’s a long held belief by most that statistics can be manipulated to say whatever you want them to. While that’s certainly sometimes true, accurate stats can also be very informative and enlightening. I have always liked looking at stats and what they say about a team.

But in today’s era of “Fantasy Football”, stats have become skewed IMO to favor “individual player statistics” over a team’s collective stats, especially regarding wins and losses. For example, who cares if your team's top WR leads the league in receptions and yardage if your team finishes 4-12? Who cares if your team’s QB has thrown for 4,500 yards if you’re in last place?

My point is this- Individual stats are only as good as they help your team win. A good example here is Zeke leading the league in rushing is a great stat because it has resulted in his team winning the NFC east.

So I would like to look at certain stats as “underrated” in that they say a lot more about the quality of your team than most realize. And also “overrated” stats that in and of themselves do not necessarily indicate the quality of your team’s ability to win.

Most Underrated Stats
1. Points per game- as opposed to yards per game, a defense that gives up the least amount of points is the most obvious and important stat for any defense. Same for offense. If you score a lot of points, you have a better chance to win.

2. Point differential- the amount of points your team has scored vs your opponents can show how dominant your team has been over the course of a season. Usually shows who the best teams are over time.

3. QB yards per attempt- a better way than just measuring total yards because it measures when your QB throws, how effective is that going to be per play. If the QB throws for 300 yards in a game but it took him 50 throws to reach 300 yards, his efficiency is less than a guy who threw for 250 yards in 25 throws, averaging 10 yards per attempt.

4. Total TDs by an individual- 4 of this year’s top 5 scorers are for teams making the playoffs. Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamura, Melvin Gordon, and Antonio Brown are all from contenders. Saquon Barkley is the exception.

Most Overrated Stats
1. QB Total passing yards- as stated earlier, yardage is empty if those yards do not result in wins. Matt Ryan is a good example of this in 2018. He has thrown for over 4,500 yards but his team won’t make the playoffs. And most of his yards were probably made while his team was behind.

2. RB rushing yards- it’s interesting that 3 of the top 5 rushers this year who have already rushed for over 1,000 yards, are not going to make the playoffs. Saquon Barkley, Christian McAffrey, and Joe Mixon are getting yards but their teams aren’t winning. Zeke is an exception of course.

3. Individual Interceptions- too often the guy who leads the league in int’s is being thrown at a lot more because he isn’t great at coverage. Team interceptions is a better stat because it tells you what the team is able to do collectively.

There are tons more stats in both categories. And I certainly recognize that stats are always going to be open for interpretation.

The bottom line for me is that I’m not impressed by individual stats if they do not translate into team wins.

good points. I think defensively you have to include Sacks.....and looking at Sacks, Ints and 3rd down conversion usually leads to defenses that can bring the pressure. often if they don't get sacks, QBs under pressure make bad throws either leading to interceptions or incompletions.

Also offensively, pts/total yards usually shows offensive efficiency. yes, it can be skewed depending on field positionon individual game basis, but over a course of a season it averages out to what you really are.

Also redzone efficiency, is another indicator for offense.

 

[Bobhaze]

I was on the old dc.com forum for the last decade (until they shut off suddenly) and i have seen my fair share of negativity; however, i can't remember it being this bad esp with the team making the playoffs or should i say earning the playoffs....i don't know why people arent so unbelievably excited that this season ended up as it did after the way it looked at the half way point....

I’m excited Jip. But the last 23 seasons have taken some of the luster off.

 

[Roadtrip635]

Most stats on their own are overrated, because they only tell a very small piece of the story and it may not even be a very relevant part of the story. Stats are not predictive of the future, especially single stats, if they were everybody would be getting rich betting on games.

 

[Jipper]

I’m excited Jip. But the last 23 seasons have taken some of the luster off.

of course it has...and it wears on all of us...but you are one of the more positive posters, as am i, and im seeing so many that are just flat out negative.

Having tempered excitment and expectations is one thing, and warranted. Wanting this team to lose or saying we are going to lose bc of dak/garrett/jj and not having even a shred of excitement makes no sense to me....and there are tons of them on this site.

Just go read the title of the topics on the 1st page, at least 50% of them are substantially negative....

 

[Bobhaze]

of course it has...and it wears on all of us...but you are one of the more positive posters, as am i, and im seeing so many that are just flat out negative.

Having tempered excitment and expectations is one thing, and warranted. Wanting this team to lose or saying we are going to lose bc of dak/garrett/jj and not having even a shred of excitement makes no sense to me....and there are tons of them on this site.

Just go read the title of the topics on the 1st page, at least 50% of them are substantially negative....

It’s true. But I think it’s more of a reflection of people in general than just Cowboys fans. Negativity is not limited to our fans.

 

[Jipper]

It’s true. But I think it’s more of a reflection of people in general than just Cowboys fans. Negativity is not limited to our fans.

yeah i am with you....i guess the thing i have a hard time getting past is that we were 3-5 and staring a losing season in the face...now here we are with the last game of the regular season meaningless because we have already secured the nfc east....

the way some on here act, its almost as if they forget that making the playoffs is not a right because the team is the Dallas Cowboys....its very hard to do and to do it 3 out of the last 5 years is very good. Sure we have things we can work on, but this is one of the youngest teams in the nfl and we are about to head to the playoffs again, this time with a great defense which is what you have to have to win it all....

I could see a win against Seattle and then a shot in the divisional round....you never know if the defense comes to play....we could be sitting here in 3 weeks talking about how we are 1 win from our first SB since many were born!

How that doesn't get anyone fired up is beyond me....