So if let’s say the Jets are up 10 against the Chiefs going into the 4th….they would give the Chiefs the same probability as they would the Titans to come back down 10? If so I stand corrected I thought probability odds was dependent on who actually was playing.
If 20 percent of your stats are in garbage time is it really stat padding? What’s the other 80 percent?
He ain’t bullying nobody.
Are we sure though? Are we sure what they are considering garbage time?
Sort of....Its not about a specific team, but they do factor in the vegas line. Even that however is faded out as the game goes on. For example if you have a 7 point spread that will be fully factored into the win percentage model to start the game, and it decreases as the game goes on. So at half time it would be .5x7, start of the 4th quarter its .25x7, etc until you get down to the final minutes when it almost always becomes essentially zero.
That is correct. It would be practically impossible to determine point in time winning probability accounting for each teams characteristics since one key injury could drastically alter the equation in a split second. Even the advanced stats nerds might have a hard time keeping up.
He was 12th... and they outlined percentage of total. He was on par with most listed (21%). SMH... So confident... so wrong!
Oh, no...I see Generic is at it again. That dude is of his rocker, for sure! Coo Coo as hell.
Well I was thinking it’s like how betting stats change the odds based on the score and betting odds before the game. I stand corrected.
yeah that and the “if he played 17;games” argument while not acknowledging others didn’t play 17 games is nasty business lol.
They like to run up the score needlessly.
Yeah but if the opposing team is trying to stop them…..
I think there is a difference though. The Lions blew us out and kept just about their entire starting team in the game. There was no need to do that, as we couldn’t stop a nosebleed that game. Now look at both Eagle games. The Eagles were pulling starters by the 4th because they knew (probably) that we had no chance of winning either game. If Barkley played the 4th in both games he probably gets 200+ rushing both games.
Plus if you're up by two scores or more late in a game defenses are expecting runs and high percentage passes to keep the clock moving. You can really take advantage of play action and exploit matchups as you're likely to get more man coverage on the outside as those safeties are more aggressive cheating down in the box.
Yeah now the Cowboys game they lit us up for sure. That for sure was garbage nonsense we tapped out.
I was curious so I looked up the stats for both games. Barkley played 51% of the snaps in the first game (only had 14 carries) and 75% in the second game. The first game he didn't, and the second game they are showing snaps for the 3rd string guy, so if he did play in the 4th that game it wasn't much. Eagles pulled Hurts in the first game and pulled Pickett in the second, so they weren't trying to run up the score.
Garbage time stats in a big win certainly supercedes garbage times stats in a blowout loss.
I agree it’s likely factual but it is really only based on 1 parameter. If the author is suggesting a measure of garbage (padded) stats, I’m not sure using a 95% win rate as the only parameter to determine when garbage time begins is very useful.
Dak Prescott now has 23 comeback wins when tied or trailing in the fourth quarter. That’s fifth most since 2016. straight from google..Come on, 25 points, Dak has a hard time at coming back from 6 points.
