QB's (not named Brady) who played in the last 17 Super-Bowls & Draft Positions

[TwistedL0g1k]

QB's who played in the Super-bowl, from 2007, and their draft round:
Brady, a 6th round pick, is excluded from this list.
Round/Player

1 Manning
1 Grossman
1 Manning
1 Roethlisberger
n/a Warner
2 Brees
1 Manning
1 Rodgers
1 Roethlisberger
1 Manning (Eli)
1 Flacco
2 Kaepernick
3 Wilson
1 Manning
3 Wilson
1 Manning
1 Newton
1 Ryan
3 Foles
1 Goff
1 Mahomes
2 Garoppolo
1 Mahomes
1 Stafford
1 Burrow
1 Mahomes
2 Hurts

 

[Captain-Crash]

well, that solves the problem. It's time to move up to a 1 or 2, 4 isn't going to get it done.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

well, that solves the problem. It's time to move up to a 1 or 2, 4 isn't going to get it done.

Well a 1 or a 2 is not guarantee of course!
Pretty glaring statistics though.

 

[zrinkill]

Brady, a 6th round pick, is excluded from this list.
Round/Player

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

What I’ve said all along.

You can’t put your faith in a 4th round talent playing the most important position in sports.

Dak Prescott will NEVER lead any team to a Super Bowl.

 

[Captain-Crash]

What I’ve said all along.

You can’t put your faith in a 4th round talent playing the most important position in sports.

Dak Prescott will NEVER lead any team to a Super Bowl.

I said the same thing about Garrett. One of Garrett's fans was so upset that he said he marked it down to prove I was going to be wrong. shrugs...

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

I said the same thing about Garrett. One of Garrett's fans was so upset that he said he marked it down to prove I was going to be wrong. shrugs...

Tom Brady made careers for losers like Dak.

Tom Brady was a 6th round pick that became the GOAT, so now every loser like Dak or Romo that overachieves a little gets looked at as some kind of hidden gem by Jerry.

 

[Creeper]

Anyone want to take a cracks at the list of first round QB selections who never made it to a Super Bowl?

 

[zrinkill]

Anyone want to take a cracks at the list of first round QB selections who never made it to a Super Bowl?

Nahhh let these boys have their back slapping, high five thread.

 

[Einstein]

What I’ve said all along.

You can’t put your faith in a 4th round talent playing the most important position in sports.

Dak Prescott will NEVER lead any team to a Super Bowl.

WHY?!? There is an undrafted guy there that went to two and won one and was the MVP...

Plus I'd take Dak over Grossman, Flacco, and Kaepernick all played in a SB

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Anyone want to take a cracks at the list of first round QB selections who never made it to a Super Bowl?

That would be a long list indeed. But it does not disprove the point.

Analytics have shown that 1st round QB's have a far higher success rate than 2nd rounders, and 2nd rounders have a higher success rate than 3rd rounders. After the 3rd round, the probability of success falls dramatically.

The exceptions- first round busts, and late round successes, do not alter the fact.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

WHY?!? There is an undrafted guy there that went to two and won one and was the MVP...

Plus I'd take Dak over Grossman, Flacco, and Kaepernick all played in a SB

You’d take Dak over the QB that literally has the greatest playoff run for a QB in NFL history?

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

To be fair, one does have to consider the "costs" involved when making strategic decisions.

As pointed out, lots of 1st round QB's are busts, so a team might miss out on a lot of Smiths, Lambs, or even Parsons in its potentially futile attempt at finding that elusive franchise QB.

There's a balance to be found, and the salary cap plays into this at some point too.

There does seem to be some requisite level of QB talent needed to win the big one.

 

[Creeper]

That would be a long list indeed. But it does not disprove the point.

Analytics have shown that 1st round QB's have a far higher success rate than 2nd rounders, and 2nd rounders have a higher success rate than 3rd rounders. After the 3rd round, the probability of success falls dramatically.

The exceptions- first round busts, and late round successes, do not alter the fact.

Of course QB taken in the first should be expected to be better, but being taken in the 1st is not a guarantee of success. Many 1st round QB fail miserably.

 

[morat1959]

Of course QB taken in the first should be expected to be better, but being taken in the 1st is not a guarantee of success. Many 1st round QB fail miserably.

How do they fail compared to 4th round QBs?

 

[visionary]

Of course QB taken in the first should be expected to be better, but being taken in the 1st is not a guarantee of success. Many 1st round QB fail miserably.

 

[Blitzen]

Anyone want to take a cracks at the list of first round QB selections who never made it to a Super Bowl?

They could follow that up with all QB’s drafted in rounds 2 or later that never did too-plus anyone that was ever part of a 53 that was undrafted that never did. QB’s get over drafted for sure. The point being made was not about a guaranteed SB appearance.

 

[SiCk_DiAbLo]

So Dak can't even sniff a Super Bowl at getting drafted in Rd 4, what are the odds??

 

[Kwyn]

So Dak can't even sniff a Super Bowl at getting drafted in Rd 4, what are the odds??

About 100% over the past 15 years or so

 

[BaybeeJay]

About 100% over the past 15 years or so

There have been 150 quarterbacks drafted in the first 3 rounds since 2007. Only 9 (6%) have made it to a Super Bowl.

The absolute frequency of a quarterback playing in a Super Bowl is low, regardless of draft round.