QB's (not named Brady) who played in the last 17 Super-Bowls & Draft Positions

[Chocolate Lab]

Could've drafted Hendon Hooker in the second round this year. Just saying.

 

[Cowboys5217]

Anyone want to take a cracks at the list of first round QB selections who never made it to a Super Bowl?

Makes no difference. The proof is in the first post. you need to draft a QB high if you want the best chance to find an elite one. Busts don't mean you give up on the best methods as no plan is ever going to be perfect.

 

[Cowboys5217]

To be fair, one does have to consider the "costs" involved when making strategic decisions.

As pointed out, lots of 1st round QB's are busts, so a team might miss out on a lot of Smiths, Lambs, or even Parsons in its potentially futile attempt at finding that elusive franchise QB.

There's a balance to be found, and the salary cap plays into this at some point too.

There does seem to be some requisite level of QB talent needed to win the big one.

This why you don't appoint yourself as GM with no experience or threat of losing your job just like it isn't a good idea to buy a hospital and name yourself top surgeon with no medical experience or accountability. You hire the best on earth for those roles.

 

[Jumbo075]

Cowboys Super Bowl Quarterbacks:

1970 - Craig Morton, 1965 1st round pick, 5th overall
1971 - Roger Staubach, 1964 10th round pick, 129th overall
1975 - Roger Staubach, 1964 10th round pick, 129th overall
1977 - Roger Staubach, 1964 10th round pick, 129th overall
1978 - Roger Staubach, 1964 10th round pick, 129th overall
1992 - Troy Aikman, 1989 1st round pick, 1st overall
1993 - Troy Aikman, 1989 1st round pick, 1st overall
1995 - Troy Aikman, 1989 1st round pick, 1st overall

 

[gimmesix]

QB's who played in the Super-bowl, from 2007, and their draft round:
Brady, a 6th round pick, is excluded from this list.
Round/Player

1 Manning
1 Grossman
1 Manning
1 Roethlisberger
n/a Warner
2 Brees
1 Manning
1 Rodgers
1 Roethlisberger
1 Manning (Eli)
1 Flacco
2 Kaepernick
3 Wilson
1 Manning
3 Wilson
1 Manning
1 Newton
1 Ryan
3 Foles
1 Goff
1 Mahomes
2 Garoppolo
1 Mahomes
1 Stafford
1 Burrow
1 Mahomes
2 Hurts

Excluding Brady makes the list biased. A sixth-rounder was on four of the Super Bowl winners over that period that you included and went to three more.

The list shows the likelihood of finding that player in the later rounds (Brady and Warner) are slim. I'm just saying if that the list is incomplete by sidelining Brady.

 

[noshame]

I always laugh when people say. I don't want to waste the capital on a number one pic!

Yeah, so lets not try!!

You know how long it's been since I've gone into a game not worrying that, the quarterback may cost us a win?
Or
Thinking with our QB we've got a chance!

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Excluding Brady makes the list biased. A sixth-rounder was on four of the Super Bowl winners over that period that you included and went to three more.

The list shows the likelihood of finding that player in the later rounds (Brady and Warner) are slim. I'm just saying if that the list is incomplete by sidelining Brady.

Brady is the exception of all exceptions though. It is completely unrealistic to expect any QB to replicate Tom Brady. And then you have to ask yourself whether Brady would have been a 6th rounder if he was drafted in 2023? He had excellent leadership skills and tape at Michigan, things that weren’t as valued in 2000 as arm talent and conference dominance. NFL Teams back then probably took Michigan’s continued attempts to bench him as a negative sign rather than the mistake it was with Drew Hensons of all people.

A more accurate assessment is a 6th rounder did win SBs recently, therefore it is possible but implausible. A day 1 or 2 QB is plausible. At the end of the day you’re just playing the probability game.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Excluding Brady makes the list biased.

"In statistics, an outlier is a data point that differs significantly from other observations."- Wikipedia

Yes, an outlier data point was excluded to demonstrate a clear relationship.

 

[gimmesix]

Brady is the exception of all exceptions though. It is completely unrealistic to expect any QB to replicate Tom Brady. And then you have to ask yourself whether Brady would have been a 6th rounder if he was drafted in 2023? He had excellent leadership skills and tape at Michigan, things that weren’t as valued in 2000 as arm talent and conference dominance. NFL Teams back then probably took Michigan’s continued attempts to bench him as a negative sign rather than the mistake it was with Drew Hensons of all people.

A more accurate assessment is a 6th rounder did win SBs recently, therefore it is possible but implausible. A day 1 or 2 QB is plausible. At the end of the day you’re just playing the probability game.

I think the list that has been compiled shows that he and Warner are the exceptions. Still, leaving off one of the two exceptions takes this from being a comprehensive list to an agenda list.

 

[gimmesix]

"In statistics, an outlier is a data point that differs significantly from other observations."- Wikipedia

Yes, an outlier data point was excluded to demonstrate a clear relationship.

Warner was an outlier, too. Why not just leave him off as well?

The point is that your point would have been made even if you included Brady and it wouldn't have looked as much like you are trying to push an agenda. Two quarterbacks out of 28 doesn't change the probability, even if one has multiple appearances.

 

[KJJ]

well, that solves the problem. It's time to move up to a 1 or 2, 4 isn't going to get it done.

A lot of 1s and 2s don’t get it done either, try opening your eyes. That’s the problem with some of you, you think you just use a 1 or 2 on a QB and problem solved. It’s not that simple!

 

[KJJ]

There’s been a lot of QBs taken number one overall and only 8 won a Super Bowl. Fortunately, one of them was a QB we selected.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

There’s been a lot of QBs taken number one overall and only 8 won a Super Bowl. Fortunately, one of them was a QB we selected.

Aikman wasn't just a first round pick, he was taken #1 overall, and widely recognized as an elite talent. The last time Dallas won a championship was the last time it had a QB with those credentials.

Trevor Lawrence is a good example, also taken #1 overall. Who knows how his career will play out, but he is widely ranked above Dak in QB rankings already.

 

[KJJ]

Aikman wasn't just a first round pick, he was taken #1 overall, and widely recognized as an elite talent. The last time Dallas won a championship was the last time it had a QB with those credentials.

Trevor Lawrence is a good example, also taken #1 overall. Who knows how his career will play out, but he is widely ranked above Dak in QB rankings already.

The jury is still out on Trevor Lawrence. Although he showed improvement last season, he still hasn’t lived up to the hype he had coming out of college. He hasn’t been overly productive. Many rank him ahead of Dak because he had a better season in 2022, and he beat the Cowboys. Plus some are still enamored with him because of his draft status. I’m still not totally sold on him. If he’s going to be the player everyone thought he was going to be he needs to make a big jump this season.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Brady is the exception of all exceptions though. It is completely unrealistic to expect any QB to replicate Tom Brady. And then you have to ask yourself whether Brady would have been a 6th rounder if he was drafted in 2023? He had excellent leadership skills and tape at Michigan, things that weren’t as valued in 2000 as arm talent and conference dominance. NFL Teams back then probably took Michigan’s continued attempts to bench him as a negative sign rather than the mistake it was with Drew Hensons of all people.

A more accurate assessment is a 6th rounder did win SBs recently, therefore it is possible but implausible. A day 1 or 2 QB is plausible. At the end of the day you’re just playing the probability game.

Yeah but there are some bums on this list. Foles, Flacco, Eli, Grossman….those teams didn’t win a SB because they had first round talent at quarterback.

 

[nalam]

WHY?!? There is an undrafted guy there that went to two and won one and was the MVP...

Plus I'd take Dak over Grossman, Flacco, and Kaepernick all played in a SB

You mean kurt Warner? ( I dont think he is rated by our Forum high , I like him and like his analysis too )

 

[KJJ]

I don’t think Dak would be hated near as much if he was a first round pick. A lot of fans here discounted him his rookie year despite his solid play, because of his fourth round draft status. Fans would be a lot more forgiving had Dak been drafted in the first round. Fans aren’t near as quick to want to get rid of a QB when you invest a high pick on them.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

QB's who played in the Super-bowl, from 2007, and their draft round:
Brady, a 6th round pick, is excluded from this list.
Round/Player

1 Manning
1 Grossman
1 Manning
1 Roethlisberger
n/a Warner
2 Brees
1 Manning
1 Rodgers
1 Roethlisberger
1 Manning (Eli)
1 Flacco
2 Kaepernick
3 Wilson
1 Manning
3 Wilson
1 Manning
1 Newton
1 Ryan
3 Foles
1 Goff
1 Mahomes
2 Garoppolo
1 Mahomes
1 Stafford
1 Burrow
1 Mahomes
2 Hurts

This is pure coincidental if anything. Foles was a bum, Grossman was a bum, Eli was an inconsistent bum, Jimmy G is Jimmy G, Cam was Cam….there are some bad quarterbacks up there who made the SB not because of them playing like first round talent.

And I’m sure based on your post history this is an attempt to tell us we can’t win because Dak was a 4th rounder but it’s silly logic. Dak is just as talented as most of those guys who won. Peyton was not good in his last SB win, Grossman never was good….I can go on.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

To be fair, one does have to consider the "costs" involved when making strategic decisions.

As pointed out, lots of 1st round QB's are busts, so a team might miss out on a lot of Smiths, Lambs, or even Parsons in its potentially futile attempt at finding that elusive franchise QB.

There's a balance to be found, and the salary cap plays into this at some point too.

There does seem to be some requisite level of QB talent needed to win the big one.

Some of those guys up there were busts.

 

[pitt33]

Well a 1 or a 2 is not guarantee of course!
Pretty glaring statistics though.

Thanks for posting…

I posted on this very topic about a month ago.

FA’s and 4th rounders don’t cut the mustard.

Until this FO drafts one really high this team will forever be stuck in SB purgatory.

This is reality in the NFL.