Quality Wins- a look at the contenders

[percyhoward]

They lost to 5 other teams so therefore we are not the only reason they are a losing team.

I didn't say we were the only reason they aren't undefeated.

 

[Stash]

So far in the 2018 NFL season, there are clearly 18 teams that can be considered “contenders” based on records after 10 games. Of those teams,11 have winning records, 7 have an even .500 record going into the final stretch of the season.

What I want to do with this thread is look at the number wins each “contender” has against an opponent with a winning record. Call these quality wins.

Here are the teams with winning records ranked by how many wins they have against teams with winning records.

1. Saints (9-1 record) 3 wins against winning teams
2. Rams (9-1) 3 wins against winning teams
3. Patriots (7-3) 3 wins against winning teams
4. Chiefs (8-2) 2 wins against winning teams
5. Steelers (7-2-1) 1 win against winning teams
6. Bears (7-3) 1 win against winning teams
7. Texans (7-3) 1 win against winning teams
8. Commanders (6-4) 1 win against winning teams
9. Chargers (7-3) 0 wins against winning teams
10. Panthers (6-4) 0 wins against winning teams
11. Vikings (5-4-1) 0 wins against winning teams

It’s clear the Saints, Rams, and Pats have shown they can beat good teams. The teams that have 0 wins against winning teams may be silent “pretenders”.

Here are the teams at .500 that could be contenders, and how many wins against winning teams they have-

1. Ravens (5-5) 2 wins against winning teams
2. Titans (5-5) 2 wins against winning teams
3. Colts (5-5) 1 win against winning teams
4. Dolphins (5-5) 1 win against winning teams
5. Cowboys (5-5) 0 wins against winning teams
6. Seahawks (5-5) 0 wins against winning teams
7. Bengals (5-5) 0 wins against winning teams

Of these teams, the Ravens and Titans have 2 wins against winners.

What does all this mean? Well that can be debated, but it’s pretty clear that teams like the Saints, Rams and Pats are clearly a cut above. It’s also clear in the coming weeks, more teams will be eliminated from the contender list. The Cowboys have a chance to beat a “winning team” in the skins on Thursday. They have a chance oclimb this ladder.

More great stuff Bob, and black and white proof of an Inconvenient Truth that a lot of fans don't want to hear.

And this pattern also extends into last year as well.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys don't beat winning teams, and haven't for some time.

 

[Bobhaze]

Yeah. That's correct. When you play that team also makes a lot of difference as does urgency.

It was a tall order beating both Philly and Atlanta. Both of those teams were desperate for a win just like we were and we beat them on the road. That's HUGE.

I also think winning a road game against a desperate opponent is important. I would add that it’s difficult to win on the road against any division opponent. Many of our fans are already counting the Giants game (last game of the season) as a win. ALL NFL games are tough.

 

[percyhoward]

NFC playoff contenders ranked by difficulty of schedule already played. In parentheses is the rank of their future schedule.

LAR 6 (32)
SEA 7 (19)
DET 14 (8)
GB 16 (28)
NO 19 (17)
WAS 20 (31)
PHI 21 (10)
ATL 24 (13)
MIN 25 (7)
DAL 28 (21)
CAR 30 (9)
CHI 31 (12)

Rams have had the toughest schedule so far, Vikes have the toughest future schedule.

Bears have had the easiest schedule so far, Rams have the easiest future schedule.

(Injuries and teams resting starters always messes this up)


https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

 

[Bobhaze]

NFC playoff contenders ranked by difficulty of schedule already played. In parentheses is the rank of their future schedule.

LAR 6 (32)
SEA 7 (19)
DET 14 (8)
GB 16 (28)
NO 19 (17)
WAS 20 (31)
PHI 21 (10)
ATL 24 (13)
MIN 25 (7)
DAL 28 (21)
CAR 30 (9)
CHI 31 (12)

Rams have had the toughest schedule so far, Vikes have the toughest future schedule.

Bears have had the easiest schedule so far, Rams have the easiest future schedule.

(Injuries and teams resting starters always messes this up)


https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

Nice work PH.