Quarterback or Impact

[darthseinfeld]

The Dallas Cowboys have now ended their season and solidified their opening pick for the 2016 draft. It will be pick four. Many, myself included, believe that the opportunity to get a top quarterback prospect should not be squandered. Others insist that the thing to do is get a stud player who can contribute right away. The question I pose today is: is that player available in this draft?

Many point to Joey Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, and Vernon Hargreaves as players who immediately improve this team. I'm not sure I agree. The immediate impact of first-round pass rushers is typically limited. While cornerback is indeed a position where rookies can come in and have some success, it's far from a "sure thing" as we've seen with Morris Claiborne. There is risk associated with any position here, and quarterback is no more likely to bust than any other pick.

But there are some really impressive names in that number four slot. Names like Chris Doleman, Derrick Thomas, and Walter Payton reside alongside more recent picks likeCharles Woodson, Edgerrin James, and A.J. Green. The last two fourth overall picks wereSammy Watkins and Amari Cooper, both of whom acquitted themselves very well in their rookie years.

So I've decided to go through and determine the average approximate value for the rookie year of each number four pick since the merger to determine the immediate impact of those players. In contrast, I'm going to determine the average career approximate value of the quarterbacks taken in the top 5 picks (to get a larger sample size... only two were taken 4th overall in all that time). The idea here would be to see what kind of franchise quarterback we'd be passing on for what kind of immediate impact... not because that's fair, but because that's the specific argument I am addressing: that the Cowboys should not take a quarterback because they need an immediate impact player.

The average approximate value for the rookie season of a number 4 overall pick, since 1970, is 6.02. That would mean a player somewhat less impactful than Terrance Williams, who had an approximate value of 7 in each of his first two seasons and would likely have that again, or maybe slightly better as he comes off his most productive season in terms of both catches and yardage.

So to get that less than resounding immediate impact you give up a shot at... Dan Pastorini?

The average career AV of a quarterback picked in the first 5 slots of the draft is 62.3 which fits neatly between Dan Pastorini and Alex Smith(at 60 each) and Jeff George (at 65). Of course some of these picks like Carson Palmer, the aforementioned Smith, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck still have the opportunity to bring this average up considerably, but perhaps the bigger issue is that career AV might not be the best way to rate a quarterback. After all, Troy Aikman andVinny Testaverde have the exact same career AV at 97 and one is in the Hall of Fame and the other might not even be in the "Hall of Pretty Good". Cowboys fans would certainly get a chuckle at the idea that Drew Bledsoe andDonovan McNabb have better career AV than Aikman.

So the overall issue is that there's variance. You might get Derrick Thomas and his 10 rookie sacks, or you might get Desmond Howard and his complete lack of influence on the game. Likewise, you might get Terry Bradshaw and four rings, or Akili Smith and 5 TD, 13 INT, and a 52.8 career passer rating. But those who act as if the immediate impact of the 4th pick is any more assured than the career of a quarterback picked in the top 5 are simply looking slantwise at the whole thing. Like all top five picks, the Cowboys first pick of 2016 will be a boom, or a bust... we'll see.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2016...o-expect-when-youre-expecting-the-fourth-pick

 

[egn22]

I was initially all about drafting Lynch or Goff. Now id prefer to trade back and go BPA.
I'd sign RGIII as a backup who I feel brings equal risk as any of the guys coming out, and I'd address secondary, DT, RB and WR w picks.
Re-sign Hardy and RoMcClain

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

Goff or another position . I don't trust Lynch(Pre combine)

 

[Dhragon]

Quarterback is the biggest "Impact" position of them all - just usually not right away. No other position has the same impact as QB. So you'd both be getting the QB we need as well as the biggest impact player you can get ( for 2017 or 2018 ).

So Goff or Lynch it is!

 

[reddyuta]

are we really debating this after the season we went through? really?

 

[texbumthelife]

Quarterback is the biggest "Impact" position of them all - just usually not right away. No other position has the same impact as QB. So you'd both be getting the QB we need as well as the biggest impact player you can get ( for 2017 or 2018 ).

So Goff or Lynch it is!

Sit and wait three years to find out if your #4 pick is in fact, an impact player or a bust, or take a guy and know almost immediately--while devoting resources to a good backup? A QB at #4 is absolutely unnecessary. If he is BPA, fine, but I just don't see it.

 

[Cowboy4ever]

I think it will all depend on how the combine and other pro days etc go for the QBs. The Cowboys need a QB. Maybe not 4. If we can trade back, pick up some picks and get one fo the Goff, Lynch or Wentz that is the way to go. But if they are all projected to go by pick 12 or so.. you might have to take one at 4. And any of those 3 would be a better back up than RG3 or JFF so we wouldn't need to waste a space on that garbage.

 

[Dhragon]

Sit and wait three years to find out if your #4 pick is in fact, an impact player or a bust, or take a guy and know almost immediately--while devoting resources to a good backup? A QB at #4 is absolutely unnecessary. If he is BPA, fine, but I just don't see it.

At least there is a somewhat decent chance at getting a real solid QB that way and a somewhat realistic chance at an elite QB that way.

"Devoting resources to a good backup" will seldom get you better than "meh" at QB unless you win the lottery ( Brady/Romo ). So for people whose idea of a retirement plan is to play the lotto, then sure, go that route. But the better odds require a better investment.

 

[reddyuta]

If anybody thinks Romo can play for 3 more years then they have not been watching him.I literally cringe every time he gets hit because it might be his last NFL snap.

 

[texbumthelife]

If anybody thinks Romo can play for 3 more years then they have not been watching him.I literally cringe every time he gets hit because it might be his last NFL snap.

He broke his collarbone essentially once this year and it was horribly mismanaged by the team leading to the second break. This was the first season since 2010 he missed more than one game. That's not exactly an argument for being fragile. People are grossly overreacting. It is far from panic time with Romo. I am not saying don't take a QB if he is your BPA, but there is absolutely no need to reach for one.

 

[reddyuta]

He broke his collarbone essentially once this year and it was horribly mismanaged by the team leading to the second break. This was the first season since 2010 he missed more than one game. That's not exactly an argument for being fragile. People are grossly overreacting. It is far from panic time with Romo. I am not saying don't take a QB if he is your BPA, but there is absolutely no need to reach for one.

its hard to overreact with a 36 old QB with health problems.I also agree on your comment about reaching for a Qb.If the QB you pick at 4 is not in your top 5 then they should not pick him.

 

[Dhragon]

He broke his collarbone essentially once this year and it was horribly mismanaged by the team leading to the second break. This was the first season since 2010 he missed more than one game. That's not exactly an argument for being fragile. People are grossly overreacting. It is far from panic time with Romo. I am not saying don't take a QB if he is your BPA, but there is absolutely no need to reach for one.

Romo also has a bad back that needs constant managing. Add to that a collar bone that has been broken multiple times ( weakened I believe so more likely to break again in the future? - Believe that's why they were thinking about inserting a plate - but don't think they will ).

Romo is breaking down, at least physically, as do all people as they get older, especially when 300 pound men are constantly crashing into them. How much more can he take and remain effective/upright?

Romo might vey well last a few more years and be effective, but the odds are becoming more and more skewed against it.

 

[superonyx]

He broke his collarbone essentially once this year and it was horribly mismanaged by the team leading to the second break. This was the first season since 2010 he missed more than one game. That's not exactly an argument for being fragile. People are grossly overreacting. It is far from panic time with Romo. I am not saying don't take a QB if he is your BPA, but there is absolutely no need to reach for one.

I don't like the idea of drafting a backup QB with the 4th pick in the first round...I am for drafting a franchise QB with that pick. The problem is we don't know that either of these guys are going to end as the franchise QB or just another Backup QB. What is scary is holding on to a drafted guy like Lynch for 3-4 years just to find out he isn't a franchise QB after all...then it's back to the drawing board in 3-4 years and then we are set back 2 more waiting for the next one drafted shows what they are made of.

I don't want us reaching for a QB just because they are a QB...that could do more damage long term than not drafting one at all this year.

 

[texbumthelife]

its hard to overreact with a 36 old QB with health problems.I also agree on your comment about reaching for a Qb.If the QB you pick at 4 is not in your top 5 then they should not pick him.

That's the problem, he doesn't have "health problems". That's an overblown reaction to this season. As I said, other than this season he hasn't missed more than one game since 2010. If the team would have handled his collarbone the right way when he broke it seasons ago, and had the plate inserted, or the very least this season, then the second (and possibly the first) injury this season would have never happened. The guy is far from fragile, particularly if does elect to get the plate now which I think he will.

I know it's time to think about the future, but not at the sake of handicapping your present. This is a playoff team with a healthy Romo and Dez. If we can add an immediate contributor on either side of the ball, you have to do it. As I said though, this is all moot if the team grades a QB as BPA at 4. If that is the case, by all means pull the trigger.

 

[texbumthelife]

I don't like the idea of drafting a backup QB with the 4th pick in the first round...I am for drafting a franchise QB with that pick. The problem is we don't know that either of these guys are going to end as the franchise QB or just another Backup QB. What is scary is holding on to a drafted guy like Lynch for 3-4 years just to find out he isn't a franchise QB after all...then it's back to the drawing board in 3-4 years and then we are set back 2 more waiting for the next one drafted shows what they are made of.

I don't want us reaching for a QB just because they are a QB...that could do more damage long term than not drafting one at all this year.

This is exactly what I said a few posts ago.

 

[tm1119]

Pick the guy that is best for the franchise long term. Can't put it any simpler than that. This pick should be who will help this franchise win the most games in years 2018-2021 when you really think about it. A top 5 pick is bigger than winning in any 1 particular year in my opinion. Make the right pick and it could mean sustaining success for an extended period of time.

 

[texbumthelife]

Romo also has a bad back that needs constant managing. Add to that a collar bone that has been broken multiple times ( weakened I believe so more likely to break again in the future? - Believe that's why they were thinking about inserting a plate - but don't think they will ).

Romo is breaking down, at least physically, as do all people as they get older, especially when 300 pound men are constantly crashing into them. How much more can he take and remain effective/upright?

Romo might vey well last a few more years and be effective, but the odds are becoming more and more skewed against it.

I am not trying to be arrogant, but you do realize that just about every veteran player in the league is dealing with injuries that have to be constantly monitored and managed, right? If you think Romo is the only one getting cortisone shots, or the only QB for that matter, you're naive. That is all a part of the game.

 

[texbumthelife]

Pick the guy that is best for the franchise long term. Can't put it any simpler than that. This pick should be who will help this franchise win the most games in years 2018-2021 when you really think about it. A top 5 pick is bigger than winning in any 1 particular year in my opinion. Make the right pick and it could mean sustaining success for an extended period of time.

That is a horrible plan. This team was a catch away from the NFC championship last year and you want to plan for 2018-21? That is luncy. Witten will be gone. Dez will be in his twilight. We will have most likley declined in and/or lost offensive line talent. Lee gone. Hardy done. Essentially every player on this team who is playing at or close to their prime, will be done or gone.

You have to balance the present with the future. If you're always looking ahead, you are never going to know what you have right now.

 

[tm1119]

That is a horrible plan. This team was a catch away from the NFC championship last year and you want to plan for 2018-21? That is luncy. Witten will be gone. Dez will be in his twilight. We will have most likley declined in and/or lost offensive line talent. Lee gone. Hardy done. Essentially every player on this team who is playing at or close to their prime, will be done or gone.

You have to balance the present with the future. If you're always looking ahead, you are never going to know what you have right now.

1 pick, never said anything but a whole plan. And let's not beat around the bush, I'm talking about not passing on a potential franchise QB for a shot at winning with a window that is rapidly closing.

 

[texbumthelife]

1 pick, never said anything but a whole plan. And let's not beat around the bush, I'm talking about not passing on a potential franchise QB for a shot at winning with a window that is rapidly closing.

Like I said, if you think there is a potential franchise guy there, you take him. I just don't think either QB is worth the fourth pick and I would rather get someone who helps us now AND in the future, than hope a quarterback pans out in three years.