Quarterbacking is in steep decline

[erod]

so these issues weren't issues 20 years ago? I'm not disagreeing I'm just curious what we know here. I haven't thought much into it. thnx for this thread.

They've always been tough to find, but they used to show up much more "coached up" than now.

Today's college QBs are one-read guys throwing to predetermined receivers against overmatched defensive backs. The NFL isn't like that, so the transition is slow and painful.

Stanford, MICHIGAN STATE (kudos to perrykemp), and Alabama run pro style and a few others. But for the most part, it's the same offenses you see in high school.

 

[HoustonSucks]

I chuckle every time I hear it. Dallas needs to draft a quarterback. The Cowboys aren't grooming anybody to replace Romo. We need a good backup.

My question would be.......who? What teams have this strapping lad in waiting as a surefire "next" guy in their organization. Most starters in the NFL are lousy these days. The backups are even worse.

Fast forward five years when Peyton, Brees, Brady, and Romo are retired. Who will be the top five quarterbacks circa 2020?

Perhaps an aged Aaron Rodgers in his twilight, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, and Matt Ryan? Seriously? I realize others yet drafted could work their way into that fold, but are any of these young guys inspiring images as future all-time greats?

Factor in the complete lack of training colleges are providing quarterbacks for the NFL, and it boggles my mind why anybody would waste a first round pick on a quarterback these days. The most recent picks have been so gawd awful, that we ladle Andrew Luck with praise befitting of Johnny Unitas. The fact is, there is still much for Luck to learn, and he's an interception machine at times.

The nature of the QB position was already a crapshoot. Now, factor in this epidemic of one-read high school read-option offenses that have taken over college football, and the future doesn't look so bright.

Let's take a look at the last 10 years of quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds:

Jameis Winston ROOKIE
Marcus Marriotta ROOKIE
Garrett Grayson ROOKIE
Sean Mannion ROOKIE
Blake Bortles PENDING
Johnny Manziel BUST
Teddy Bridgewater PENDING
Derek Carr PENDING
Jimmy Garoppolo PENDING
EJ Manuel BUST
Geno Smith BUST
Mike Glennon BUST
Matt Barkley BUST
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin BUST
Ryan Tannehill PENDING
Brandon Weeden BUST
Brock Osweiler PENDING
Russell Wilson (Overrated, but OK)
Nick Foles LIKELY BUST
Cam Newton PENDING
Jake Locker BUST
Blaine Gabbert BUST
Christian Ponder BUST
Andy Dalton
Colin Kaepernick VIRTUAL BUST
Ryan Mallett BUST
Sam Bradford BUST
Tim Tebow BUST
Jimmy Clausen BUST
Colt McCoy BUST
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez BUST
Josh Freeman BUST
Pat White BUST
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Brian Brohm BUST
Chad Henne BUST
Kevin O'Connell BUST
JaMarcus Russell BUST
Brady Quinn BUST
Kevin Kolb BUST
John Beck BUST
Drew Stanton BUST
Trent Edwards BUST
Vince Young BUST
Matt Leinart BUST
Jay Cutler VIRTUAL BUST
Kellen Clemens BUST
Tavaris Jackson BUST
Charlie Whitehurst BUST

It isn't pretty. There are precious few quarterbacks on the planet capable of playing at an elite level in the NFL, and Dallas is lucky to have one. This notion that you just groom somebody up to be next sounds awesome, but it's comes with an incredibly high failure rate along with it.

These days, quarterbacks are going to take 4-5 years to prepare because of the simplistic college offensive schemes, so why spend a high draft pick on a guy that will become a free agent at the time he MIGHT be ready?

I believe the level of play at the quarterback position is going to take a steep decline in the coming years. The hope is, college recruits will start to demand pro style offenses to sign with schools because the money and draft position starts drying up in the NFL for quarterbacks.

Until then, it's best not to waste valuable draft picks on them unless unusually sure about a player. Rather, go get somebody in free agency when you need them. Let somebody else take the risk and spend the time developing them, and focus draft picks on more predictable commodities.

Thank you thank you for posting this. This is what I was trying to say in 2 threads and no one bothered to comment.

Blame the NCAA for this b/c that's the real problem.

I DO think we should take a flier in the 3rd Round, however.... I think there is so much undeveloped talent - you can find it in later rounds and take your time developing it.

 

[windward]

I have been hearing this off and on for the last 20 years. I'm very skeptical.

 

[Corso]

than why are folks making it seem like a new thing? or maybe something that is different than before?

I can answer for only myself. I feel the Fear.

 

[erod]

And anyone who says Russel Wilson is just "okay" doesn't know quarterbacking. The guy is a good/near great QB.

No, he's not. He's dreadful in the pocket if you contain him, just like Dallas' average defense did last year. The league is figuring him out.

However, for where he was drafted, he's a terrific find. He's certainly better than most, but hardly elite or threatening to be. He just plays for a team that had an unbelievable defense, a good offensive line and Marshawn Lynch. Now the o-line is iffy and the defensive coordinator is gone, and he's 2-4.

 

[perrykemp]

And anyone who says Russel Wilson is just "okay" doesn't know quarterbacking. The guy is a good/near great QB.

Career 98 QB rating despite having the worst collection of WRs in the league over the 4 years he has been QBing the Seahawks.

His Career QB rating is higher than Romo's.

Not saying he is a better QB than Romo, however, when Wilson throws the ball generally he throws it well.

 

[Vinnie2u]

Just because a Victoria's Secret model is going to say no... Won't keep me from trying to get at her...

 

[xwalker]

I chuckle every time I hear it. Dallas needs to draft a quarterback. The Cowboys aren't grooming anybody to replace Romo. We need a good backup.

My question would be.......who? What teams have this strapping lad in waiting as a surefire "next" guy in their organization. Most starters in the NFL are lousy these days. The backups are even worse.

Fast forward five years when Peyton, Brees, Brady, and Romo are retired. Who will be the top five quarterbacks circa 2020?

Perhaps an aged Aaron Rodgers in his twilight, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, and Matt Ryan? Seriously? I realize others yet drafted could work their way into that fold, but are any of these young guys inspiring images as future all-time greats?

Factor in the complete lack of training colleges are providing quarterbacks for the NFL, and it boggles my mind why anybody would waste a first round pick on a quarterback these days. The most recent picks have been so gawd awful, that we ladle Andrew Luck with praise befitting of Johnny Unitas. The fact is, there is still much for Luck to learn, and he's an interception machine at times.

The nature of the QB position was already a crapshoot. Now, factor in this epidemic of one-read high school read-option offenses that have taken over college football, and the future doesn't look so bright.

Let's take a look at the last 10 years of quarterbacks taken in the first three rounds:

Jameis Winston ROOKIE
Marcus Marriotta ROOKIE
Garrett Grayson ROOKIE
Sean Mannion ROOKIE
Blake Bortles PENDING
Johnny Manziel BUST
Teddy Bridgewater PENDING
Derek Carr PENDING
Jimmy Garoppolo PENDING
EJ Manuel BUST
Geno Smith BUST
Mike Glennon BUST
Matt Barkley BUST
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin BUST
Ryan Tannehill PENDING
Brandon Weeden BUST
Brock Osweiler PENDING
Russell Wilson (Overrated, but OK)
Nick Foles LIKELY BUST
Cam Newton PENDING
Jake Locker BUST
Blaine Gabbert BUST
Christian Ponder BUST
Andy Dalton
Colin Kaepernick VIRTUAL BUST
Ryan Mallett BUST
Sam Bradford BUST
Tim Tebow BUST
Jimmy Clausen BUST
Colt McCoy BUST
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez BUST
Josh Freeman BUST
Pat White BUST
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Brian Brohm BUST
Chad Henne BUST
Kevin O'Connell BUST
JaMarcus Russell BUST
Brady Quinn BUST
Kevin Kolb BUST
John Beck BUST
Drew Stanton BUST
Trent Edwards BUST
Vince Young BUST
Matt Leinart BUST
Jay Cutler VIRTUAL BUST
Kellen Clemens BUST
Tavaris Jackson BUST
Charlie Whitehurst BUST

It isn't pretty. There are precious few quarterbacks on the planet capable of playing at an elite level in the NFL, and Dallas is lucky to have one. This notion that you just groom somebody up to be next sounds awesome, but it's comes with an incredibly high failure rate along with it.

These days, quarterbacks are going to take 4-5 years to prepare because of the simplistic college offensive schemes, so why spend a high draft pick on a guy that will become a free agent at the time he MIGHT be ready?

I believe the level of play at the quarterback position is going to take a steep decline in the coming years. The hope is, college recruits will start to demand pro style offenses to sign with schools because the money and draft position starts drying up in the NFL for quarterbacks.

Until then, it's best not to waste valuable draft picks on them unless unusually sure about a player. Rather, go get somebody in free agency when you need them. Let somebody else take the risk and spend the time developing them, and focus draft picks on more predictable commodities.

I feel as if I've heard this same idea many times in the past.

It's similar to how each generation thinks that the younger generation represents the decline of society.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

History shows me you can win a Super Bowl with a mediocre QB about once every 20-25 years. I'd rather win 3 in 3 years, not in 75. We still need a QB. We can't opt out because the position is in decline. I'd rather we do our best to address it even if the position isn't what it used to be.

 

[xwalker]

Career 98 QB rating despite having the worst collection of WRs in the league over the 4 years he has been QBing the Seahawks.

His Career QB rating is higher than Romo's.

Not saying he is a better QB than Romo, however, when Wilson throws the ball generally he throws it well.

The issue will Wilson is that he is unlikely to be able to carry a team that does not have a really good defense and a very strong running game. He has been great for that team, but he likely would have been run out of the league if he had to play on some of the teams that Romo's played on.

 

[mattjames2010]

No, he's not. He's dreadful in the pocket if you contain him, just like Dallas' average defense did last year. The league is figuring him out.

However, for where he was drafted, he's a terrific find. He's certainly better than most, but hardly elite or threatening to be. He just plays for a team that had an unbelievable defense, a good offensive line and Marshawn Lynch. Now the o-line is iffy and the defensive coordinator is gone, and he's 2-4.

He's "dreadful" in the pocket? WHAT? You haven't watched him play.

The league is figuring him out? He has 7 TDs to 3 INTs, averaging 8 yards a completion, and has 251 yards rushing and 2 TDs.

And this league that has supposedly "figured him out" still couldn't stop him from getting to the Super Bowl last year. The Seahawks have their problems this year, but it's not Wilson.

 

[yimyammer]

. I remember Rodgers playing (I believe it was his 2nd year) the 2nd half of the Green Bay game the season we went 13-3. He didn't look very good.

I don't know what you were watching but he looked damned good (obviously not as good as he does now) and was playing better than Favre, I remember wishing Favre was still in the game and was glad we had built such a big lead.

 

[erod]

I have been hearing this off and on for the last 20 years. I'm very skeptical.

1993 quarterbacks

Troy Aikman
Jim Kelly
Brett Farve
Warren Moon
Steve Young
John Elway
Phil Simms
Drew Bledsoe
Boomer Esiason
Joe Montana
Vinny Testeverde
Jeff Hostetler
Steve Buerlein
Randall Cunningham
Steve DeBerg
Rodney Peete
Mark Rypien
Neil O'Donnell
Bobby Hebert

It doesn't look like that anymore.

 

[TX_Yid]

I thought the OPs point was that today we have Brees, Brady, Manning, Romo, Rodgers, Ryan.. all elite franchise QBs, a couple of them in the argument as the best to have ever played the game.

When they stop playing, are there ANY franchise elite QBs left?

 

[sureletsrace]

I tend to agree with you, @erod .

To play devils advocate though, there are probably several QBs in the bust status that could've been decent or above average quarterbacks had they maybe been drafted by a different team and coached by a proper coaching staff. Though, we don't see any coaching staff clamoring for these guys, so maybe that perspective is wrong.

I agree though that the future of the quarterback is either A) grim; or B) fundamentally changing.

Who knows? Maybe 10-20 years from now, quarterbacks will all be freak athletes who run as much as they pass, the RB position all but disappears, and the game is played completely different that the game we watch today.

I think one of the more interesting things about the sport of football is that it is constantly evolving. For better or worse, whether we like the change or not.

That's the thing about these more modern sports (broad term, historically speaking). We're watching them organically evolve.

Soccer has been around for thousands of years. It pretty much is what it is at this point.

American football, basketball, and baseball are babies in comparison to that. Imagine what those 3 sports will look like in 3,000 years. I'm sure they'd be unrecognizable to us.

 

[yimyammer]

1993 quarterbacks

Troy Aikman
Jim Kelly
Brett Farve
Warren Moon
Steve Young
John Elway
Phil Simms
Drew Bledsoe
Boomer Esiason
Joe Montana
Vinny Testeverde
Jeff Hostetler
Steve Buerlein
Randall Cunningham
Steve DeBerg
Rodney Peete
Mark Rypien
Neil O'Donnell
Bobby Hebert

It doesn't look like that anymore.

and the rules back then didn't protect QBs and receivers

QBs back then took a beating. I bet they'd all would have played for 5+ more years under the current rules

 

[Corso]

1993 quarterbacks

Troy Aikman
Jim Kelly
Brett Farve
Warren Moon
Steve Young
John Elway
Phil Simms
Drew Bledsoe
Boomer Esiason
Joe Montana
Vinny Testeverde
Jeff Hostetler
Steve Buerlein
Randall Cunningham
Steve DeBerg
Rodney Peete
Mark Rypien
Neil O'Donnell
Bobby Hebert

It doesn't look like that anymore.

Wow. Now that was an era of great QB'ing.

 

[erod]

He's "dreadful" in the pocket? WHAT? You haven't watched him play.

The league is figuring him out? He has 7 TDs to 3 INTs, averaging 8 yards a completion, and has 251 yards rushing and 2 TDs.

And this league that has supposedly "figured him out" still couldn't stop him from getting to the Super Bowl last year. The Seahawks have their problems this year, but it's not Wilson.

Did you watch the NFC championship game last year? Good gosh, he was awful. A final heave saved that day, and he cried like a baby afterward. Dallas completely shut him down.

He's OK, and if you let him run around, he can hurt you. But he's learning to stop that because he's getting his butt beaten in this year. He's not long for this NFL world if he doesn't learn to throw from the pocket like the big boys.

 

[wilfred]

Why would a team let a qb go into free agency if they are so rare? So there are not many good qbs but there is one for the Cowboys that is currently a backup? Most of the current great qbs were drafted by their current team, sound like drafting is the way to go. Yes you are rolling the dice, but that's what the draft is. I'm sure if you look at certain times in history, there was great qbs n bad qbs. Just like every position you win some and you lose some.

 

[xwalker]

Time to start getting ahead of the curve when it comes to scouting QB's.
I actually have little confidence in this team's ability to do so, given Jerry's very public man-crush on Manziel and almost picking him just a few, short years ago.

EDIT: and them sticking with Pretty-Arm Weeden, let alone signing him...

If the scouts were any good, they would have turned him off to Manziel way before the draft. They would have pointed out his obvious flaws to death, if they were any good.

No. I am beginning to feel the slow creep of sheer fright when it comes to the QB position in the next few years.
Romo was luck to begin with.

Our next star QB may be also, with multiple years of pain in-between.

I hope not.

I really really hope that the Cowboys do a breakdown of all the drafted QBs and determine the causes of failure.
How many failed due to:
1. Mental deficiencies.
2. Lack of accuracy.
3. Lack of arm strength.
4. Lack of pocket awareness.
5. Personality issues.
6. Work ethic.


I think a review after the fact would show that with many of them the signs were there and people just ignored them for various reasons.

For example, people ignored that the RB Abdullah has one of the worst fumble rates ever for college RBs in this past draft. Now he has fumbled once every 16 touches in the NFL which is even worse than his 1 in 35 fumble rate in college.

The good thing for the Cowboys is that they'll have more than 1 opportunity to look for a QB. I would hate to be a team like Tampa this year that had to take a QB and convinced themselves that Winston was the guy. Sure, he might turn out great, but I just would not draft a guy with a troubled background to play QB in the NFL unless it was with a lower round pick. There is just too much pressure on NFL QBs and at some point the ones with character issues will probably have problems.

The bad thing for the Cowboys is that they likely won't have opportunities to look at top 10 QBs until Romo is gone an entire season. It's not too often that an Aaron Rodgers is there at #24; although, maybe Bridgewater will be the real deal.