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The Grand Poobah
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Pick 28: And the Winner Is…
By Rafael Vela
I’m up. 27 players have gone before me, in this order:
16) CARDINALS - Mike Jenkins (CB, South Florida)
17) VIKINGS - Leodis McKelvin (CB, Troy)
18) TEXANS - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB, Tennessee St)
19) EAGLES - Kenny Phillips (S, Miami)
20) BUCS - Aqib Talib (CB, Kansas)
21) Commanders - Kentwan Balmer (DL, North Carolina)
22) COWBOYS - Jonathan Stewart (RB, Oregon)
23) STEELERS - Quentin Groves (DE, Auburn)
24) TITANS - DeSean Jackson (WR, California)
25) SEAHAWKS - Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville)
26) JAGUARS - Philip Merling (DE, Clemson)
27) CHARGERS - Gosder Cherilus (OT, Boston College)
Who to pick? It’s been a struggle, because this year there’s less consensus on players beyond the top six to eight than I’ve ever seen. Only you move beyond the Longs, McFadden, Dorsey, Ryan, Gholston and Ellis things start to fluctuate — heavily.
The consensus falls apart even more at 28. But I’m going to use some sleuthing to winnow the list down. Here are my tools. But first, a digression.
I think that given this board, the real Cowboys would be trying with all their might to deal down into the early 2nd and get an extra pick. The question is with whom? Brian Brohm is off the board. The Falcons took Matt Ryan at three so that eliminates a major trade partner for a guy like Michigan QB Chad Henne. Miami might be a partner at 32, but only if Dallas could produce another team looking to leapfrog the Dolphins. Might the Chiefs at 36 or the Ravens at 39 be looking to jump?
It’s food for thought but I have to make a pick. Back to my decision:
I. A consensus board. The closest tools I have to an actual NFL consensus draft board are Rick Gosselin’s mock drafts. Gosselins has peerless sources and gets the best hard data out of war rooms. His second draft wavered a bit because he was trying to fit players to team needs. His first mock, on the 11th, gives the best glimpse thus far into the process. Eliminating the players who have already been taken from my NBC draft, these are the best available suspects:
In any case I’m going with these four. Davis does not fit into the latest mock, which makes me wonder if there’s more variance in his grades or if he’s just not a good fit for the teams in the last half dozen picks of round one? He’s not a 1st round good fit for Dallas, with Jason Witten in the lineup.
II. That said, the Cowboys like all five players and had all of them in for visits last week. Given that they’re all cheek-to-jowl in Gosselin’s ratings, I’m also guessing their grades are roughly equivalent, which means Dallas would be justified in prioritizing needs here.
That narrows the list to Hardy, Sweed and Kelly, in my opinion. If Dallas went strictly off its board, it could take Mayo, but would likely trade down first. And the Cowboys would have interested parties, since lots of teams like Mayo. But I can’t trade. so Mayo will stay on the board for somebody else.
III. But what about the cornerbacks, you’re asking? What about Antoine Cason? Or Brandon Flowers? I’m going to offer three bits of information to discount them here:
Add it up and the DBs slide to round two. That doesn’t mean the Cowboys don’t like Cason, Flowers, Porter and Godfrey. They invited all four of these guys to Valley Ranch. And I’ve read in a couple of places that they’re quietly excited about Johnson, who could be a dark horse pick if they move down into early round two. But unless the Cowboys are hiding Johnson in plain sight, I would not rate these guys at 28.
So I’m down to Hardy and Sweed. I think Kelly’s medical question marks — how bad are his knees? — and his poor 40 times have dropped him. That doesn’t make the choice easier. Both Hardy and Sweed have question marks. Hardy has had monster games but he’s also had invisible games. He’s also had some off-field problems.
Sweed was the top rated WR entering the season but a wrist injury shut him down early. I’ve spoken to at least one scout who says wrists are huge red flags at Sweed’s position, because they can become chronic problems.
Which problem do I downplay or emphasize? Both of these guys have the size and athleticism to become #1 receivers. And I’m not going to use Dallas’ lust for the ‘09 title to over-think this. The point is to get the best player for the long term. I have not heard any more on Sweed’s wrist so I’m going to assume he checks out.
Going with that, I’m giving him the nod. When they’re 100% I think he’s the better player.
So, with the 28th pick, because I have to make the 28th pick, I’m selecting Texas WR Limas Sweed for the Cowboys
By Rafael Vela
I’m up. 27 players have gone before me, in this order:
16) CARDINALS - Mike Jenkins (CB, South Florida)
17) VIKINGS - Leodis McKelvin (CB, Troy)
18) TEXANS - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB, Tennessee St)
19) EAGLES - Kenny Phillips (S, Miami)
20) BUCS - Aqib Talib (CB, Kansas)
21) Commanders - Kentwan Balmer (DL, North Carolina)
22) COWBOYS - Jonathan Stewart (RB, Oregon)
23) STEELERS - Quentin Groves (DE, Auburn)
24) TITANS - DeSean Jackson (WR, California)
25) SEAHAWKS - Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville)
26) JAGUARS - Philip Merling (DE, Clemson)
27) CHARGERS - Gosder Cherilus (OT, Boston College)
Who to pick? It’s been a struggle, because this year there’s less consensus on players beyond the top six to eight than I’ve ever seen. Only you move beyond the Longs, McFadden, Dorsey, Ryan, Gholston and Ellis things start to fluctuate — heavily.
The consensus falls apart even more at 28. But I’m going to use some sleuthing to winnow the list down. Here are my tools. But first, a digression.
I think that given this board, the real Cowboys would be trying with all their might to deal down into the early 2nd and get an extra pick. The question is with whom? Brian Brohm is off the board. The Falcons took Matt Ryan at three so that eliminates a major trade partner for a guy like Michigan QB Chad Henne. Miami might be a partner at 32, but only if Dallas could produce another team looking to leapfrog the Dolphins. Might the Chiefs at 36 or the Ravens at 39 be looking to jump?
It’s food for thought but I have to make a pick. Back to my decision:
I. A consensus board. The closest tools I have to an actual NFL consensus draft board are Rick Gosselin’s mock drafts. Gosselins has peerless sources and gets the best hard data out of war rooms. His second draft wavered a bit because he was trying to fit players to team needs. His first mock, on the 11th, gives the best glimpse thus far into the process. Eliminating the players who have already been taken from my NBC draft, these are the best available suspects:
- Fred Davis, TE, USC
- Jerod Mayo, LB, Tenn.
- James Hardy, WR, Indiana
- Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
In any case I’m going with these four. Davis does not fit into the latest mock, which makes me wonder if there’s more variance in his grades or if he’s just not a good fit for the teams in the last half dozen picks of round one? He’s not a 1st round good fit for Dallas, with Jason Witten in the lineup.
II. That said, the Cowboys like all five players and had all of them in for visits last week. Given that they’re all cheek-to-jowl in Gosselin’s ratings, I’m also guessing their grades are roughly equivalent, which means Dallas would be justified in prioritizing needs here.
That narrows the list to Hardy, Sweed and Kelly, in my opinion. If Dallas went strictly off its board, it could take Mayo, but would likely trade down first. And the Cowboys would have interested parties, since lots of teams like Mayo. But I can’t trade. so Mayo will stay on the board for somebody else.
III. But what about the cornerbacks, you’re asking? What about Antoine Cason? Or Brandon Flowers? I’m going to offer three bits of information to discount them here:
- A good source, who has spoken to people in the Dallas war room has told me the team will not force a pick at that spot for a WR or CB at 28 if they have to stay and pick.
- Another source told me he had heard a mock draft on Dallas radio where the Cowboys’ selector took Felix Jones at 22 and Penn State CB Justin King at 28. He told me, “Felix Jones is okay at the first spot but if the Penn State corner is the best they can do at 28, then Jerry should trade up for McFadden, ’cause he can do better.” In other words, he’s not clear that King is good value at 28.
- You’ve no doubt seen photos of the dry erase board from the Dallas coaches room that had a list of draftable DBs on it. It appeared on Giants’ and Eagles’ blogs a few weeks ago. People strained their eyeballs to try to figure out who was on it. The top five names were the four big DBs — Rogers-Cromartie, McKelvin, Jenkins, Talib — and safety Kenny Phillips. After them came Iowa DB Charles Godfrey and Arkansas State safety Tyrell Johnson. Who’s missing? Cason, Flowers, King and Tracy Porter.
Add it up and the DBs slide to round two. That doesn’t mean the Cowboys don’t like Cason, Flowers, Porter and Godfrey. They invited all four of these guys to Valley Ranch. And I’ve read in a couple of places that they’re quietly excited about Johnson, who could be a dark horse pick if they move down into early round two. But unless the Cowboys are hiding Johnson in plain sight, I would not rate these guys at 28.
So I’m down to Hardy and Sweed. I think Kelly’s medical question marks — how bad are his knees? — and his poor 40 times have dropped him. That doesn’t make the choice easier. Both Hardy and Sweed have question marks. Hardy has had monster games but he’s also had invisible games. He’s also had some off-field problems.
Sweed was the top rated WR entering the season but a wrist injury shut him down early. I’ve spoken to at least one scout who says wrists are huge red flags at Sweed’s position, because they can become chronic problems.
Which problem do I downplay or emphasize? Both of these guys have the size and athleticism to become #1 receivers. And I’m not going to use Dallas’ lust for the ‘09 title to over-think this. The point is to get the best player for the long term. I have not heard any more on Sweed’s wrist so I’m going to assume he checks out.
Going with that, I’m giving him the nod. When they’re 100% I think he’s the better player.
So, with the 28th pick, because I have to make the 28th pick, I’m selecting Texas WR Limas Sweed for the Cowboys
