Random Draft Considerations

[Verdict]

If you pick by you're board, you have a good chance at getting an excellent player. If you pick by need, you have a good chance at getting an adequate player. If you are very lucky, value and need add up. But always choose value over need

Im a firm believer we can build a strong defense in day 2 and 3 of drafts. Ive echoed your statement on Tapper. No guarantee a 1st round DE would beat Tapper. Collins and Brown outplayed players last year draft much higher

We have drafted BPA and it has really served us well. There have been lots of *****ing and moaning about it here, but it has worked out well.

We waited until the 3rd round last year to take a defensive lineman and we got great value with that pick. Zeke was great value. Jaylon was superior value too, but involved risk.

Really our entire draft class was a hell of a draft class based on what we have seen so far. I think we will continue to follow that philosohy and continue to stack up depth.

If we drafted Mahomes at #28 I wouldn't have any problem with it if the grade is there. Same with Mixon. Same if it is a receiver. If we added another Dak or Zeke then it was a great pick, regardless of team needs.

 

[gmoney112]

If Barnett falls, yes. I don't think he will fall. If he doesn't fall then DE won't be BPA most likely. It will be a reach at DE. Garrett and Solomon will almost certainly be gone barring a real divergence in opinion from what we have seen so far.

I was leaning more towards DB. But yeah, Barnett and I've seen Taco all over the place. McKinley too. We don't *really* know how teams view these guys.

There's going to be a ton of good DB's there though. The tail end of the first is just weak in basically everything else. It's easy to see the value at 28 is highly likely going to be a DE or DB. Good for us.

 

[Verdict]

A guess as far as DE is Barnett would likely be at the top of the board if he was there. McKinley could possibly. Barnett seems consensus, with McKinley its how much you like him.

I think the most likely best value at 28 would be Barnett, Peppers, or Mike Williams.

If Barnett falls they would probably sprint to the podium. He could go as high as top 10 in this draft. I think he goes even before he got within the reasonable range of a trade up.

 

[Verdict]

I was leaning more towards DB. But yeah, Barnett and I've seen Taco all over the place. McKinley too. We don't *really* know how teams view these guys.

There's going to be a ton of good DB's there though. The tail end of the first is just weak in basically everything else. It's easy to see the value at 28 is highly likely going to be a DE or DB. Good for us.

If you speak about DBs generally, yeah I agree that there is a better chance of that happening. But I think there is going to be a hell of a run on DBs above up and corners in particular in this draft.

I think the best chance is at safety matching BPA at 28. The problem with safety is that the grades are all over the board on the guys likely to be in our range at 28. If we are lucky enough to really like a safety and other people having different tastes that's a chance.

 

[xwalker]

I think at 28, it's BPA in an area of need. For us, it should be the best available DE, CB, or S. Further consideration should be given regarding the depth at that position. Follow this process for the first 2 rounds, and you can switch back to a natural BPA philosophy after that, which is what the Cowboys normally do after Rd 5

That sounds good, but if you review draft history over the past 25 years, taking the actual BPA would have been the best bet in most situations.

Why take LeSean McCoy when you have Felix and Barber? They had McCoy rated as a 1st round pick, but passed on him in the 2nd and traded down. It only took about 2 years to see what a huge mistake that was turning into.

Draft great players and you'll never regret it.

 

[Verdict]

I was leaning more towards DB. But yeah, Barnett and I've seen Taco all over the place. McKinley too. We don't *really* know how teams view these guys.

There's going to be a ton of good DB's there though. The tail end of the first is just weak in basically everything else. It's easy to see the value at 28 is highly likely going to be a DE or DB. Good for us.

Yes, one of the two (Taco or Tak) may be available when we pick but we will probably not have our pick of both and neither really seem to be concensus right ends. Tak seems to be really all over the board. I think Taco will be gone before we pick and I'm not sold that won't be a good thing for us.

 

[Verdict]

That sounds good, but if you review draft history over the past 25 years, taking the actual BPA would have been the best bet in most situations.

Why take LeSean McCoy when you have Felix and Barber? They had McCoy rated as a 1st round pick, but passed on him in the 2nd and traded down. It only took about 2 years to see what a huge mistake that was turning into.

Draft great players and you'll never regret it.

I agree totally. Drafting BPA at a position of need got us Almost Anthony Spencer, Ebeneezer Ekuban and Greg Ellis instead of hall of gamer Randy Moss.

 

[gmoney112]

That sounds good, but if you review draft history over the past 25 years, taking the actual BPA would have been the best bet in most situations.

Why take LeSean McCoy when you have Felix and Barber? They had McCoy rated as a 1st round pick, but passed on him in the 2nd and traded down. It only took about 2 years to see what a huge mistake that was turning into.

Draft great players and you'll never regret it.

Yeah, i'm just saying, looking at this draft, where are these BPA coming from that aren't on defense?

You have like 3 first round OL, 3 first round WR (a huge question mark in Ross' health), 2 first round TE's. Some RB's.

I literally have no idea who we'd take on offense that'd be BPA there because I don't see any of them there. Maybe if you had a legit grade on Zay Jones or something. But just looking at the draft, I think it's highly, highly likely it'll be defense as BPA.

If we're actually having a convo about who's really going to be there.

 

[Verdict]

Yeah, i'm just saying, looking at this draft, where are these BPA coming from that aren't on defense?

You have like 3 first round OL, 3 first round WR (a huge question mark in Ross' health), 2 first round TE's. Some RB's.

I literally have no idea who we'd take on offense that'd be BPA there because I don't see any of them there. Maybe if you had a legit grade on Zay Jones or something. But just looking at the draft, I think it's highly, highly likely it'll be defense as BPA.

If we're actually having a convo about who's really going to be there.

Mixon, Mahomes, Howard, NJoku, possibly RT maybe Ross? There's 6 right off the bat.

 

[DFWJC]

I assume you guys know that BPA is not a singular/absolute thing.
They group these guys in tiers even if there is a list.

Even he is in the top remaining tier when we pick at 28, there is no way they are taking Mahomes at 28, for example.
There is no chance of that whatsoever.

Take another player in the same tier at a position that makes more sense, or trade down if he's the last one left in that tier, or select him for another team in an approved trade.

Like I said, Im sure already know it but maybe someone didnt.
Drafting 101

 

[gmoney112]

Mixon, Mahomes, Howard, NJoku, possibly RT maybe Ross? There's 6 right off the bat.

Well see, my point implied that you looked at it realistically, and I already addressed the TE's and Tackles.

 

[Verdict]

Well see, my point implied that you looked at it realistically, and I already addressed the TE's and Tackles.

Well it's all really opinion isn't it? Many said Zeke wouldn't be taken at #4 overall last year. They were, of course, wrong.

Who would have predicted Jaylon Smith in the second round? The Cowboys are likely to pick someone you don't expect them to. There are times when we take someone you would expect like Zack Martin. But more often than not they don't.

It really all depends on the grades. If they think Mahomes is all that and a bag of chips (I'm not saying we do) and he is clearly Dak 2.0 then why wouldn't we take him. It would be foolish not to unless we traded back.

If we could draft another Zeke with pick 28 then do it. It's not that hard to fathom.

I do not believe the fact that we have Zeke would deter us from taking another RB if they are the clearly the best player available.

 

[Verdict]

I assume you guys know that BPA is not a singular/absolute thing.
They group these guys in tiers even if there is a list.

Even he is in the top remaining tier when we pick at 28, there is no way they are taking Mahomes at 28, for example.
There is no chance of that whatsoever.

Take another player in the same tier at a position that makes more sense, or trade down if he's the last one left in that tier, or select him for another team in an approved trade.

Like I said, Im sure already know it but maybe someone didnt.
Drafting 101

I think it is a hell of a lot closer to reality now than reaching for need. At least that seems to be the way we are going.

When we have drafted the best player on our board it has more often than not been a hit and a really good hit. When we have reached for need we have drafted merely a serviceable player at best and a bust at worst.

 

[Verdict]

I give Barnett about a 30% chance. A run on CB's and overdrafting QB's could potentially push him. He could be a guy teams may pick up the phone on if he hits the 20's, but teams my also not want to trade up in a strong draft

I like the way you think, but I think the odds of him falling all the way to us are much lower than that. I think he has a better chance of going top 10 than falling all the way to us. I think the 30 percent odds you gave would be more likely a good percentage of getting him to fall close enough to use a minor trade up.

 

[Verdict]

That sounds good, but if you review draft history over the past 25 years, taking the actual BPA would have been the best bet in most situations.

Why take LeSean McCoy when you have Felix and Barber? They had McCoy rated as a 1st round pick, but passed on him in the 2nd and traded down. It only took about 2 years to see what a huge mistake that was turning into.

Draft great players and you'll never regret it.

When we stuck to our board we have drafted really well.

 

[DFWJC]

I think it is a hell of a lot closer to reality now than reaching for need. At least that seems to be the way we are going.

When we have drafted the best player on our board it has more often than not been a hit and a really good hit. When we have reached for need we have drafted merely a serviceable player at best and a bust at worst.

Agree. Never reach for need.
That is proper drafting 101 as well

My point is that if we have a tier with 4-5 guys graded in the 88-89 range (there's rarely just a single player clearly way ahead of everyone remaining)...there is rarely a true "top of our board".
There is small group to choose from.
You, of course take the more useful player.
That IS how we have been drafting

If you're at the end of that tier group, as they've all been taken that are worth drafting at your current spot, or the only one left is at a position of less need....you then trade down.
Exactly like when we traded down the Frederick year.

But yes, avoid reaching

 

[AsthmaField]

Mixon, Mahomes, Howard, NJoku, possibly RT maybe Ross? There's 6 right off the bat.

Bro, I’m with you on all of this… but Dallas isn’t going to pick Mixon or Mahomes.

However, if a guy like Corey Davis or Ross is there and the team has them rated way high and they are BPA by a long shot, I’m all for it. OJ Howard? Go right ahead. Even one of the OL, I’d say do it.

But not Mixon or Mahomes. The team won’t take a RB a year after taking Elliott at 4 and even if they did, it’d be McCaffery or Cook. That guy would have to be rated crazy high and clean as a whistle (which might cut out Cook). Mixon isn’t that guy. He’s not good enough to make them do something like take a RB a year after drafting Elliott.

I just can’t see them liking any QB enough to take him round 1 this year.

Other than those two guys though, I’m all for the team going BPA, regardless of which side of the ball they play on.

Having said all of that, the BPA will probably be a defensive guy at 28.

 

[NeonNinja]

Mixon at 28 would be a disaster, IMO.

 

[LocimusPrime]

Just a question. If the draft is supposed to be deep at DL ( idk that it is just repeating what I've seen on this thread) and we picked Charles tapper w pick #101 last year, how could our pick at #28 not be a better player. In theory shouldn't he be better than tapper

 

[AsthmaField]

Agree. Never reach for need.
That is proper drafting 101 as well

My point is that if we have a tier with 4-5 guys graded in the 88-89 range (there's rarely just a single player clearly way ahead of everyone remaining)...there is rarely a true "top of our board".
There is small group to choose from.
You, of course take the more useful player.
That IS how we have been drafting

If you're at the end of that tier group, as they've all been taken that are worth drafting at your current spot, or the only one left is at a position of less need....you then trade down.
Exactly like when we traded down the Frederick year.

But yes, avoid reaching

I agree. If they have a guy rated BPA who they don’t really need (say QB) then they very likely will trade to turn that pick for further draft capital.

They’ll have to really love an offensive guy to take him at 28 IMO. Like if they think Ross is a faster, smarter D Jackson and simply want him on their team. And I’d be fine with that.

I also wouldn’t mind a trade back either though.