Ranking the Roster

[Stash]

We don't know that the Cowboys would have selected Rawls with the Swaim pick.

Swaim might be a unknown to the fans but he isn't to the team. Exactly what did you expect to see from him last year?

Anything really would have sufficed. I don't think it's asking too much of a guy to contribute at all during the first of his four year contract.

Seeing Seattle fill a need at running back with a guy we wanted while getting zero from the TE we drafted instead is disappointing and frustrating.

 

[Verdict]

II think it is interesting that we traded away a pick to move UP for Swaim. So either they really thought highly of him, or they felt like they needed to move up for him to fill a hole, or, potentially both.

We have no idea what Swaim can do. It is likely that the Cowboys have considered letting one or more of the tight ends up the depth chart go. They resigned Hanna, so apparently they are satisfied with him. Could they be contemplating letting Escobar go THIS year, or potentially cutting Witten due to salary cap reasons? Sometimes you don't see these things coming until after it has already happened.

 

[CowboyRoy]

This was a two-parter. The other part is that the only real difference in the "dirty yards" department was at the goal line. Here are the conversion rates for 3rd or 4th down, 1-2 yards to go, from anywhere on the field:

2014 Murray 19 of 26 (73.1%)
2015 McFadden 13 of 17 (76.5%)

Add in runs from the 1- or 2-yard line on 1st or 2nd down (which are also short-yardage plays), and it looks like this:

2014 Murray 25 of 32 (78.1%)
2015 McFadden 15 of 21 (71.4%)

In 2014, we had a QB and a #1 WR who were able to exploit defenses near the goal line when those defenses cheated toward the run. We did not have this goal-line passing threat in 2015, and when defenses figured that out, it had a huge effect on how often and how well we ran near the goal line.

from 5-yard line or closer
% of runs resulting in TD
2014 (all 16 games) 9 of 17 (53%)
2015 (games 1-6) 5 of 7 (72%)
2015 (games 7-16) 0 of 3 (0%)

The other part is that the only real difference in the "dirty yards" department was at the goal line

Is there any bigger difference than Goal line? And there was quite a difference in the success or lack there of of McFadden in the first half of the year and the 2nd half. When we really needed him in the first half, where was he? His typical 3 yards per carry lifetime average? IT wasnt until we were already what 2-6 by the time he got going? Season was already lost. So Mcfadden had a handful of quality runs in some meaningless games. And more than likely, we were behind in the score and the other team was playing lax or in nickel to protect a lead. So he busted a few longer runs to over inflate his stats.

I can tell you that I am not impressed in the least by McFadden. The goal line and TD numbers being the most important were paltry.

 

[Verdict]

The other part is that the only real difference in the "dirty yards" department was at the goal line
Is there any bigger difference than Goal line? And there was quite a difference in the success or lack there of of McFadden in the first half of the year and the 2nd half. When we really needed him in the first half, where was he? His typical 3 yards per carry lifetime average? IT wasnt until we were already what 2-6 by the time he got going? Season was already lost. So Mcfadden had a handful of quality runs in some meaningless games. And more than likely, we were behind in the score and the other team was playing lax or in nickel to protect a lead. So he busted a few longer runs to over inflate his stats.

I can tell you that I am not impressed in the least by McFadden. The goal line and TD numbers being the most important were paltry.

I personally thought McFadden did ok as Murray's replacement for the money. If we hadn't stubbornly refused to start him instead of going with the Wack Randle he would have been even ore production.

With that being said, I could see us drafting one of the top 3 or 4 guys this year and someone may become the odd man out. In this case, it might be McFadden. We probably wouldn't keep 4 running backs on the active roster, and I don't think we would cut Dunbar since he is poison on 3rd down. I think McFadden and Morris would be fighting for the other spot. But I'm not sure that Morris can beat out McFadden, because of the passing game, and blitz pickup responsibilities.

 

[percyhoward]

The other part is that the only real difference in the "dirty yards" department was at the goal line
Is there any bigger difference than Goal line?

I'm assuming you didn't understand the point I made there. McFadden was a better short-yardage runner in 2015 than Murray was in 2014, unless you include 1st-and 2nd-down runs from the 1- or 2-yard line. I'm not trying to say that the goal line runs are less important, because that would be stupid.

My point is that if Murray had really been better in short yardage than McFadden, we'd have seen similar results away from the goal line as well. We don't. Murray's goal-line dominance over McFadden doesn't transfer to anywhere else on the field in short yardage. That's a clue that the RB probably isn't the difference -- something else is.

In 2014, we had a QB and a #1 WR who were able to exploit defenses near the goal line when those defenses cheated toward the run. We did not have this goal-line passing threat in 2015, and when defenses figured that out, it had a huge effect on how often and how well we ran near the goal line.

from 5-yard line or closer
% of runs resulting in TD
2014 (all 16 games) 9 of 17 (53%)
2015 (games 1-6) 5 of 7 (72%)
2015 (games 7-16) 0 of 3 (0%)

We had no problem around the goal line during the first 6 games of the season, and in fact were much improved over 2014. Then when defenses starting loading up on the run, we did nothing, and practically stopped trying.

I think it's more about the passing threat (or lack of same) and the OL, than about the name of the RB running behind it.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I personally thought McFadden did ok as Murray's replacement for the money. If we hadn't stubbornly refused to start him instead of going with the Wack Randle he would have been even ore production.

With that being said, I could see us drafting one of the top 3 or 4 guys this year and someone may become the odd man out. In this case, it might be McFadden. We probably wouldn't keep 4 running backs on the active roster, and I don't think we would cut Dunbar since he is poison on 3rd down. I think McFadden and Morris would be fighting for the other spot. But I'm not sure that Morris can beat out McFadden, because of the passing game, and blitz pickup responsibilities.

I agree that McFadden did "ok". I think it proved what many have said. That you put any decent back behind this Oline, give him plenty of carries, and he will do well. But that is not what we need in my opinion. To get the max benefit of our Oline, I think we both agree that we need a true stud.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I'm assuming you didn't understand the point I made there. McFadden was a better short-yardage runner in 2015 than Murray was in 2014, unless you include 1st-and 2nd-down runs from the 1- or 2-yard line. I'm not trying to say that the goal line runs are less important, because that would be stupid.

My point is that if Murray had really been better in short yardage than McFadden, we'd have seen similar results away from the goal line as well. We don't. Murray's goal-line dominance over McFadden doesn't transfer to anywhere else on the field in short yardage. That's a clue that the RB probably isn't the difference -- something else is.

In 2014, we had a QB and a #1 WR who were able to exploit defenses near the goal line when those defenses cheated toward the run. We did not have this goal-line passing threat in 2015, and when defenses figured that out, it had a huge effect on how often and how well we ran near the goal line.

from 5-yard line or closer
% of runs resulting in TD
2014 (all 16 games) 9 of 17 (53%)
2015 (games 1-6) 5 of 7 (72%)
2015 (games 7-16) 0 of 3 (0%)

We had no problem around the goal line during the first 6 games of the season, and in fact were much improved over 2014. Then when defenses starting loading up on the run, we did nothing, and practically stopped trying.

I think it's more about the passing threat (or lack of same) and the OL, than about the name of the RB running behind it.

yah..........you keep talking about selected, isolated stats. I VERY much dont like McFadden. Not a difference maker in my opinion. I also wasnt a big Murray fan. Both RB's are too injury prone for my taste. For my money, I would take Murray all day long over McFadden. But give me someone better than either one. Im not really understanding your "the passing game needs more help" angle. What does that have to do with anything? Are you saying we should use our first round pick on a WR instead of a back? I like a run first offense. That is just me. 2014 was just fine by me. But give me an even better RB that Murray.

 

[percyhoward]

yah..........you keep talking about selected, isolated stats.

What does that even mean? "Dirty yards" means short-yardage runs. I'm talking about short-yardage runs. All of them.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I'm assuming you didn't understand the point I made there. McFadden was a better short-yardage runner in 2015 than Murray was in 2014, unless you include 1st-and 2nd-down runs from the 1- or 2-yard line. I'm not trying to say that the goal line runs are less important, because that would be stupid.

My point is that if Murray had really been better in short yardage than McFadden, we'd have seen similar results away from the goal line as well. We don't. Murray's goal-line dominance over McFadden doesn't transfer to anywhere else on the field in short yardage. That's a clue that the RB probably isn't the difference -- something else is.

In 2014, we had a QB and a #1 WR who were able to exploit defenses near the goal line when those defenses cheated toward the run. We did not have this goal-line passing threat in 2015, and when defenses figured that out, it had a huge effect on how often and how well we ran near the goal line.

from 5-yard line or closer
% of runs resulting in TD
2014 (all 16 games) 9 of 17 (53%)
2015 (games 1-6) 5 of 7 (72%)
2015 (games 7-16) 0 of 3 (0%)

We had no problem around the goal line during the first 6 games of the season, and in fact were much improved over 2014. Then when defenses starting loading up on the run, we did nothing, and practically stopped trying.

I think it's more about the passing threat (or lack of same) and the OL, than about the name of the RB running behind it.

Ah, I see your signature. Its obvious you are pass happy type of guy. Yah thats great if you have Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers as your QB. The problem is that we dont have Tom BRady. We have Tony Romo at age 36 and brittle. THIS particular team needs a dominant run game to protect Romo and the defense. 2014 was proof positive of that.

 

[CowboyRoy]

What does that even mean? "Dirty yards" means short yardage runs. I'm talking about short-yardage runs. All of them.

It means you say things like. We did better on the dirty yards if you dont include goal line and first and 2nd down from the 1 or 2. How can you even have a conversation like that? Goal line doesnt count? Its the most important thing. Its quite clear you dont value the importance of a great RG like I do. So really what is there to talk about. UP until 2014 Romo has been winging the ball all over the place racking up yards in Garretts pass happy offense. It got us nowhere. Until we finally dominated in the run game. If you want to ignore that, be my guest.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I'm assuming you didn't understand the point I made there. McFadden was a better short-yardage runner in 2015 than Murray was in 2014, unless you include 1st-and 2nd-down runs from the 1- or 2-yard line. I'm not trying to say that the goal line runs are less important, because that would be stupid.

My point is that if Murray had really been better in short yardage than McFadden, we'd have seen similar results away from the goal line as well. We don't. Murray's goal-line dominance over McFadden doesn't transfer to anywhere else on the field in short yardage. That's a clue that the RB probably isn't the difference -- something else is.

In 2014, we had a QB and a #1 WR who were able to exploit defenses near the goal line when those defenses cheated toward the run. We did not have this goal-line passing threat in 2015, and when defenses figured that out, it had a huge effect on how often and how well we ran near the goal line.

from 5-yard line or closer
% of runs resulting in TD
2014 (all 16 games) 9 of 17 (53%)
2015 (games 1-6) 5 of 7 (72%)
2015 (games 7-16) 0 of 3 (0%)

We had no problem around the goal line during the first 6 games of the season, and in fact were much improved over 2014. Then when defenses starting loading up on the run, we did nothing, and practically stopped trying.

I think it's more about the passing threat (or lack of same) and the OL, than about the name of the RB running behind it.

Since you are so good at stats, how about pulling this one up. In 2014 compared to 2015, what was Murrays average yards on first down runs compared to McFadden?

 

[csirl]

Biggest needs are QB and Safety.

We need QB1 plus QB2. You can't count on Romo to play regularly from now on.

We also need loads of safetys. We've nothing except Byron, who may end up at corner.

 

[percyhoward]

It means you say things like. We did better on the dirty yards if you dont include goal line and first and 2nd down from the 1 or 2. How can you even have a conversation like that? Goal line doesnt count?

Please read this again, tell me what part you're not getting, and I'll try to explain it another way.

"In 2014, we had a QB and a #1 WR who were able to exploit defenses near the goal line when those defenses cheated toward the run. We did not have this goal-line passing threat in 2015, and when defenses figured that out, it had a huge effect on how often and how well we ran near the goal line."

In 2014 compared to 2015, what was Murrays average yards on first down runs compared to McFadden?

1st and 10
2014 Murray 5.3
2015 McFadden 4.8

Murray averaged half a yard more per carry. But if you just look at the 5.3, it doesn't tell you as much. Defenses were playing pass early in the season, and when they started playing honest, Murray's average went down. Compare Murray's average from the first half of the season with the second half.

1st and 10, Murray 2014
g 1-8: 6.1
g 9-16: 4.3

If you want to compare the performances of the two backs, it makes more sense to compare McFadden's 2015 with Murray's second half of 2014. That at least gets you closer to apples and apples, as far as the defenses they were facing.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Please read this again, tell me what part you're not getting, and I'll try to explain it another way.

"In 2014, we had a QB and a #1 WR who were able to exploit defenses near the goal line when those defenses cheated toward the run. We did not have this goal-line passing threat in 2015, and when defenses figured that out, it had a huge effect on how often and how well we ran near the goal line."

1st and 10
2014 Murray 5.3
2015 McFadden 4.8

Murray averaged half a yard more per carry. But if you just look at the 5.3, it doesn't tell you as much. Defenses were playing pass early in the season, and when they started playing honest, Murray's average went down. Compare Murray's average from the first half of the season with the second half.

1st and 10, Murray 2014
g 1-8: 6.1
g 9-16: 4.3

If you want to compare the performances of the two backs, it makes more sense to compare McFadden's 2015 with Murray's second half of 2014. That at least gets you closer to apples and apples, as far as the defenses they were facing.

Look pal if you like McFadden, that is up to you. I dont like him. I have issues with Murray as well. If you dont value the run game like I do, no problem. We will just agree to disagree.

Like I said, you pick selected stats and apply them where you want to in order to try and prove a point. I cant follow that kind of logic. Leave out Murrays first half of the year when he was destroying the league? What? Yah, because that doesnt help your angle.

 

[ilykdrama]

Witten
Escobar
Hanna
Swaim

I have it ranked 2nd overall on this current roster, how is that not deep considering Wittten a future HOF keeps everyone else on the bench?

Think Hanna is a huge drop from Witten. Escobar won't be consistent and is coming off an achilles tear the worst injury in football. Swaim I'd love to see more of. Wouldn't be pissed if we went TE in the the 5 or lower rounds.

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

The TEs have been frustrating and could lead into the same kind of frustration at the QB position. It is not likely that a Rookie is going to pick apart Defenses with this same group of receivers that couldn't get any separation for the Vet backups.


Weeden and Cassel are still in the NFL, they won before Dallas and will win again in the Pro game. That should be a slight hint where the Cowboys Draft is headed in 17 Days.

 

[percyhoward]

Look pal if you like McFadden, that is up to you. I dont like him. I have issues with Murray as well. If you dont value the run game like I do, no problem. We will just agree to disagree.

Like I said, you pick selected stats and apply them where you want to in order to try and prove a point. I cant follow that kind of logic. Leave out Murrays first half of the year when he was destroying the league? What? Yah, because that doesnt help your angle.

Leave out nothing, look at everything. I broke down Murray's season into halves--not because I "like" or "dislike" a player-- but because I wanted to show the effect on his average when defenses stopped playing pass and started playing honest.

I shouldn't have assumed that you understand this concept.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

Thanks for the megalomania. You sure told me.

I'm trying to talk about the subject at hand. We were discussing the meaning of 'lion's share.' Now it's devolved into you making aspersions as to my emotional disposition while I try to steer it back to the subject. You've completely abandoned the point and instead try to make it all about me.

The obsession line is especially ironic in that context.

Back from holiday and I find this: Sigh.
Just for the record, bloke, I referenced your obsessiveness first.
Also, and isn't this forum all about you? At least that is what your posts insinulate, mate.

 

[jterrell]

I just don't get why people want dallas to draft a linebacker with a bad knee injury that you are not sure what he will be in the future.

And that plays like a safety.

 

[jterrell]

Leave out nothing, look at everything. I broke down Murray's season into halves--not because I "like" or "dislike" a player-- but because I wanted to show the effect on his average when defenses stopped playing pass and started playing honest.

I shouldn't have assumed that you understand this concept.

you can't explain things to people who refuse to listen.
only drafting a back at 4 and watching him bust and this team win 7 games (like Gurley's Rams) will satisfy them.
so in about 3 years they'll be going..., oh yeaaaaa that makes sense now.