RBs Production on 10 Carries

[masomenos]

In this thread I'm going through the RBs first 10 carries in each game that they had in the 2007 season. The purpose of this is to look at who would be the most effective RB when given limited carries in backup role behind Barber. Feel free to ask questions, comment on things or request certain RBs be evaluated, I'll get through it as quickly as possible.

Matt Forte
Game 1 vs Mississippi St: 10 carries for 51 yards and 1 TD, 5.1 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 2 vs Houston: 10 carries for 49 yards and 0 TDs, 4.9 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs SE Louisiana: 10 carries for 65 yards and 1 TD, 6.5 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 4 vs LSU: 10 carries for 37 yards and 0 TDs, 3.7 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 5 vs. Army: 10 carries for 51 yards and 0 TDs, 5.1 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Game 6 vs. S Methodist: 10 carries for 150 yards and 1 TD, 15.0 YPC, 4 carries of 10+ yards

Game 7 vs. Memphis: 10 carries for 63 yards and 0 TDs, 6.3 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 8 - Game 12: No Play by Play Available

Something I noticed with Forte was that he had a lot of low yardage or negative yardage carries and always broke off a couple long runs to keep his YPC up. Also in those 8 games i noted 2 fumbles in the first 10 carries. He also caught a number of passes and had 2 or 3 pass attempts, none of which were completed. The averages for Forte are:

10 carries for 66 yards, 6.6 YPC, 1 TD every .43 games.

Of course you also have to make note that Forte played in C-USA, facing easier opponents than some other RBs. It should also be mentioned that this was the first year Tulane ran a non spread offense so the OL may not have been exactly dominant in run blocking, possibly contributing to the number of carries for a loss and low yardage runs.

Up next: Ray Rice

 

[masomenos]

Ray Rice

Game 1 vs Buffalo: 10 carries for 79 yards and 2 TDs, 7.9 YPC, 4 runs of 10+ yards

Game 2 vs Navy: 10 carries for 56 yards and 1 TD, 5.6 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs Norfolk St: 10 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD, 6.1 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 4 vs Mayland: 10 carries for 64 yards and 0 TDs, 6.4 YPC, 2 runs over 10+ yards

Game 5 vs Cincinnati: 10 carries for 12 yards and 0 TDs, 1.2 YPC, 0 runs of 10+ yards

Game 6 vs Syracuse: 10 carries for 36 yards and 2 TDs, 3.6 YPC, 0 runs of 10+ yards

Game 7 vs South Florida: 10 carries for 45 yards and 0 TDs, 4.5 YPC, 2 runs of 10+ yards

Game 8 vs West Virginia: 10 carries for 41 yards and 0 TDs, 4.1 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 9 vs Connecticut: 10 carries for 70 yards and 0 TDs, 7.0 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 10 vs Army: 10 carries for 68 yards and 0 TDs, 6.8 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Game 11 vs Pittsburgh: No Play by Play Available

Game 12 vs Louisville: 10 carries for 46 yards and 2 TDs, 4.6 YPC, 3 runs of 10+ yards

Game 13 vs Ball St: 10 carries for 63 yards and 1 TD, 6.3 YPC, 3 runs of 10+ yards.

Those are pretty good numbers if you ask me. Only 2 games below 3 yards per carry and in one of those games he scored 2 TDs. That comes out to an average of:

10 carries for 53 yards and a TD every .75 games.

Rice was more of a consistent runner and I don't think I noted any carries of 20 yards or more, and if so it was only 1. He produced consistently but didn't face a whole lot of top competition. A lot of his TDs came from inside the 5 yard line and you could expect that total to drop if he was behind Barber. Rice would probably be better than Forte in terms of being able to consistently move the ball, but Forte would probably provide more big play opportunities.

Up Next: Chris Johnson

 

[Wezsh0T]

interesting thread...keep up the good work...

 

[Alexander]

interesting thread...keep up the good work...

Very much so. Please continue.

 

[Big Dakota]

Now this is the kind of interesting, thought provoking threads we need.

 

[masomenos]

Chris Johnson

Game 1 vs Virginia Tech: 10 carries for 29 yards and 1 TD, 2.9 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 2 vs North Carolina: Less than 10 carries, 8 carries for 18 yards 0 TD, 2.3 YPC, 0 carries of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs Southern Miss: 10 carries for 49 yards ans 0 TD, 4.9 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 4 vs West Virginia: 10 carries for 49 yards and 0 TD, 4.9 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 5 - 6: No Play By Play Available

Game 7 vs UTEP: 10 carries for 42 yards and 0 TD, 4.2 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 8 vs NC State: 10 carries for 33 yards and 1 TD, 3.3 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 9 vs UAB: 10 carries for 37 yards and 0 TDs, 3.7 YPC,0 carries of 10+ yards

Game 10 vs Memphis: 10 carries for 99 yards and 2 TDs, 9.9 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Game 11-12: No Play By Play Available

Game 13 vs Boise St: 10 carries for 104 yards and 1 TD, 10.4 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

The first 6 games I looked at were pretty disappointing actually. While he did have a couple of nice near 5 YPC games the rest were kind of underwhelming. But then those last 2 games looked at were just huge. I also noticed that Johnson had very few negative or 0 gain runs, but he did have a lot of 2-3 yard gains. His TDs were generally very long, 30+ yards and he had 2 that were 50+. I of course saw a lot of kick returns and catches mixed in too, but that's to be expected with a guy like Johnson. His stats average out to:

10 carries for 44 yards and 1 TD every 1.6 games, 4.4 YPC

His 10 carry production isn't quite as impressive as Forte or Rice and just confirms my thought that if we draft him we'd still need to get another RB who can consistently gain moderate chunks of yards.

Next up: Jammal Charles

 

[masomenos]

Quick Edit: I miscalculated the TD averages for Rice and Forte. Forte's should be 1 TD every 2.3 games, Rice's should be 1 TD every 1.7 games.

 

[Rampage]

how about mcfadden's stats?

 

[masomenos]

how about mcfadden's stats?

Sure I'll do them after Charles. I was going to do McFadden, Mendenhall and Stewart eventually for comparison purposes anyways. I think it'll be interesting to see.

 

[Rampage]

Sure I'll do them after Charles. I was going to do McFadden, Mendenhall and Stewart eventually for comparison purposes anyways. I think it'll be interesting to see.

cool stuff man. you might wanna think about the 1st 10 carries in the 2nd half too since they will be backing up barber the defense's won't be as fresh.

 

[masomenos]

cool stuff man. you might wanna think about the 1st 10 carries in the 2nd half too since they will be backing up barber the defense's won't be as fresh.

You know, I actually did think about that but it would have been kind of uneven because in blowout situations and stuff some backs don't get those 10 carries in the second half. I wanted the sample group to be as large as possible for each player and I figured that we would at least be able to look at each RB on a level playing field by doing the first 10 carries. It's a good thought though and I appreciate the suggestion. I'm almost done with Charles, but the gin is starting to get to me, we'll see if I can get through McFadden.

 

[masomenos]

Jammal Charles

Game 1 vs Arkansas St: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TD, 4.3 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Game 2 vs TCU: 10 carries for 36 yards and 0 TDs, 3.6 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs UCF: 10 carries for 53 yards and 0 TDs, 5.3 ypc, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 4 vs Rice: 10 carries for 62 yards and 1 TD, 6.2 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 5 vs Kansas St: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TD, 4.3 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 6 vs Oklahoma: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TD, 4.3 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 7: Less than 10 carries

Game 8 vs Baylor: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TD, 4.3 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 9 vs Nebraska: 10 carries for 50 yards and 0 TD, 5.0 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 10 vs Oklahoma St: 10 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD, 6.1 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 11 vs Texas Tech: 10 carries for 68 yards and 0 TD, 6.8 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 12 vs Texas A&M: 10 carries for 56 yards and 0 TD, 5.6 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 13 vs Arizona St.: 10 carries for 87 yards and 1 TD, 8.7 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Of everyone I've looked at so far, I think Charles has been the most impressive and it kind of caught me off guard. He was the one who most consistently had carries of 4+ yards. He also had the second highest rate of 10+ yard carries per game at 1.8. The other players 10+ yard carries per game average are Forte 2.1, Rice 1.6, Johnson 1.4. A negative I noticed was three Fumbles though it really tailed off at the end of the season, which is about in line with what I've heard; Charles received ball security drills from, I think it was, Earl Campbell midseason and after that his fumble issues went away. Charles averages are:

10 carries for 5.0 YPC and 1 TD every 4 games

Charles scored a lot of TDs this year, but not a lot in his first 10 carries of each game. I was down on Charles before I did this evaluation but it really kind of boosted his stock in my eyes.

Next Up: By Request- Darren McFadden

 

[Primetime0201]

Are you taking into acount the different defences they played against? Or if a RB has to share carries? Or how versitile they are? Like if they can throw catch block and run... Just wondering.

 

[Primetime0201]

NAME.................................CAR........YDS.....YPC.....LONG....TD
1. Kevin Smith, C Florida...........450........2567.....5.7.......87.......29
2. Matt Forte, Tulane...............361........2127.....5.9.......77.......23
3. Ray Rice, Rutgers.................380........2012.....5.3.......90.......24
4. Darren McFadden, Arkansas....325.......1830.....5.6.......80.......16
5. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon......280.......1722.....6.2.......88.......11
6. Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois.....262.......1681.....6.4.......79.......17
7. Eugene Jarvis, Kent St...........279.......1669.....6.0.......67.......10
8. Jamaal Charles, Texas............258.......1619.....6.3.......86.......18
9. Chris Wells, Ohio St...............274.......1609.....5.9.......65.......15
10. Anthony Alridge, Houston.......259.......1597.....6.2.......60.......14
34. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma.....188.......1012.....5.4.......53.......12

 

[masomenos]

Darren McFadden

Game 1 vs Troy: 10 carries for 80 yards and 1 TD, 8.0 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Game 2 vs Alabama: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TD, 4.3 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs Kentucky: 10 carries for 39 yards and 0 TD, 3.9 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 4: No Play by Play Available

Game 5 vs Chattanooga: 10 carries for 64 yards and 1 TD, 6.4 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 6 vs Auburn: 10 carries for 23 yards and 0 TD, 2.3 YPC, 0 carries of 10+ yards

Game 7 vs Mississippi: 10 carries for 46 yards and 0 TD, 4.6 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards.

Game 8 vs Florida International: 10 carries for 25 yards and 2 TDs, 2.5 YPC, 0 carries of 10+ yards

Game 9 vs South Carolina: 10 carries for 47 yards and 0 TDs, 4.7 YPC and 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 10 vs Tennessee: 10 carries for 44 yards and 0 TDs, 4.4 YPC and 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 11 vs Mississippi St: 10 carries for 17 yards and 0 TDs, 1.7 YPC and 0 carries of 10+ yards

Game 12 vs LSU: 10 carries for 60 yards and 1 TD, 6.0 YPC and 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 13 vs Missouri: 10 carries for 44 yards and 0 TD, 4.4 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

I wasn't really sure what to expect out of McFadden. Part of me expected to be blown away and the other part thought I was going to be underwhelmed...and after looking at the #s I still don't really know what to think. McFadden did have a couple good games in his first 10 carries but he also had some poor ones to counter them. Ultimately I think McFadden is the kind of back who really excels as the defense wears down, much like LT does. There wasn't a whole lot extra to note except for 2 fumbles by McFadden. His averages are...

10 carries for 44 yards, 1 TD every 2.4 games and 4.4 YPC.

I think McFadden has a lot of skills and I imagine that with 20+ carries in the NFL he'll have a lot of success. However if we were to draft him and have he and Barber split carries or have him backup Barber then I really don't know that he'd be a real difference maker. Now certainly he could be if used in the right way, with the majority of his carries coming in the second half after Barber had worn down the D, but if it was a situation like we had with Julius last year then I wouldn't go into it with the highest expectations. I want to make it clear that I'm not bashing McFadden, I'm not Mike Mayock, I just think that he may be the type of back who really excels as the game goes on and he's fed the rock. Going to a team like Dallas may be a disservice to him and poor value for the team.

::ducks::

Next Up: Unknown

 

[Hailmary]

Next Up: Unknown

Great thread. I'd like to see Felix Jones and Slaton.

 

[silverbear]

Jammal Charles

Game 1 vs Arkansas St: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TD, 4.3 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Game 2 vs TCU: 10 carries for 36 yards and 0 TDs, 3.6 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs UCF: 10 carries for 53 yards and 0 TDs, 5.3 ypc, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 4 vs Rice: 10 carries for 62 yards and 1 TD, 6.2 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 5 vs Kansas St: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TD, 4.3 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 6 vs Oklahoma: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TD, 4.3 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 7: Less than 10 carries

Game 8 vs Baylor: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TD, 4.3 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 9 vs Nebraska: 10 carries for 50 yards and 0 TD, 5.0 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 10 vs Oklahoma St: 10 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD, 6.1 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 11 vs Texas Tech: 10 carries for 68 yards and 0 TD, 6.8 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 12 vs Texas A&M: 10 carries for 56 yards and 0 TD, 5.6 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 13 vs Arizona St.: 10 carries for 87 yards and 1 TD, 8.7 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Of everyone I've looked at so far, I think Charles has been the most impressive and it kind of caught me off guard. He was the one who most consistently had carries of 4+ yards. He also had the second highest rate of 10+ yard carries per game at 1.8. The other players 10+ yard carries per game average are Forte 2.1, Rice 1.6, Johnson 1.4. A negative I noticed was three Fumbles though it really tailed off at the end of the season, which is about in line with what I've heard; Charles received ball security drills from, I think it was, Earl Campbell midseason and after that his fumble issues went away. Charles averages are:

10 carries for 5.0 YPC and 1 TD every 4 games

Charles scored a lot of TDs this year, but not a lot in his first 10 carries of each game. I was down on Charles before I did this evaluation but it really kind of boosted his stock in my eyes.

Next Up: By Request- Darren McFadden

I'm actually kind of surprised by those numbers, I think like a lot of folks I got to thinking he was most effective in the 4th quarter after what he did to Nebraska in that quarter... my impression of him was one of those backs who starts slow and gets better as the game wears on, but it would appear from these numbers that's not the case...

 

[Primetime0201]

Unless Barber isn't here and someone is backing DMC up. I mean Barber is the type of back that gets better when the D has already been worn down as well. Only difference is that Barber can't go a full 4.

 

[DaBoys4Life]

mason i love this thread and the hard work and the effort you put into this however i do not accept any of these no do i recongnize this stats as anyhting will tell me anything to expect from any of these running backs in the future. Point is A rb may have more rushing don't catch better doesn't return kicks better isn't faster. Something we lack a solid KR a speed back and a homerun threat. CJ provides all of this these stats don't represent nor do they corelate to how how a RB will respond in a two back system its a nice representitve but as a hole really does nothing.

This is just a vaccum of stats you might as well compare total rushing yards and 4get catching kick returning and attempts

 

[masomenos]

mason i love this thread and the hard work and the effort you put into this however i do not accept any of these no do i recongnize this stats as anyhting will tell me anything to expect from any of these running backs in the future. Point is A rb may have more rushing don't catch better doesn't return kicks better isn't faster. Something we lack a solid KR a speed back and a homerun threat. CJ provides all of this these stats don't represent nor do they corelate to how how a RB will respond in a two back system its a nice representitve but as a hole really does nothing.

This is just a vaccum of stats you might as well compare total rushing yards and 4get catching kick returning and attempts

I'll pretend like I just read what was bolded :laugh2:.

While these stats may be in a vacuum, as you say, they're still an accurate representation because it's the same "vacuum" for every player. Every player gets 10 carries to prove what they can do and if they played against weaker competition or had other notable stats then I make sure to note it in my commentary. You're right that these don't take kick returning or receiving into account, but they're not meant to. This is strictly an evaluation on each players success when running the ball on limited carries.
It's not perfect, but I think it's a valid representation.