RBs Production on 10 Carries

[masomenos]

Great thread. I'd like to see Felix Jones and Slaton.

I'll do Slaton next, look for it later today!

 

[Bob Sacamano]

good stuff, although I think you place way too much importance on college production

but it's the draft, players are broken down to the smallest parts, so I can't blame you

 

[CrazyCowboy]

I know alot of you Zoners like Rice, however, I just don't feel good about him......he does have heart though

 

[masomenos]

good stuff, although I think you place way too much importance on college production

but it's the draft, players are broken down to the smallest parts, so I can't blame you

Well, look at the top 10 RBs this past year, in terms of yardage

1. L. Tomlinson
- Finished 6th all time in NCAA history for rushing yardage with 5,263, including 2,158 yards and 22 TDs as a senior.

2. A. Peterson
- Finished 2nd all time in Oklahoma history for rushing yards with 4,045 in three seasons, two of which he missed time with injuries and a freshman year of 1,925 yards.

3. B. Westbrook

-Holds the all time record in NCAA for all purpose yards, finishing his career with 9,512. Ran for 4,298 yards in four seasons with a 6.2 average, holding 41 school records, 13 Atlantic Ten Records and 5 NCAA records.

4. W. Parker
- Unable to find college stats, but the outlook didn't look great based off of a wikipedia article.

5. J. Lewis

- Finished third all time in Tennessee history for rushing yards, including a 1364 yard performance as a freshman. Also finished fourth all time in school history for all purpose yards.

6. C. Portis
- Set a school record as a freshman with 5 100 yard perfromances, gaining 838 yards and 8 TDs on limited carries (143) with a 5.9 average. Had only 77 carries as a sophomore but ran for 1200 yards and 10 TDs on 220 carries for a 5.5 average. Finished 4th all time in Miami history for rushing yards, tied Edgerrin James record of most 100 performances at 14 despite only 2 seasons as a starter.

7. E. James
- Second all time in Miami history for rushing yards (total unknown) also is tied with Clinton Portis for most 100 yard games at 14.

8. W. McGahee
-As a senior ran for 1753 yards and 28 TDs, for the most rushing yards in a season in Miami history and 4th in NCAA history for rushing TDs in a season. Also had 10 100 yard performances that season.

9. F. Taylor
- Full stats unavailable, ran for 1292 yards in a pass heavy offense, including a 162 yard 4 TD performance against #1 ranked Florida St.

10. T. Jones
- Finished as Virginia's all time leading rusher with 3,998 yards, passing the mark set be Tiki Barber. Set eight ACC records and 15 school records including an ACC record 1798 rushing yards in a season. First player in ACC history to have 200 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving in the same game and an ACC record for 200 yard games with 4 as a senior.

I place such a high importance on college production because the players who have good success in this league were also very often successful in college. Of those 10 players there's one who didn't have a distinguished college career. Most of these players broke numerous records. Now it doesn't mean that ALL running backs who have success in college will also be successful in the pros, some will fail of course. However, most of the successful RBs in the NFL also had successful college careers. That's why it's important to look at.
​

 

[This is Our Year]

Rice is going to be a good Pro and would be a perfect combo back. A La Jones-Drew it's just me might not have the break away speed that some want in the 2nd back behind MBIII.

 

[masomenos]

Steve Slaton

Game 1: No Play by Play Available

Game 2 vs. Marshall: 10 carries for 40 yards and 0 TD, 4.0 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs Maryland: 10 carries for 57 yards and 0 TD, 5.7 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Game 4 vs ECU: 10 carries for 47 yards and 1 TD, 4.7 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Game 5 vs UCF: 10 carries for 43 yards and 0 TDs, 4.3 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 6 vs Syracuse: 10 carries for 47 yards and 0 TDs, 4.7 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 7 vs Mississippi St: 10 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD, 6.1 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 8 vs Rutgers: 10 carries for 63 yards and 1 TD, 6.3 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 9 vs Louisville: 10 carries for 30 yards and 1 TD, 3.0 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 10 vs Cincinnati: 10 carries for 32 yards an 0 TD, 3.2 YPC, 0 carries of 10+ yards

Game 11 vs Connecticut: 10 carries for 54 yards and 2 TDs, 5.4 YPC, 1 carry of 10 + yards

Game 12-13: Less than 10 carries

Slaton has been the least consistent of all the backs so far. He has a very high number of negative and low yardage runs but his YPC get balanced by 1 or 2 longer runs. Typically his carries of 10+ yards were more in the 20+ yard range. I would probably stay away from Slaton because of his inability to run consistently and the fact that you just never know what you're going to get when he touches the ball. His averages work out to:

10 carries for 47 yards for 4.7 YPC and a TD every 1.7 games.

Now, West Virginia runs a very college style offense that doesn't translate well into the NFL. Coupling that fact with the lackluster stats and a rather disappointing combine makes me very wary of Slaton. Two fumbles were also noted.

Next Up: Kevin Smith

*note: I probably won't do Felix Jones because he has a large number of games under 10 carries and for a couple other games there are no play by plays available, so his sample of statistics would be very small.

 

[Muhast]

just to humor me, do Tashard Choice from GT please. I have a feeling we'll grab him in round 3 or so.

 

[masomenos]

Kevin Smith

Game 1 vs NC State: 10 carries for 110 yards and 1 TD, 11.0 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 2 vs Texas: 10 carries for 38 yards and 1 TD, 3.8 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 3 vs Memphis: 10 carries for 88 yards and 1 TD, 8.8 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Game 4 vs Louisiana-Lafayette: 10 carries for 91 yards and 1 TD, 9.1 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 5: No Play By Play Available

Game 6 vs UCF: 10 carries for 61 yards and 0 TD, 6.1 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Game 7 vs Tulsa: 10 carries for 30 yards and 0 TD, 3.0 YPC, 0 carries of 10+ yards

Game 8 vs Southern Miss: 10 carries for 42 yards and 1 TD, 4.2 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Game 9 vs Marshall: 10 carries for 33 yards and 1 TD, 3.3 YPC, 0 carries of 10+ yards

Game 10-11: No Play By Play Available

Game 12 vs UTEP: 10 carries for 29 yards and 0 TDs, 2.9 YPC, 0 carries of 10+ yards

Game 13 vs Tulsa: 10 carries for 61 yards and 0 TD, 6.1 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Game 14 vs Mississippi St: 10 carries for 42 yards and 0 TD, 4.2 YPC, 1 carry of 10 + yards

For a guy who ran for nearly 2600 yard and 29 TDs, Kevin Smith was kind of unimpressive. His numbers just seemed average with a couple really really long runs of 50+ yards that cause spikes in his YPC in a couple of games. He didn't have a ton of low yardage or negative carries, but I did see them pop up more than some of the other RBs. I didn't not any fumbles for Smith though which was a plus. Most of his really good games came against lesser opponents and like I said, most of those stats were inflated by one huge carry. Smith's averages:

10 carries for 63 yards at 6.3 YPC and a TD every 1.8 games.

I think these numbers are overly inflated and may not be a true representation of Smith's production ability on limited carries. In right around half of the games Smith ended the game with a higher YPC than he had in his first 10 carries. I think smith has the capability to be a consistent back but would really only pop out statistically if given a large number of carries.

up next: Tashard Choice

 

[This is Our Year]

Assuming we don't trade up for McFadden (hopefully not). Does anyone else feel that either Felix Jones, Ray Rice, or Chris Johnson will a Cowboy come draft day.......

That's how I feel at least, I would be very surprised if one of those guys wasn't on our team next year.

 

[rguido]

Well, look at the top 10 RBs this past year, in terms of yardage

1. L. Tomlinson
- Finished 6th all time in NCAA history for rushing yardage with 5,263, including 2,158 yards and 22 TDs as a senior.

2. A. Peterson
- Finished 2nd all time in Oklahoma history for rushing yards with 4,045 in three seasons, two of which he missed time with injuries and a freshman year of 1,925 yards.

3. B. Westbrook

-Holds the all time record in NCAA for all purpose yards, finishing his career with 9,512. Ran for 4,298 yards in four seasons with a 6.2 average, holding 41 school records, 13 Atlantic Ten Records and 5 NCAA records.

4. W. Parker
- Unable to find college stats, but the outlook didn't look great based off of a wikipedia article.

5. J. Lewis

- Finished third all time in Tennessee history for rushing yards, including a 1364 yard performance as a freshman. Also finished fourth all time in school history for all purpose yards.

6. C. Portis
- Set a school record as a freshman with 5 100 yard perfromances, gaining 838 yards and 8 TDs on limited carries (143) with a 5.9 average. Had only 77 carries as a sophomore but ran for 1200 yards and 10 TDs on 220 carries for a 5.5 average. Finished 4th all time in Miami history for rushing yards, tied Edgerrin James record of most 100 performances at 14 despite only 2 seasons as a starter.

7. E. James
- Second all time in Miami history for rushing yards (total unknown) also is tied with Clinton Portis for most 100 yard games at 14.

8. W. McGahee
-As a senior ran for 1753 yards and 28 TDs, for the most rushing yards in a season in Miami history and 4th in NCAA history for rushing TDs in a season. Also had 10 100 yard performances that season.

9. F. Taylor
- Full stats unavailable, ran for 1292 yards in a pass heavy offense, including a 162 yard 4 TD performance against #1 ranked Florida St.

10. T. Jones
- Finished as Virginia's all time leading rusher with 3,998 yards, passing the mark set be Tiki Barber. Set eight ACC records and 15 school records including an ACC record 1798 rushing yards in a season. First player in ACC history to have 200 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving in the same game and an ACC record for 200 yard games with 4 as a senior.

I place such a high importance on college production because the players who have good success in this league were also very often successful in college. Of those 10 players there's one who didn't have a distinguished college career. Most of these players broke numerous records. Now it doesn't mean that ALL running backs who have success in college will also be successful in the pros, some will fail of course. However, most of the successful RBs in the NFL also had successful college careers. That's why it's important to look at.
​

Well the problem with this statement is; one usually does not make it into the NFL without having a successfull college career. No RB is going to be drafted without showing some success. So these numbers will be skewed. Its like saying most mensa members have a college degree. Its not a requirement to become a member; but one usually comes with the other.

 

[masomenos]

Well the problem with this statement is; one usually does not make it into the NFL without having a successfull college career. No RB is going to be drafted without showing some success. So these numbers will be skewed. Its like saying most mensa members have a college degree. Its not a requirement to become a member; but one usually comes with the other.

You mean like Chris Henry who was drafted in the second round last year after having 892 rushing yards his entire college career at a dismal 3.3 YPC. Kolby Smith was drafted last year with less than 1800 career yards. Allen Patrick will get drafted this year with fewer than 2,000 career yards. Cory Boyd and Chauncey Washington very well may be drafted without ever having a 1,000 yard season. Chris Johnson will be picked with only one year of more than 700 yards rushing and underwhelming/average YPC in his first 3 seasons. There are a ton of players at every position who make it to the NFL based on their "potential" when they only had one year of production in college, or even no real success at the college level (see: Chris Henry).

Yes most RBs who get drafted weren't bums in college, but they also weren't cranking out consistent 1000 yard years. There's a big difference in a RB who gets 2500 yards in his career by getting small chunks of yardage every year and a player who has back to back 1250 yard seasons. It's not just looking at how many yards a player has, its looking at how those yards were gained.

 

[masomenos]

Tashard Choice

Week 1 vs Notre Dame: 10 carries for 50 yards and 0 TD, 5.0 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Week 2 vs Samford: 10 carried for 38 yards and 1 TD, 3.8 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Week 3: No Play by Play Available

Week 4: Fewer than 10 carries

Week 5 vs Clemson: 10 carries for 55 yards and 1 TD, 5.5 YPC, 3 carries of 10+ yards

Week 6 vs Maryland: 10 carries for 35 yards and 0 TD, 3.5 YPC, 0 carries of 10+ yards

Week 7 vs Miami: 10 carries for 42 yards and 0 TD, 4.2 YPC, 1 run of 10+ yards

Week 8-9: Fewer than 10 carries/Did Not Play

Week 10 vs Duke: 10 carries for 80 yards and 0 TD, 8.0 YPC, 1 carry of 10+ yards

Week 11: No Play by Play Available

Week 12 vs. Georgia: 10 carries for 50 yards and 1 TD, 5.0 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards

Week 13 vs. Fresno St: 10 carries for 61 yards and 0 TD, 6.1 YPC, 2 carries of 10+ yards.

Choice has probably been the least "exciting" back looked at so far. He can be counted on pretty consistently to get short gains but he doesn't have a lot of big play ability in him at all. His runs of 10+ yards were generally on the shorter side, while most of the other RBs were able to break of longer runs. He only had one fumble. Seems to be another one of those RBs who really picks up most of their yards as the game goes on/as they get more carries. Averages are:

10 carries for 41 yards at 4.1 YPC and 1 TD every 2.7 games.

He's kind of the anti-Steve Slaton. Where Slaton was all over the board with his production Choice is a much more consistent runner who can be counted on those short yardage gains but may not do a whole lot else.

 

[Wezsh0T]

After watching more video, I'm starting to think Jamaal Charles will be a really good NFL back. I was biased against him because I don't think Longhorn RBs have performed all that well at the NFL level.

 

[jobberone]

I'm not sure why looking at the first ten carries is a reasonable approach as far as comparisons. Heck it takes a full game to get a glimpse and even after a career you have a hard time ciphering what a players gonna do.

I think the only approach you can take is what the pro scouts do. You have to watch them play.

I have enjoyed the thread and its an interesting approach which has merit of its own.

 

[Wezsh0T]

I'm not sure why looking at the first ten carries is a reasonable approach as far as comparisons. Heck it takes a full game to get a glimpse and even after a career you have a hard time ciphering what a players gonna do.

I think the only approach you can take is what the pro scouts do. You have to watch them play.

I have enjoyed the thread and its an interesting approach which has merit of its own.

I'm not sure anyone is saying this is an end all be all way to look at RBs, I think it's just another way to look at their performance. Maso's way of analyzing the data was an attempt to give us a glimpse into how a RB might perform given limited carries. Perfect? No...interesting? For sure...

 

[jobberone]

I'm not sure anyone is saying this is an end all be all way to look at RBs, I think it's just another way to look at their performance. Maso's way of analyzing the data was an attempt to give us a glimpse into how a RB might perform given limited carries. Perfect? No...interesting? For sure...

I didn't say it was the end all be all. And I said it was interesting and had merit. Whatyawant?

 

[DallasEast]

To compare each player's production versus their opponents' rushing defense (Division I-A, at least), click on...

http://statistics.ncaafootball.com/...page=cfoot/stat/ncaa-team-rushing-defense.htm

 

[masomenos]

To compare each player's production versus their opponents' rushing defense (Division I-A, at least), click on...

http://statistics.ncaafootball.com/...page=cfoot/stat/ncaa-team-rushing-defense.htm

Oh very intriguing, I may have to do another thread based on the information there. Good link!

 

[ajk23az]

After watching more video, I'm starting to think Jamaal Charles will be a really good NFL back. I was biased against him because I don't think Longhorn RBs have performed all that well at the NFL level.

Well, Ricky would have but we all know how that went down :laugh2:

 

[rguido]

You mean like Chris Henry who was drafted in the second round last year after having 892 rushing yards his entire college career at a dismal 3.3 YPC. Kolby Smith was drafted last year with less than 1800 career yards. Allen Patrick will get drafted this year with fewer than 2,000 career yards. Cory Boyd and Chauncey Washington very well may be drafted without ever having a 1,000 yard season. Chris Johnson will be picked with only one year of more than 700 yards rushing and underwhelming/average YPC in his first 3 seasons. There are a ton of players at every position who make it to the NFL based on their "potential" when they only had one year of production in college, or even no real success at the college level (see: Chris Henry).

Yes most RBs who get drafted weren't bums in college, but they also weren't cranking out consistent 1000 yard years. There's a big difference in a RB who gets 2500 yards in his career by getting small chunks of yardage every year and a player who has back to back 1250 yard seasons. It's not just looking at how many yards a player has, its looking at how those yards were gained.

I was going by who you listed as this years most productive backs. 70% of those backs were drafted in rd 1. yes plenty of backs get drafted every year, but most of the backs you listed as successfull were taken in the first rd and you do not get taken in the first rd unless you have proven yourself to be a good back.