Rebuild Plan 1001

[Hoofbite]

The 6M base would be restructured as follows:

New base 840K
Restructure bonus of 6M - 840K = 5.16M
Restructure bonus yearly charge 5.16/4 = 1.29M

2014 Cap: 840K + 1.29M + 3.75M = 5.88M

So a pay cut down to a $6M base salary and then restructure that amount?

I got ya. I think that's a pretty hard sell. It only guarantees him the $6M and he'd definitely get more than that as a free agent.

The bigger problem is that his cap number in 2015 would be $18M and Dallas would be in a worse cap position in terms of dead money for cutting him at that point than they would be if they just cut him after this season. If he were to bounce back they'd have to go back and ask him to take yet another pay cut.

Dallas has completely screwed the pooch on his contract. They've converted so much money in years prior that they have limited their options right now.

Side note: This is precisely why restructuring as your SOP is the dumbest thing you can do. Inflated cap numbers for players at an older age. Player performance generally has a negative slope over time. Contracts have a positive slope and Dallas has done nothing but increase the rate of increase by continually restructuring every year.

It's like buying a $50K car and making $200 monthly payments for 3 years, and only after the car has lost it's value do you start to make up the difference. Problem is, now you're paying what mounts to be a mortgage for a car who's value has declined to such an extent that you'll likely pay double the sticker price by the time it is all said and done and yet when you turn around and sell the thing off you're only getting a fraction of that back.

I think the best move is to not renegotiate 2014 but instead renegotiate his base salaries for 2015 and 2016 down to about $5M. Renegotiate 2017 down to $8M. You guarantee him 2015's base salary and then you convert the max amount of his current 2014 salary and prorate it over the remaining years plus an additional year added to back end.

What you'd have then is cap charges of about:

2014: $6.875M
2015: $11M
2016: $8.3M
2017: $12.3M

He's guaranteed 2014 and 2015 so he gets $17M over the two years, $12M of which comes up front the day the restructure goes though. If he plays through 2015 it would be almost cap neutral to cut him prior to 2016 (I'm getting $600K dead) which means if he's an 8 or 9 sack guy you're still getting decent return and can keep him. Cutting him prior to 2017 would avoid about $6M in cap charges while also creating the incentive ($8M base) for him to reach those later years. Provided he plays that long, he's a 35 year old guy and wouldn't have a snowballs chance in hell of seeing a base salary that high on another team.

Basically turns his current deal into a 4 year, $30M contract. Make that last year an option year at like $10M in base ($12.2M cap charge) so the team can retain him if he finds the fountain of youth and is playing well.

He's already pretty much guaranteed to far exceed $6M no matter what happens unless he retires so there's just no incentive for him to take a massive pay cut without any guarantee of future money. If he doesn't renegotiate the team will either guarantee his salary and convert it or they will cut him. On the open market there'd be a few teams who'd pay more than $6M. Wimbley was a year younger and far less productive and his SB was $9M. There are a number of teams who are about to roll over a TON of cap space and regardless of what this board thinks of Ware right now he'd still be a hot commodity on the open market.

Dallas is going to have to decrease the total salary and guarantee more of it if they want to keep him. They may have to guarantee 2016 because they need to get to a point where they are paying more than other teams would. Right now they can't afford to pay more but in 2016 when he's older and possibly slowed down more, doubtful many teams would pay a ton for him. Only problem is, you're banking on the guy to at bare minimum avoid further decline.

 

[Oh_Canada]

Real good post. Well thought out.

LaMarr Houston is an intriguing name if they move him inside.

 

[xwalker]

So a pay cut down to a $6M base salary and then restructure that amount?

I got ya. I think that's a pretty hard sell. It only guarantees him the $6M and he'd definitely get more than that as a free agent.

The bigger problem is that his cap number in 2015 would be $18M and Dallas would be in a worse cap position in terms of dead money for cutting him at that point than they would be if they just cut him after this season. If he were to bounce back they'd have to go back and ask him to take yet another pay cut.

Dallas has completely screwed the pooch on his contract. They've converted so much money in years prior that they have limited their options right now.

Side note: This is precisely why restructuring as your SOP is the dumbest thing you can do. Inflated cap numbers for players at an older age. Player performance generally has a negative slope over time. Contracts have a positive slope and Dallas has done nothing but increase the rate of increase by continually restructuring every year.

It's like buying a $50K car and making $200 monthly payments for 3 years, and only after the car has lost it's value do you start to make up the difference. Problem is, now you're paying what mounts to be a mortgage for a car who's value has declined to such an extent that you'll likely pay double the sticker price by the time it is all said and done and yet when you turn around and sell the thing off you're only getting a fraction of that back.

I think the best move is to not renegotiate 2014 but instead renegotiate his base salaries for 2015 and 2016 down to about $5M. Renegotiate 2017 down to $8M. You guarantee him 2015's base salary and then you convert the max amount of his current 2014 salary and prorate it over the remaining years plus an additional year added to back end.

What you'd have then is cap charges of about:

2014: $6.875M
2015: $11M
2016: $8.3M
2017: $12.3M

He's guaranteed 2014 and 2015 so he gets $17M over the two years, $12M of which comes up front the day the restructure goes though. If he plays through 2015 it would be almost cap neutral to cut him prior to 2016 (I'm getting $600K dead) which means if he's an 8 or 9 sack guy you're still getting decent return and can keep him. Cutting him prior to 2017 would avoid about $6M in cap charges while also creating the incentive ($8M base) for him to reach those later years. Provided he plays that long, he's a 35 year old guy and wouldn't have a snowballs chance in hell of seeing a base salary that high on another team.

Basically turns his current deal into a 4 year, $30M contract. Make that last year an option year at like $10M in base ($12.2M cap charge) so the team can retain him if he finds the fountain of youth and is playing well.

He's already pretty much guaranteed to far exceed $6M no matter what happens unless he retires so there's just no incentive for him to take a massive pay cut without any guarantee of future money. If he doesn't renegotiate the team will either guarantee his salary and convert it or they will cut him. On the open market there'd be a few teams who'd pay more than $6M. Wimbley was a year younger and far less productive and his SB was $9M. There are a number of teams who are about to roll over a TON of cap space and regardless of what this board thinks of Ware right now he'd still be a hot commodity on the open market.

Dallas is going to have to decrease the total salary and guarantee more of it if they want to keep him. They may have to guarantee 2016 because they need to get to a point where they are paying more than other teams would. Right now they can't afford to pay more but in 2016 when he's older and possibly slowed down more, doubtful many teams would pay a ton for him. Only problem is, you're banking on the guy to at bare minimum avoid further decline.

I would really prefer to just cut him. The dead-money would be 8.571M instead of his scheduled cap hit of 16M. That frees up 7.5M for free agents.

Cap hits for all Scenarios with Ware:
Cut 2014=8,571,500
June 1st cut 2014=3,753,750 2015=5,817,750
Keep without restructure 2014=16,003,750
Restructure 2014=6,875,750 9,000,000 pushed into the future
Pay Cut and Restructure: 2014=6,000,000 3,000,000 pushed into the future

 

[ROUSH8692]

If we could get a older QB that played like Bledsoe did in 2005, we would be all right. He was decent that year.

You need to rewatch that year..... God you really have no clue what youre talking about

 

[burmafrd]

You need to rewatch that year..... God you really have no clue what youre talking about

no you failed football 101. He was decent that year. It was 2006 when he stank it up. But a casual fan like you would not know that.

That was also the year we lost the Hotel early and we had Tucker and Petitti as the tackles. Considering that Bledsoe did pretty well.

 

[Common Sense]

Just trying to get inside of Jerry's head here, I fully expect the following players to get restructured:

Romo
Carr
Witten
Lee
Scandrick

As bad as the restructures are, if these players are going to remain on the team in 2014, it doesn't matter if you take the hit now or spread it out over several years. It's there and it's not going away. Hopefully this will start to dispel the myth that only the "guaranteed money" portion of the contract is what matters, because with the Joneses, even base salary is bound to become guaranteed as long as the team starts out the year over the cap and needs some quick, easy credit. And it will.

Those moves alone should get the team under or at least close to under the cap for 2014, but it is pushing a scary amount of money into 2015-2017. This will free up just shy of $25 million according to the salary cap calculator thingy they have at overthecap.com. The only exception to this I see is if Witten becomes a surprise cut. I doubt it, but some big names are going to have to go in 2014 to free up space for Dez, Bailey, and Smith and their cap figures over the next few seasons. I think this may be why the team drafted Escobar despite already having Hanna on the roster. They are obviously preparing for life beyond Witten, but the question is whether it will be in 2014, 2015, 2016, etc.

Ware could be asked to take a pay cut and then be restructured, but tough decisions are going to have to be made and right now this looks like the easiest one due to performance versus cost. I would assume if he refuses a pay cut, then the team will try to trade him to a desperate 3-4 team for whatever they can get. That saves, what, $7.5 million? You can definitely find a younger player to replace his production for that, and without the neck and shoulder injuries that are probably never going to fully heal at his age and will always make it difficult for him to play with his hand down.

I think that the front office realizes that some of these contracts are going to have to be terminated for the sake of future cap years. I think that they are going to target one or two expensive veterans a season and methodically release them one or two at a time in 2014, 2015, etc., rather than "blowing it up" and starting over. Not counting Ware, who I think would only be cut as a plan B or C, that would make the following players POTENTIAL cuts in 2014:

Miles Austin
Kyle Orton
Doug Free
Mackenzy Bernadeau

The team COULD ask Miles to take a pay cut like they probably will with Ware, but at this point it makes sense just to walk away from the contract so that you don't have to repeat the same old routine every single year. The team drafted Terrence Williams to have leverage when it comes to dealing with Miles. Orton is an expensive luxury that the team can't afford anymore, and one if not both of the right-side OL will be cut, although it might depend on how the draft shapes up. Keep in mind that Bernadeau's cap figure next year is over $4 million. If Waters comes back, he's gone. There's no way this team can afford a $4 million backup. If the team decides it has no better options at guard, then they may try to save some money by cutting Free and letting Parnell compete with a draft pick.

Think about it -- Waters' cap figure this year was lower than Bernadeau's will be next year. Can he really play well enough in these next three games to prove his worth after the team spent all season desperately trying to replace him?

Over the Cap says that those moves will give the team about $25 million in cap space. That's easily enough to plug a few holes in free agency (a cheaper backup QB on a first-year cap hit, one average starting OL, one or two new defensive starters) and hopefully get two of the three priority players signed to long-term deals.

 

[Common Sense]

Just trying to get inside of Jerry's head here, I fully expect the following players to get restructured:

Romo
Carr
Witten
Lee
Scandrick

As bad as the restructures are, if these players are going to remain on the team in 2014, it doesn't matter if you take the hit now or spread it out over several years. It's there and it's not going away. Hopefully this will start to dispel the myth that only the "guaranteed money" portion of the contract is what matters, because with the Joneses, even base salary is bound to become guaranteed as long as the team starts out the year over the cap and needs some quick, easy credit. And it will.

Those moves alone should get the team under or at least close to under the cap for 2014, but it is pushing a scary amount of money into 2015-2017. This will free up just shy of $25 million according to the salary cap calculator thingy they have at overthecap.com. The only exception to this I see is if Witten becomes a surprise cut. I doubt it, but some big names are going to have to go in 2014 to free up space for Dez, Bailey, and Smith and their cap figures over the next few seasons. I think this may be why the team drafted Escobar despite already having Hanna on the roster. They are obviously preparing for life beyond Witten, but the question is whether it will be in 2014, 2015, 2016, etc.

Ware could be asked to take a pay cut and then be restructured, but tough decisions are going to have to be made and right now this looks like the easiest one due to performance versus cost. I would assume if he refuses a pay cut, then the team will try to trade him to a desperate 3-4 team for whatever they can get. That saves, what, $7.5 million? You can definitely find a younger player to replace his production for that, and without the neck and shoulder injuries that are probably never going to fully heal at his age and will always make it difficult for him to play with his hand down.

I think that the front office realizes that some of these contracts are going to have to be terminated for the sake of future cap years. I think that they are going to target one or two expensive veterans a season and methodically release them one or two at a time in 2014, 2015, etc., rather than "blowing it up" and starting over. Not counting Ware, who I think would only be cut as a plan B or C, that would make the following players POTENTIAL cuts in 2014:

Miles Austin
Kyle Orton
Doug Free
Mackenzy Bernadeau

The team COULD ask Miles to take a pay cut like they probably will with Ware, but at this point it makes sense just to walk away from the contract so that you don't have to repeat the same old routine every single year. The team drafted Terrence Williams to have leverage when it comes to dealing with Miles. Orton is an expensive luxury that the team can't afford anymore, and one if not both of the right-side OL will be cut, although it might depend on how the draft shapes up. Keep in mind that Bernadeau's cap figure next year is over $4 million. If Waters comes back, he's gone. There's no way this team can afford a $4 million backup. If the team decides it has no better options at guard, then they may try to save some money by cutting Free and letting Parnell compete with a draft pick.

Think about it -- Waters' cap figure this year was lower than Bernadeau's will be next year. Can he really play well enough in these next three games to prove his worth after the team spent all season desperately trying to replace him?

Over the Cap says that those moves will give the team about $25 million in cap space. That's easily enough to plug a few holes in free agency (a cheaper backup QB on a first-year cap hit, one average starting OL, one or two new defensive starters) and hopefully get two of the three priority players signed to long-term deals.

TL;DR: I drank a lot of coffee today.

 

[dragon_mikal]

Ware isn't going anywhere. Should he take a pay cut? I think so. I think he has some good years left in him if they could upgrade the interior defensive line. He can't do it all himself.

Carr isn't going anywhere and shouldn't go anywhere. I'd be willing to bet that Seattle's secondary would look pedestrian with the front seven the Cowboys have.

The problem this team has when it comes to the salary cap is Jerry Jones and him writing checks too big to cash. That isn't changing. Jerry will take 8-8 season after 8-8 season before he lets this team go 1-15 again.

 

[Common Sense]

The problem this team has when it comes to the salary cap is Jerry Jones and him writing checks too big to cash. That isn't changing. Jerry will take 8-8 season after 8-8 season before he lets this team go 1-15 again.

One thing I realized this past offseason was that Jerry and Stephen don't have a very good feel for open market value in the NFL. It's easy to say this team pays the going rate when it's the one setting the going rate, but look at what happened when they sit out free agency. They decided that they had to franchise Spencer for a second time while Seattle stocked up on similar players at comparative bargains. Had Dallas let Spencer walk, they probably would have paid the same type of money to someone like Avril, and we'd be lamenting the "going rate" as some kind of quid pro quo. The Carr contract is another case in point. It "looks" like the going rate until you realize it was packed full of hidden guaranteed money to be purposefully restructured later. What was originally a $50 million guaranteed contract will eventually end up being a $70 or so million guaranteed contract.

 

[xwalker]

One thing I realized this past offseason was that Jerry and Stephen don't have a very good feel for open market value in the NFL. It's easy to say this team pays the going rate when it's the one setting the going rate, but look at what happened when they sit out free agency. They decided that they had to franchise Spencer for a second time while Seattle stocked up on similar players at comparative bargains. Had Dallas let Spencer walk, they probably would have paid the same type of money to someone like Avril, and we'd be lamenting the "going rate" as some kind of quid pro quo. The Carr contract is another case in point. It "looks" like the going rate until you realize it was packed full of hidden guaranteed money to be purposefully restructured later. What was originally a $50 million guaranteed contract will eventually end up being a $70 or so million guaranteed contract.

I don't see any money in Carr's contract above the 50M number.

They appear to have added a voidable year to stretch the restructure out for 5 years, but that's really just a fake number.