Regarding Duke Preston...

[dallasfaniac]

The only thing I am excited about is bringing in a player with starting experience. I could care less if he is gone in a week, as long as we at least attempt to churn the bottom of the roster.

 

[Idgit]

Adam, I was hoping you'd chip in on this thread... I read the article you reposted here when you first posted it, but "Ron From NM's" take surely doesn't square with what I see when I look at the stats sheet...

As a result, I find myself wondering how much expertise Ron has, and how much personal bias goes into his grading of film... are you familiar with his work at all, could you give us some take on if he has anything resembling your credibility, or if he's just another blogger with an opinion??

I'm not being defensive here, I just don't know the guy, and like I said, his take doesn't seem to square with the numbers I've seen... of course, there may well have been other factors involved in the improved play of the OL after Preston became the starter, I'm surely not up on things Bills-related...

And of course, I know better than to argue with you... so if you have any input to offer, I'd be quite interested... my mind's still open on this one...

As for the fan comments at the end, let's just say that I have never found your average everyday Bills fan to be particularly knowledgeable about the game...

A couple Bills fans had some moderately positive comments. No surprise that they weren't sorry to see him go as a starter, though. And not different from any fan reaction when a player is let walk in FA. Look at the way we dumped on Chris Canty on his way out the door.

Nobody's expecting a starting-quality player. Honestly, he sounds a lot like they're version of Procter to me, only a bit bigger and less familiar with our system. Still, we've got enough time to determine if he's an upgrade or not. No downside, and he's a young, healthy player with some experience if he pans out.

 

[Idgit]

Can I link to ESPN Insider stuff here? Grizz does over at BTB, and there were a couple interesting nuggets.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/nfl/players/scouting?playerId=8536

Of note, they say he reacts well to interior stunts and twists, which is something that bit us late in the year last year, too.

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Some numbers from the Bills opponents:

Team.....Overall D....Passing D....YPComp....QB Rate....Rushing D....YPCarry

Seattle ..... 30..............32............28............29...........18...............16

Jaxonvil..... 17..............24.............30...........28............13..............11

Oakland .....27.............10.............22............12...........31...............27

St. Louis.... 28.............19.............31............27...........29..............28

Arizona...... 19.............22.............22............30...........16..............11

Record of those above games, 4-1 only loss to Arizona.

Stats of teams Bill's faced with Preston in the lineup:


Team.....Overall D....Passing D....YPComp....QB Rate....Rushing D....YPCarry

San Diego .25...........31...............14............24...........11..............11

Miami ...... 15...........25...............17............9............10..............16

Jets......... 16...........29...............17............22...........7................6

New Eng ...10...........11..............24............23............15.............15

Cleveland ...26...........14.............26............13.............28.............24

Kansas ..... 31............28............24............25.............30.............30

San Fran ....13............20............10.............19.............13..............8

Denver .......29...........26.............28.............31.............27............32

Record in the games with Preston in, 3-8. Wins against Denver, KC, and San Diego.

Without getting out my stats book and getting nasty with some numbers, there doesn't appear at the surface to be any huge statistical differences between the 5 games without Preston vs. the 11 games with him. There are however subtle differences that do and do not add up to much.

In the last 11 games, Buffalo faced 7 teams in the top 1/2 of the NFL in overall defense. The passing defenses they faced were pretty scattered, but the rushing defenses were pretty decent.

8 of 11 games against top 1/2 NFL rushing defenses. 4 games against Miami and Jets who ranked in the top 10 in overall rushing defense. San Diego just behind those two with 11th overall rushing defense.

Their sack totals by opponent and the opponent's overall ranking in sacks:

Seattle - 10th - 1

Jaxonvil - 16th - 3

Oakland- 13th - 3

St. Lou - 16th - 4

Arizona - 14th - 5

Total allowed sacks 16, against top half ranking NFL sacks defense.

Insert Preston (yes he's totally responsible for any turn around damn it )

San Diego - 22nd - 0

Miami.... - 8th - 6 (two games)

Jets ........7th - 8 (two games)

New Engld 14th- 4 (two games)

Cleveland - 30th - 0

Kansas Cty - 32 - 0

San Francis - 16th - 2

Denver - 26th - 1

In the first 5 games of the season, they were allowing 3.2 sacks per game to top 1/2 ranked defenses in sacks.

In the last 11 games, they were allowing 2.9 sacks per game to top 1/2 ranked defenses in sacks.

That's only 1/3 less sack per game, but 6 of those 7 games were against division rivals and we all know divisional games mean a little something extra.

Dissect and discern whatever conclusions you'd like from the above.

 

[AdamJT13]

Adam, I was hoping you'd chip in on this thread... I read the article you reposted here when you first posted it, but "Ron From NM's" take surely doesn't square with what I see when I look at the stats sheet...

As a result, I find myself wondering how much expertise Ron has, and how much personal bias goes into his grading of film... are you familiar with his work at all, could you give us some take on if he has anything resembling your credibility, or if he's just another blogger with an opinion??

I have no idea whether "Ron from NM" knows what he's talking about, but it's an opinion to consider from someone who watched what Preston did on every(?) play.

I have some serious doubts about Pro Football Focus' grading methods, too, but they ranked Preston third-to-last among centers and last among centers in run blocking.

I just haven't found anything that says Preston played well last year with Buffalo or this year with Green Bay. He has size and some athletic ability, but that's about it.

 

[silverbear]

I have no idea whether "Ron from NM" knows what he's talking about, but it's an opinion to consider from someone who watched what Preston did on every(?) play.

I have some serious doubts about Pro Football Focus' grading methods, too, but they ranked Preston third-to-last among centers and last among centers in run blocking.

I just haven't found anything that says Preston played well last year with Buffalo or this year with Green Bay. He has size and some athletic ability, but that's about it.

Appreciate the response, Adam... now my enthusiasm is tempered a bit...

I mean, I remember when we signed Montrae Holland, all the posts quoting Broncos fans saying he was their best offensive lineman... sure hasn't helped us much, has he??

 

[SaltwaterServr]

Appreciate the response, Adam... now my enthusiasm is tempered a bit...

I mean, I remember when we signed Montrae Holland, all the posts quoting Broncos fans saying he was their best offensive lineman... sure hasn't helped us much, has he??

I remember mixed reviews on their forums concerning Montrae. Some liked him, some not so much, and others thought his best contribution was them picking up another draft pick in exchange.

 

[slotshot]

hmmm...I still think that the central question is not "Is Preston a good player?". It is, "Is Preston a considerable upgrade vs. Proctor?".

I don't know that we can easil compare the two, but I think that most believe that Preston is indeed an upgrade.

 

[InmanRoshi]

I remember mixed reviews on their forums concerning Montrae. Some liked him, some not so much, and others thought his best contribution was them picking up another draft pick in exchange.

Holland had a reputation around the league as a lazy guy and not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer. It seems maybe that reputation was well earned.

 

[InmanRoshi]

I don't know that we can easil compare the two, but I think that most believe that Preston is indeed an upgrade.

Based on what? Only because we haven't witnessed Preston's suckiness up close and personal like we have Proctor's.

There's always a tendency among fans to believe there just can't be anyone worse than the current persona non-grata .. .but yes, there can be worse.

 

[ArmyCowboy]

hmmm...I still think that the central question is not "Is Preston a good player?". It is, "Is Preston a considerable upgrade vs. Proctor?".

I don't know that we can easil compare the two, but I think that most believe that Preston is indeed an upgrade.

According to ProFootballFocus's offensive linemen ratings, Preston, while hardly stellar, is indeed an upgrade over Procter.

Proctor:

​

Preston:

 

[speedkilz88]

Offensive line (9 or 10)

♦ Locks: LT Chad Clifton, LG Daryn Colledge, C Jason Spitz, RG Josh Sitton, RT Allen Barbre, RT Breno Giacomini, G-T T.J. Lang.

♦ Good bets: C Scott Wells.

♦ On the bubble: T Tony Moll, C-G Duke Preston, T Jamon Meredith, C-G Evan Dietrich-Smith.

♦ Long shots: G Andrew Hartline, T Dane Randolph.

♦ Outlook: Though the fourth-round pick Lang won’t start as a rookie, he looks like a keeper and player to watch down the line.

Wells has recovered well from offseason surgery on his shoulder, and even though he’s only a center, the Packers can keep him if he’s not the starter because Spitz can move if either guard gets hurt. The only way Wells won’t be on the final roster is if he’s traded.

Moll recovered from a bad start in camp last year to make the team and will need a rally in the next two weeks to do so again. He can play four positions but has been almost exclusively a left tackle in camp and had his share of struggles with power rushes.

Meredith is an intriguing talent at tackle, but if Moll comes on, it might be tough to keep him on the final roster. He could make it through waivers to the practice squad.

Preston, a free-agent signee, has played much better in the two preseason games than on the practice field, and can backup center and guard. Dietrich-Smith has been a pleasant surprise as an undrafted rookie and is in the running for a final roster spot.

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com...oster-analysis--Jolly-surges-as-Harrell-fades

 

[dougonthebench]

I wasn't sure how I felt about this signing when I learned about it earlier today... on the one hand, I like his size, I like that he's started 20 games in the NFL, and I like that he plays both guard and center (and has started at both positions)...

But then, as others have noted, those starts were for the Buffalo Bills, who are not exactly an offensive juggernaut, and the Packers cut him well before the first cuts were due... so I was a bit dubious...

So I did what I always do when I'm unsure about how to feel about a particular move, I went and researched the Bills' offense last year... what I learned was quite intriguing, and a bit encouraging...

First off, the Bills' rushing attack was a good deal better then their passing attack was... it was still mediocre, but the passing attack didn't rise to that level... they were 14th in yards per game rushing, and 14th in yards per carry average, a respectable 4.2...

Looking a little closer at the big picture, I learned that Duke's 11 starts were the last 11 games of the season... so I decided to compare their offense over the first 5 games versus the offense over their last 11... here's what I found:

SACKS ALLOWED:

16 in the first 5 games, 3.2 per game... 22 in the last 11, 2.0 per game... the pass protection got better after Preston was made a starter...

RUSHING:

The Bills gained 492 yards on 133 carries in their first 5 games, 98.4 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry... in the last 11 games, they gained 1350 yards on 306 carries, 122.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry...

Overall, it sure looks to me like the problem with the Bills' offense wasn't so much the offensive line, but the quarterback situation (Losman and Edwards), and turnovers (they were -8 on the season)... it also seems pretty clear that the offensive line performed better once Preston was inserted into the starting lineup...

And now, I feel more optimistic about this signing... I think the Boys might have found a semi-decent young veteran to provide some quality depth...

nice job with these stats SB!

 

[Pottsville Maroons]

One thing I wanted to confirm was that injuries to the RB position didn't skew the stats from last year. The only game that Marshawn Lynch missed was wk 17 vs NE and his backup, Fred Jackson, ran 27 times for 136 yards in that game. It would seem that RB production could be considered the "constant" when reviewing the stats.

Looking at Jackson's stats from last year, he began to get a few more carries/game at the same time Preston became the starter, which happened to come after their bye. I don't know the cause/effect relationship there but it appears that the OL shakeup and Jackson's involvement in the offense both contributed to a noticeable improvement in the running game.

Edit: Jackson's game by game rushes:
Att-Yds
10-31
6-17
5-24
7-46
2-16
Preston's insertion into the starting lineup
9-33
10-41
7-15
4-14
12-60
9-56
5-8
DNP
7-31
10-43
27-136 (Lynch DNP)

btw, thanks, Silverbear and everyone else who has contributed to this thread. I, too, am glad they're at least trying to address the problem.

 

[arync]

I really don't care how bad he is. If he gets rid of Proctor, he'll improve that position a ton.

I agree Proctor can play for the band but he should not play for the cowboys ever again

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Good stuff my ursine friend.

For a minute I didn't see that "s"...

 

[ArmyCowboy]

One thing to keep in mind about the Preston signing is that we didn't bring him in to compete for a starting job. He was brought in to compete with Procter.

Therefore, the question is, does he offer more than Cory Procter, who hasn't set the bar very high.

 

[Vinnie2u]

Duke Preston sounds like a singer from a 70's R&B band... However if Proctor does go, It would be the last player or coach on my hitlist from last year...

 

[Idgit]

For a minute I didn't see that "s"...

In Hos's defense, he was stung by a jellyfish.

 

[AsthmaField]

In Hos's defense, he was stung by a jellyfish.

Oh man... that was funny. Now that is a friend!