xwalker
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Great write-up appreciate the effort, though the risk that is being marginalized is that the pushforward loan is only called optimally by the lender (Dallas mgmt) while the player production would force it to be called earlier than projected. The loan can be called unexpectedly or accelerated by poor performance, injury, retirement, age. Do you think that it was planned during the last contract that Ware would decline by 2014? along with Ratliff not being on the roster, along with Miles issues, along with Romo starting to get banged up seriously, along with Carr underperforming? All in 2014? Granted, some of these are just bad contracts, but the restructures masked that. The initial Ware contract was dead on, know it requires manipulation.
Again if all restructures are blanket good, shouldn't every player in the league receive the vet minimum and structure the rest of the salay/bonus over the 5 year amortization? This is not the practice carte blanche across Dallas (Spencer, even Carr and MIles last year) and especially the league.
Part of the issue is that restructures are more necessary for teams that want tons of high-priced contracts. Jax, Oak, Buff, Az, are never going to spend the flat cash to worry about it. Dallas does. But high-prced contracts are inherently coming with a 4-5yr or older vet. This puts the average age around 27. 5-7yr deals expect base to increasing performance until 32-33. There is some inherent risk in that assumption alone.
The cap isn't that hard calc, I just think there are risk with every strategy. And when people don't acknowledge them, that's when they blow up.
Ultimately, you are right in another post. It has allowed Dallas to operate as an 8-8 team and if it was more conservative it's likely the team may have been a 4-12 team. I think there is some value being forced to re-start. This strategies allows prolonging and masking that and don't think that is deniable
The point of my latest post was that it is indeed possible to operate at a level that is above the cap continuously. Yes, the "loan" on some individual players come due, but they get new "loans" against other players such that on average, it works out like my example. The key is the Current Year Expenditures and not the total report Cap number with includes both the Current Expenditures and the Carryover.
The Cowboys are much improved in the area of dead-money. It was about 30M in 2012 and is currently 11M for 2014. It could be down to about 5.5M in 2015 if Austin is a June 1st cut in 2014 and Ware is cut in March.
Their overall cap and roster situation is actually much better than it has been since Garrett become the Head Coach. The dead money is trending down and the average age of the roster is significantly down. Romo, Ware, Witten and the long snapper are the only players under contract that are over 30.